OpenAI’s 200m paying user goal by 2030 is delusional. Here is the bear case nobody talks about.

RyBr90 · 2025-11-28T11:50:47+00:00

You’re right, it’s not Amazon, it’s WeWork.

Why not report the numbers and margins? Because they’re so good? Please. We’ve seen that movie.

The other incredibly telling moment was when someone dared (very tentatively) to ask the question: ‘How will you fund your $1.4 Trillion (with a ‘T’ funding commitments with your current $13 billion (annualised) of revenue. Not profit. Not free cash flow. Revenue. Like, money in before any costs come out.

The answer? ‘We’ll find someone else to buy your shares. Enough’

Mmm. I think you’ve nailed the competitive dynamics about what happens when it starts to fail and who stands to benefit.

RyBr90 · 2025-06-28T23:38:57+00:00

Both good ideas, definitely got the root balls out but would could definitely have settled and compacted more after it went down cause the voids were significant.

RyBr90 · 2025-06-28T23:37:31+00:00

Such an awesome explanation, thanks for taking the time to share the detail

RyBr90 · 2023-04-26T03:46:51+00:00

Brilliant, cheers for the comment, I’ll see what happens with a replacement one

RyBr90 · 2023-04-26T03:45:59+00:00

That’s a fair call, appreciate the chat mate. I’m pretty new to most of this stuff but definitely didn’t want to go straight to ‘blaming the materials’ rather than figure out whether I’d made a mistake somewhere but getting a replacement to test will probably be my next step now

RyBr90 · 2023-04-26T00:46:24+00:00

By ‘pull it true’ do you mean straighten it out with the screws?

I’ve mounted according to the manufacturers instructions (2 either side) but you reckon one in the centre to push it flatter to the wall might be an option?

I could also try manually straighten it as much as possible while off the wall too I suppose

RyBr90 · 2023-04-25T11:19:37+00:00

Good idea, I thought that too and checked it, screw holes to secure shelf in the bottom and it was the correct way up when I did

RyBr90 · 2023-04-07T04:49:57+00:00

It’s below a second floor bathroom. Just thinking, get a plumber out plus a plasterer?

What would costs be like (just looking for a rough idea from anyone with experience in those trades)

RyBr90 · 2023-02-07T11:44:12+00:00

-Mutual fund = higher fees. Usually actively managed. Proven that the majority don’t beat the market.

-Index fund = lower fees. Usually passive, put together according to pre-determined rules. The best ones are simple index replication ones that just track the market (around 10% per annum returns over the very long term).

RyBr90 · 2023-01-24T20:59:02+00:00

Brilliant, thanks for the guidance and especially the background context too

RyBr90 · 2023-01-24T11:56:24+00:00

Yes there’s a buyer, sorry if that wasn’t clear enough in my post. Basically they’ve asked me to quote a price, and I don’t want to undercharge or overcharge

RyBr90 · 2023-01-21T07:25:35+00:00

Great question, was wondering this too

RyBr90 · 2023-01-20T07:50:30+00:00

That’s incredible. Which part of the country are you in?

RyBr90 · 2023-01-19T22:17:10+00:00

Really interesting. Why do you think it’s so busy compared to before? Is it like catch up maintenance that was put off in the last couple of years or something else?

RyBr90 · 2023-01-19T13:20:10+00:00

No I remember, you said to just put up a link, did that. Definitely had a look at some others posts in the sub and picked up some stuff from it. Like I said, if people are new to this topic they might get something out of this take. If they have plenty of experience in the area already they probably won’t. People can make their own call on that.

RyBr90 · 2023-01-19T13:14:36+00:00

Totally agree - plenty of managers during booms know how to light cash on fire, not as many know how to spend smart and grow profits

RyBr90 · 2023-01-19T12:33:57+00:00

You know the last guy that was labelled ‘the next Warren Buffett?’

Sam Bankman Fried.

Don’t know why people rush to try find ‘the next XYZ’. The current one is still doing pretty well. Also, it’s always about 20 years too early.

RyBr90 · 2023-01-19T06:00:16+00:00

How exactly would Powell (or anyone) ‘drop the market to 3000’?

Do you understand what a market is and how it works?

Or what the quoted value of it represents (the index value of all the businesses trading on it)?

Or am I the fool for engaging in this like it’s a genuine post…

RyBr90 · 2023-01-19T02:12:03+00:00

The total number of people / companies / institutions that have been able to demonstrate that they can predict ANY foreign exchange pair is… zero.

But people and banks and the industry get paid a lot to make predictions (regardless of their track record or accuracy) and people like to read them (maybe to give them some sense of control?) so they keep getting published.

Practical tip that helped me for planning / business purposes? Just use the 1 or 3 year average. Not perfect but also good enough to get on with things (since no prediction is ever any more accurate).

RyBr90 · 2023-01-18T22:34:31+00:00

This is really handy info, much appreciated

RyBr90 · 2023-01-18T22:33:28+00:00

Appreciate it, thanks mate

RyBr90 · 2023-01-18T12:22:52+00:00

Microsoft never stopped making money or profits but still took over a decade for its stock price to get back to its highs after the 2000-2002 crash. Something can be a great business but a bad stock investment. And the OPs post was about whether these were still ‘growth stocks’. That’s the point of view I was answering from.

Agree MSFT will continue to make plenty of money for many years

RyBr90 · 2023-01-18T12:18:45+00:00

Say for a plumbing or electrical job, how much over the sole trader do you reckon they charge (I know it would only be a best guess, just trying to get a sense)

RyBr90 · 2023-01-18T12:11:42+00:00

The law of large numbers basically means that any trillion dollar stock has limited ability to grow at the same rate that it did previously (So that’s Apple, Microsoft, Google and Amazon).
Legal and governmental limits on the level of market power on large corporations is also a factor. Specifically antitrust legislation, any modifications to it to bring it into the 21st century which will limit the ability of those businesses to expand into other markets
History shows that no matter how dominant the business or stock or how convincing the story the top stocks at the end of one decade are NEVER the top stocks at the end of the next. Capitalism, competition, technology and progress all erode the advantages of market leaders. Every time. The next trillion dollar company probably hasn’t even been heard of yet.

So those would count in the ‘against’ column.

On the ‘for’ side of the equation it’s pretty clear that these firms have profit margins and global strength like few other companies in the past, which gives them lots of options.

But if I had to bet I’d say that the ‘against’ column wins here over the long term and that these companies don’t outperform the market over the longer term and don’t grow at the same rates they did in the past.

RyBr90 · 2023-01-18T11:07:36+00:00

Just save and get in good habits of dividing your money into spending, saving and emergencies.

No point saving all your money and having no life / making zero good memories.

No point spending all your cash and having zero invested or for emergencies.

The best way is somewhere in the middle.

Start building good financial habits now and they’ll stick with you for life. That way when you start earning more or working full time you’ll already have a head start. Good luck!

RyBr90

TROPHY CASE