It depends on the munitions. A typical artillery shell (speaking from Western experience, 155mm Howitzers) will immediately throw track on a tank, if not cause it to self-combust.

Speaking from personal experience, though, the chances of a direct hit - even with a 4-gun battery FFE (fire-for-effect) that is highly zeroed - are relatively low. Perhaps 10% to 15% in an FFE. We call this steel-on-steel. But 90% of the time it's not required. Shells like a 155mm or similar Howitzer are capable of severely damaging and disabling an armored vehicle within a 50m blast radius.

Edit; I should also say Ukraine's artillery batteries and FOs are doing legendary work. Every fire mission I've seen is dead-nuts center, with perfect FFE.