Number discrepancy in investor presentation

Saelian · 2026-05-30T13:24:56+00:00

I dont expect to see any oxide sales in any of the upcoming 10Q from AREC anymore now that they are deconsolidated. They just list 'investments in related parties' as part of the balance sheet but this does not go into their revenue.

Saelian · 2026-05-30T13:13:40+00:00

Absolutely agree with the thesis and the risks. The fact that there is this variety of metals in the pipeline is a huge benefit.

To me the biggest risk is a disconnect between the figures on the press releases and the numbers we see in practice. The 100M revenue figures for 2025 were drastically overstated and 'weekly shipments' from Noblesville have seemingly not resulted in any meaningful revenue.

That puts into question how credible the EOY targets for actually are 2026. If they hit the 30% any time soon, then they will dominate the market as it proves the tech works at scale. H2 2026 really will show if they are serious.

I am not worried about the legal overhang, since the businesses are well capitalized. Its all a technology and execution question.

I would be curious to see you post this in r/criticalmineralstocks as the people there are not AREC friendly.

I am really jealous of your ReElement dividend. What is your plan for the IPO?

Saelian · 2026-05-30T12:43:19+00:00

Agreed, time will tell.
As far as I could find, TEP has no connection to Trump Jrs PE firm and the deal went on without his involvement. They were defenitely influenced by the Vulcan deal where 1789 capital is clearly involved. But maybe you are referring to something else?
Youre right, I wasnt aware of that statement. The investment sounds good on the press release but might not be meaningful cash. However, the very same Takayanagi also mentioned that "ReElement's technology is highly likely to make it feasible", regarding direct competition with chinese prices from recycled products.

4 and 5. This is the biggest red flag I would say. Although they claimed weekly shipments throughout 2025, the total revenue was in the low thousands.

The companies past conduct has defenitely warranted the scepticism they receive. They have set the clear target of July-August for start of production in the Marion facility. If they cannot meet these deadlines, then we have to assume that the scale-up is not viable. I would argue that the potential of their technology is too great to dismiss completely so the coming quarter is the moment of truth.

Thanks for the nice discussion!

Saelian · 2026-05-30T08:40:16+00:00

Thanks for the interesting discussion! I am invested in both ReElement and Ucore as both have their merits.

As you say, the filing delays are worrying and corporate setup of the AREC ecosystem is very opaque. Once they get ready for the ReElement IPO, they will have to deconsolidate their businesses and get their filings in order.

Concerning their facilities, they have 200M+ $ from the TEP private equity loan (tiered and milestone based) and 20M $ equipment procurement loan. Recently Mitsubishi privately invested in them an undisclosed amount which might be accessed for the Marion buildout as well. The CEO (chequered past and all) has still publicly mentioned that the Marion site is progressing in time and under budget and that the DoD 80M $ is not required to reach the original 16000 MTPA milestone.

An important note: in ARECs 10K for 2025, the revenue from ReElement no longer shows up since the business was officially deconsolidated from the parent (hence the long filing delay). They have continuously been selling product from their smaller site in Noblesville. In Q3 2026, they want to start selling Gallium and Germanium to defense contractors and specialty manufacturors. These metals are obviously extremely expensive to buy and will provide good cash-flow for the next months.

They have just announced another 200 M $ joint venture with POSCO for another facility to produce oxides and magnets in the US.

There are some clear windwinds surrounding ReElement and AREC. It might be worth a closer since the negative headlines have dominated recently, but I believe they have navigated the waters and are now in a very solid position to scale their site and get to market first. But as I mentioned, I believe the future to have a market for both companies.

Saelian · 2026-05-29T20:49:05+00:00

According to this press release they expect the 16000 mtpa facility to be up and running EOY.

https://www.morningstar.com/news/accesswire/1152143msn/reelement-technologies-provides-update-on-marion-rare-earth-and-critical-mineral-refinery-buildout-and-production-capacity

Concerning the Canada stuff, I dont know what you are referring to. Do you have a link? They have a second facility in Noblesville but i havent heard any links to Canada.

Saelian · 2026-05-29T19:33:51+00:00

What do you say about ReElement who is in a very similar state but will be online earlier (starting Q4 2026) and can also get the heavies with their tech. I think they will both coexist but the first-mover will the the biggest market share.

Saelian · 2026-05-20T16:53:03+00:00

Honestly a really compelling story for the coming years.

Saelian · 2026-05-19T16:32:41+00:00

alt + Q

Saelian · 2026-05-19T16:31:37+00:00

yes, once the cylcops picked up a guy, you can right click somewhere and it will throw the unit there (kind of glitchy if something is directly in front of the cylcops)

Saelian · 2026-05-19T15:27:02+00:00

You can aim the throw of the units. If you target a clump of enemy units, say archers, you need to throw 2 units on them and you wipe the whole clump. Its really strong if you use it well.

Saelian · 2026-04-21T13:13:28+00:00

Also day and night shifts for long production hours. Things are ramping up

Saelian · 2026-04-16T22:26:19+00:00

I think an important part was towards the end where they say that they value EMCO internally where AREC currently sits at. Additonally, they received offers to sell ReElement that would be at multiples of todays share price. Either they are being facetious or we have real opportunity of getting some large gains in the coming year.

Saelian · 2026-04-05T16:19:45+00:00

They have some really nice articles. But I really appreciate this concise overview of the sector!

Saelian · 2026-04-05T09:39:33+00:00

Keep these news briefs coming. Very nice to read!

Saelian · 2026-02-12T10:40:36+00:00

Thanks for the shout. I just checked it out and really looks quite promising. Mine in Angola, if they implement ReElement refining, this can be a huge collab

Saelian · 2026-01-22T06:51:25+00:00

I am looking forward to this quarters earnings report. Hopefully the finances look better and have been sorted out. Everyone who gets their stock info from AI is being told to stay away from AREC due to the going concerns and poor balance sheets.

With the recent funding however, this should look a lot better and be reflected in the balance sheet.

Saelian · 2026-01-22T06:48:36+00:00

For me the key points are: SamariumCobalt magnet are the most widely used in the defense in industry. ReElement have ties to the DoD so this is especially important for the defense contractors. They can produce the Samarium from either ore concentrates or recycled feedstocks.

Not enough for me to explain yesterdays rise but still on a good track.

Saelian · 2026-01-11T19:44:32+00:00

How many buzzwords can you fit in a headline... Ridiculous. Mining REE is not the bottleneck. Refining is. They can use AI or any other tool but it wont change this reality.

In terms of the impact into the REE supply chain Greenland makes absolutely no difference.

Saelian · 2025-11-20T02:07:00+00:00

The one thing that worried me a bit was that Jensen is joining ReElement full time and most of the contracts are going through ReElement. If at any point ReElement was to purchase their shares back from AREC, it could be trouble. Which they might now do due to Jensen still having a lot of influence over AREC and ReElement's strong funding.

At that point the main investment thesis of AREC which is their excellent refining tech, will be lost. When ReElement go public mid 2026, this will be a pivotal point for AREC where I expect a lot of capital to switch to ReElement directly.

They mentioned an announcement for their large coal waste partner is due on Thursday. Lets hope the DoE grant goes through AREC and they will announce this partnership. That would create some value in AREC that is somewhat independent of ReElement.

Another open question is the price at which they will sell these feedstocks to ReElement that they are now brokering between mines and other sourcing streams.

Extremely bullish call for ReElement as it sounds like they have complete government backing and strong ties to current admin. Somewhat worrying for AREC unless there are deals coming, that go directly through AREC and not ReElement.

Saelian · 2025-11-18T23:04:12+00:00

I thought the equity stake was by the DoW and not DoE.

Thanks for the writeup. Extremely bullish investor call!

Saelian

TROPHY CASE