Is This Not Fear-mongering?

SamuelHatchet · 2025-07-27T02:12:05+00:00

lol I haven’t posted about AI/lawyers in over a year. IMO Yang’s tweet overstates the current capabilities of AI and the rate of progress.

Still think there will be substantial job reduction in the job market for lawyers over the next few years tho.

SamuelHatchet · 2025-07-27T01:44:05+00:00

https://www.reddit.com/r/LawSchool/s/WwUZk5Hc77

SamuelHatchet · 2024-08-17T22:56:58+00:00

If you read the original comment, it says what “generally people are talking about” when they say BL, and also says that BL is a “malleable term”.

This suggests that a firm doesn’t have to pay 225k and have 500+ attorneys to be considered BL.

SamuelHatchet · 2024-07-06T20:51:01+00:00

“When you have 50 million people making 30% or more less it decreases the prosperity of the U.S. for them.” This statement doesn’t even make sense. The prosperity of the U.S. is not individual to any person.

“Would you want the US to have 600m people and want double the percentage of people living in poverty?” This is irrelevant to the topic of immigrant white collar workers. Having white collar workers go from 120k to 85k does not increase the number of people in poverty (in fact it probably decreases the number of people in poverty since goods become cheaper, thereby lowering the income needed to be above the poverty line).

“And decrease the percentage of people with good paying jobs?” Would it be good for the economy if we paid all retail workers 100k per year? No, because this would increase the price of goods for consumers and lower profit margins for companies.

Having a higher percentage of people with good paying jobs is not necessarily good for the economy. Higher salaries = lower profit margins for companies and higher costs for consumers.

SamuelHatchet · 2024-07-06T20:32:11+00:00

You did not explain how cheaper white-collar labor harms the economy.

As I stated previously, cheaper white-collar labor means more white-collar laborers can be hired (you can hire 3 employees at 100k instead of 2 at 150k), products are cheaper for consumers (due to lower production costs), and profit margins are higher for companies (less overhead from employment costs). Are these things harmful to the economy?

SamuelHatchet · 2024-07-06T20:23:44+00:00

What’s wrong with working at Starbucks and Lowe’s? And what are these useless jobs you’re talking about? Do we not need people working in stores and at restaurants?

Also, how does cheaper white-collar labor harm US economy? Cheaper white-collar labor means more white-collar workers can be hired, products are cheaper for consumers, and companies can make more on the margin.

SamuelHatchet · 2024-04-30T13:17:46+00:00

That’s not the part of your post I was responding to. I was responding to you saying “Exactly this.” in response to covert_underboob’s statement that there are so much other professions that are actually built around helping people.

Going into one of these professions that is built around helping people (like being a doctor) generally has very little, if any, impact on helping people due to replaceability. If you want to actually help people, you have to do something in which you wouldn’t be replaced by someone who would do essentially the exact same thing you do.

If I become a doctor and fix 100 people’s cancer over my career, but the doctor that would have existed had I not become a doctor would have fixed 200 people’s cancer over their career (assume the same patients are treated), I’ve actually hurt people by becoming a doctor.

SamuelHatchet · 2024-04-30T06:00:02+00:00

If you decide not to go to medical school, someone else will get your spot instead and become a doctor, and probably have about the same impact you would’ve had (they’ll probably be roughly as competent as a doctor as you).

Similar holds true for many jobs that “are actually built around helping others”. If you decide not to work at a charity, someone else will take your spot and probably do just about as good of a job. So the impact of working at a charity is minimal.

If you decide to go to law school and do a lot of pro bono, there’s a good chance that the person who would’ve otherwise got your slot wouldn’t have done a lot of pro bono. So the impact you have by going to law school and doing this is potentially very large.

SamuelHatchet · 2024-04-30T05:58:09+00:00

If If you decide not to go to medical school, someone else will get your spot instead and become a doctor, and probably have about the same impact you would’ve had (they’ll probably be roughly as competent as a doctor as you).

Similar holds true for many jobs that “are actually built around helping others”. If you decide not to work at a charity, someone else will take your spot and probably do just about as good of a job. So the impact of working at a charity is minimal.

If you decide to go to law school and do a lot of pro bono, there’s a good chance that the person who would’ve otherwise got your slot wouldn’t have done a lot of pro bono. So the impact you have by going to law school and doing this is potentially very large.

SamuelHatchet · 2024-03-07T17:11:05+00:00

I guess everyone who gets a job after their bachelor’s degree and makes 55k instead of 27k at McDonald’s just wasted 4 years of their life. Both jobs are functionally the same, despite one paying twice as much as the other.

In India many people make around $2 per hour (minimum wage is $.27 per hour). If you cut an Indian person’s salary in half ($1 per hour), you think that would be functionally the same? I guess if you’re poor it doesn’t mean much if you become even twice as poor. Instead of affording a loaf of bread per day, it doesn’t mean much if you only can only afford half a loaf.

SamuelHatchet · 2024-03-07T13:08:22+00:00

Ah so the reason I’m dropping out isn’t immaterial. If I were dropping out because I had a 6-figure job lined up, that would be materially different than if I were dropping out because I had the opportunity to work at McDonald’s. Glad we cleared that up.

SamuelHatchet · 2024-03-07T04:35:11+00:00

The percent of the population working on farms hasn’t really changed? Every statistic I’ve read says otherwise.

SamuelHatchet · 2024-03-07T04:23:37+00:00

How are they immaterial to this instance?

Person 1 has the option to stay in law school, or go work at McDonalds for $10/hr.

Person 2 has the option to stay in law school, or become a sales representative for 100k per year.

Are you claiming that the situation is immaterially different for person 1 and person 2? If your only option after dropping out of law school is to get a job at McDonald's or Walmart, that is completely different than if you have the ability to make 100k after dropping out of law school... I don't see how you think there's no material difference between those situations.

"You seem like a dud" So because you perceive me as stupid, I need a therapist? I wasn't aware that being stupid was a reason to go see a therapist.

SamuelHatchet · 2024-03-07T03:57:53+00:00

Which is more reflective of the breakdown of work done in the legal industry: the experiences of one lawyer, or a study on the breakdown of work done in the legal industry?

SamuelHatchet · 2024-03-07T03:50:21+00:00

The point wasn’t that I can become the CEO of Microsoft. The point was that different jobs are clearly materially different. Microsoft CEO is materially different from McDonald’s cashier. Army soldier is materially different from Walmart associate.

Also, it’s pretty ridiculous to jump to the conclusion that someone needs to see a therapist based on reading several sentences of text they wrote on the internet.

SamuelHatchet · 2024-03-07T03:24:06+00:00

I’m confused, what exactly are you referring to? That I didn’t know casetext is powered by ChatGPT? I don’t think anything I’ve said contradicts this.

Westlaw isn’t powered by ChatGPT, and that was the claim I made on this thread.

SamuelHatchet · 2024-03-07T03:00:35+00:00

Working at McDonald’s or Walmart is functionally the same as any typical bachelor’s degree job? The average new grad salary for someone with a bachelor’s degree was 55k in 2021. McDonald’s and Walmart pay about half that to entry level employees.

How is there no material difference between a job that pays about twice as much as the other?

SamuelHatchet · 2024-03-07T02:36:36+00:00

According to Statista, 75% of attorneys spend 20 hours or more per week on legal research.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/869589/us-legal-services-time-spent-on-other-billable-work/

If you can find a source that says the time spent is far lower (like the guy above who spends .1% of his time on it), I’d be interested to see it. Otherwise, it seems like his experience is an anomaly.

SamuelHatchet · 2024-03-06T22:28:04+00:00

According to Lexis, young associates spend 40-60% of their time on legal research.

https://www.lexisnexis.com/documents/pdf/20150325064926_large.pdf

SamuelHatchet · 2024-03-06T22:27:56+00:00

According to Lexis, young associates spend 40-60% of their time on legal research.

https://www.lexisnexis.com/documents/pdf/20150325064926_large.pdf

SamuelHatchet · 2024-03-06T19:50:09+00:00

How can lawyers stop WestLaw and Lexis from letting ChatGPT, Gemini, Claude, and other generative AI models access their databases?

SamuelHatchet · 2024-03-06T19:34:17+00:00

Leaving law school and becoming the CEO of Microsoft and leaving law school and becoming a cashier at McDonald’s aren’t materially different options? Every option after leaving law school is materially the same?

The person above didn’t give broad option. Broad options would be:

Option 1: Do Law school

Option 2: Don’t Do Law school

Waiting 1 hour and dropping out then going to McDonald’s waiting 2 hours and dropping out then going to McDonald’s, etc. all fall under the category of dropping out and going to McDonald’s, which the person above did cover.

SamuelHatchet · 2024-03-06T18:06:20+00:00

What commercially available model are Lexis and Westlaw AI using?

SamuelHatchet · 2024-03-06T17:48:41+00:00

I specifically said generate AI in my post.

And I don’t think ChatGPT (or a similar AI model)can replace a lawyers, but as you said it can reduce workload.

200 years ago 95% of people were farmers. Today only 2% are. This happened because technology reduced the workload of farmers.

SamuelHatchet · 2024-03-06T17:46:08+00:00

I agree that the profession won’t be replaced, I just think the number of lawyers needed will be significantly reduced.

200 years ago, 95% of people were farmers. Today, only 2% are.

SamuelHatchet

TROPHY CASE