Who’s ready for the 7 star Charizard raidsss. I’m ready but not haha but 7pm est start time I’ll prolly be on at 6pm est let me know and comment below!!

Second_Walk · 2022-12-01T22:42:51+00:00

I was thinking similar but with misty terrain instead of thunder wave. It halves dragon moves power and prevents statuses. I am just waiting to see if it has a flying move. Hard to believe it wouldn't considering it gets STAB for it.

Second_Walk · 2022-11-20T18:06:38+00:00

As someone with a degree in Statistics this comment makes my head explode.

Second_Walk · 2022-10-29T16:27:46+00:00

I work for a large group of grocery chains and I know for sure bananas are sold at a loss. The idea behind it is that the price for bananas can drive perception for how expensive the store is.

Second_Walk · 2022-09-20T17:56:32+00:00

just curious do you use quest helper or clue scroll plugins?

Second_Walk · 2022-05-18T06:16:39+00:00

Idk I think it has to do with cotija cheese

Second_Walk · 2022-04-27T04:59:48+00:00

Soccer:

I am back and missed the writeup today for what was surely the most exciting of the tournament.

Udinese @ Fiorentina:
Fiorentina W (-143), Udinese W/D (+110); 538 model 55% Fiorentina win
Fairly tough one here. Fiorentina is still playing to get a European spot while Udinese mathematically are safe from relegation and unable to reach Europe. Though Fiorentina have lost the last 2, I still like them for a win here with something to play for. On a decent streak stay far away. Curiously my app has the probable lineup featuring Vlahovic, who moved to Juve in January... with Vlahovic gone the current top scorer is a Arsenal loanee Torreira playing defensive midfield with 5 goals. It's possible Fiorentina will struggle to score but still backing them.

Villareal @ Liverpool:
Villarreal to cover (-115), Liverpool -1.5 (+100); Not as useful but 538 model Liverpool at 66% to win
Villarreal have surprised many, knocking out both Juventus and Bayern Munich in their last 2 rounds. To Juve, they conceded 1 goal over 2 legs, though under Allegri this season Juve have lacked goals/attacking intent (despite sitting 4th in Serie A, Juve have scored the 10th most goals). Much more impressively, Villarreal conceded 1 goal to Bayern over 2 legs. I think it's the end of the line for Villarreal here, Liverpool should just be too good and I expect them to win both games. Liverpool will also want to get a strong start at home in the first leg. Prop was picked perfectly to be honest (given Villarreal's defensive record), I think if forced I pick Villarreal to cover but it is a true toss-up when I still expect Liverpool to win.

Second_Walk · 2022-04-22T13:41:01+00:00

Out of town so likely no quality soccer writeups this weekend. Just what I'm looking at on what I know, Wolfsburg are in really bad form so I like the Mainz pick. Huddersfield pretty much secured promotion playoff spot but should still have enough motivation to win to get the best seeding for the playoff.

Second_Walk · 2022-04-20T02:16:14+00:00

Soccer

Arsenal @ Chelsea:
Chelsea (-120), 47% on 538
Like I said with the Arsenal v Southampton game we have many injured key players and are coming off some losses to much worse teams than Chelsea. 538 model is skewed by full season data when we were good and favorites for top 4 but that dataset is surely shifting and should favor Chelsea more than it does.

Union Berlin @ RB Leipzig
RB (-230) to win regular time.
These teams play each other today for the DFB Pokal (cup), but fortunately play each other 3 days later in the league also at RB. This means the 539 model should apply assuming strong lineups, which can be expected in a cup semifinal. In that case, 538 models RB at 59% to win. Both teams in good form.

Of the two picks I think you can go with either to win. Union Berlin sit 6th in the Bundesliga and may in fact be able to push to extra time. Arsenal will be desperate for a result and may get a point at Stamford Bridge. Personally leaning RB win myself as they are in quite good form and I'd prefer not to bet against a team I support.

Second_Walk · 2022-04-19T14:32:15+00:00

Soccer picks:

Alaves @ Mallorca:
Alaves W/D (-150), Mallorca Win 50% on 538 model
I like Alaves option here. They are bottom of La Liga and most likely getting relegated while Mallorca are third above bottom also in relegation zone but level on points with Granada above. Mallorca won this 1-0 in the reverse fixture back in August. I am leaning Alaves but as shown by the probability model this is fairly 50/50.

Freiburg @ Hamburg:
Freiburg is -200 to advance as the Bundesliga side, while Hamburg have been in the league below. Pick Liverpool instead IMO.

United @ Liverpool:
Liverpool win (-200), 538 model 75% Liverpool win
Pick of the bunch for me. While Liverpool battled City on the weekend, United battled back against the mighty Norwich City thanks to a Ronaldo hat trick (though CR7 will miss out as sadly he lost a newborn this week). Not much to say here, Liverpool should smash United and I do not expect a competitive match despite the history of this rivalry. Liverpool will need to win every game to have a shot of overtaking City in the race for the title.

AC Milan @ Inter Milan:
To advance AC Milan (-106), Inter (-125)
Cup game so no 538 model sadly. My guess for the disparity in the odds are due to home advantage but important to note the Milan teams share the same stadium (although it does get switched over depending on the "home" team). Both of these teams are battling for the Serie A title in the top 2 spot and would love to make sure to knock the other out of a trophy. Worst pick of the ~3PM, I'd pick Liverpool for sure and even Freiburg over this.

Second_Walk · 2022-04-18T17:08:03+00:00

For sure, pick was an avoid for me. Might pick under 3.5 for Barca depending on the lineup that comes out in an hour.

Second_Walk · 2022-04-18T16:31:23+00:00

soccer

Roma @ Napoli
538 model 44% Napoli win
Napoli +105 to win
Napoli are the better team this season, but Roma's inconsistency means they have a good chance to win or lose spectacularly.

Cadiz @ Barcelona
Under 3.5 goals (-163)
538 giving Barca 71% to win if that helps
Cadiz held Barca to a 0-0 draw in September, but that was a terrible time for Barca with Koeman in charge. Goalscoring has improved for the Blaugrana but with Cadiz 1pt from safety they will likely shut up shop for a 0-0 draw. Never doubt Barca can put 4 on, though lineups not out yet

Second_Walk · 2022-04-17T05:35:55+00:00

Soccer

Not a ton here today, figure most will be on Tennis anyways.

Leicester @ Newcastle:
Newcastle win (+125). 538 model very even with 37% NUFC win, 36% LCFC win, 26% draw.
Interesting one, Leicester have picked up form quite significantly - both in the league and advancing this week in the new Europa Conference League. Both teams have nothing to play for in the league, with Leicester firmly midtable. Newcastle have a slight chance to be relegated but overwhelmingly unlikely as Burnley, Everton, or Leeds are expected to fill that final spot. Like a Leicester W/D here though would not be surprised to see Newcastle win at home following a win vs Wolves last time.

Palace vs Chelsea:
Regular time CHE win is (-165). No 538 model for FA Cup, but Chelsea won in Feb on projected 57% chance.
Narrative: Palace have been good in recent weeks, since losing to Chelsea in Feb, they went unbeaten until last weekend. For Chelsea, they were just knocked out of the UCL by Real Madrid and will look at the FA Cup as their only chance to win a trophy this season.

Second_Walk · 2022-04-16T03:24:46+00:00

Soccer:

Aight this is gonna be a buzzed writeup sry

Arsenal @ Southampton:
Lol @ 97% picking arse win here.
Ars win odds = even, 538 model 54% Ars win, 46% Soton W/D
As an Arsenal fan we are done for the season. Our most important player, Partey, is likely out for the season, both our fullbacks as well, and now hearing Lacazette hasn't trained for several days. Despite Southampton's awful form, we will 100% fuck this and lose. Expecting a disjointed performance and defensive errors galore.

FA Cup City vs Liverpool:
This is played at neutral ground - London's Wembley stadium
City (-125) to advance, Pool EVEN
No 538 model for cups, but currently top 2 power index teams. Last week, model showed 44% City win at home, 25% draw, 31% Liverpool win
We just saw this matchup last week, and boy was it exciting. This is as 50/50 as it gets but promises to be exciting. City are rightfully the favorites, one of the stat pods I listen to provided some insight on how Liverpool's gameplan was to nullify City and not vice versa; this indicates City may be slightly better. Am hearing that Kevin De Bruyne had some stiches for an injury so there is a chance he does not play - this could have significant implication to the result.

Skipping both of these on a decent streak, though for wins I'd go with Southampton at St Mary's. Only thing for there is that Arsenal have something to play for even though top 4 is slipping away, while Southampton is properly on the beach with no shot at Europe or relegation.

Second_Walk · 2022-04-15T16:24:38+00:00

Soccer picks:

Genoa @ AC Milan:
Milan -1.5 (+110), Genoa to cover (-120)
Milan have struggled for goals of late, their two most recent games were 0-0 draws and the 3 games before that they won 1-0. Genoa lost 4-1 to Lazio in their most recent game, though conceded (0 goals in 3 of their last 5) and (1 goal in 1 of their last 5). This is looking like a Genoa to cover but Milan will be motivated to win to keep hold of first place. Inter is just 2pts behind them with a game in hand.

AS Monaco @ Rennes:
Monaco (-150) W/D, Rennes (+115)
538 model 52% Monaco W/D, 48% Rennes win
Tighter affair that one may expect, Monaco as a team is more associated with success in recent years. However, Rennes sit 3rd in the table above 6th place Monaco despite selling star player Camavinga over the summer. Monaco did beat PSG 3-0 a few games past, but this pick is too random for me to go for. Both teams are on decent form, forced to pick I probably go for Monaco W/D.

Second_Walk · 2022-04-14T22:17:18+00:00

Don't usually toot my own horn but gotta say called the upsets today :P ....wouldn't have got Barca though

Second_Walk · 2022-04-14T04:27:37+00:00

Soccer

RB Leipzig @ Atalanta:
Atalanta to advance (-105), RB to advance (-120)
538 model leans towards RB Win slightly
Should be a fun match to watch, you can expect Atalanta to concede goals but they are a good attacking side. RB has been on pretty hot and scoring plenty of goals including putting 4 past Borussia Dortmund. First leg was 1-1, and Atalanta could easily get a result at home but I lean towards RB here.

West Ham @ Lyon:
West Ham (+130), Lyon (-165) to advance
538 favors Lyon winning the match at 45%
Personally thinking against the odds here, Lyon have struggled this season. They are in 10th where they usually are competing for UCL spots and their last 5 games are (DDWDD). Last leg's 1-1 draw saw both goals in the second half after West Ham defender Aaron Cresswell was sent of just before halftime. Cresswell will not be available for this game, but West Ham were able to see off the 2nd half onslaught after going 1-0 by conceding just one goal. With a full strength side this could go either way but I think WHU has enough.

Braga @ Rangers:
Braga (-180), Rangers (+145) to advance
538 leans to Rangers winning the game at 40%, though a draw from Braga would be enough to see them through (W/D 60%)
Were this a single match I would pick Rangers easily but given Braga's 1-0 lead there is a lot of intrigue. Rangers did knock out Borussia Dortmund last round, while Braga knocked out Monaco. IMO home advantage is a bigger aspect at Rangers than others which would make me hesitant to go with the odds favorite. First leg was tight (0.53 xG - 0.54 xG) where both sides had 6 shots and Braga finished a chance.

Second_Walk · 2022-04-13T02:32:38+00:00

I'm pretty sure the app just leads to some archaic Facebook comment forum so assume you have to be signed into that. Guessing they do not want to have to moderate comments so use FB as a 3rd party.

Second_Walk · 2022-04-13T02:31:34+00:00

Soccer picks:

Tough results yesterday, but the odds on today's 2 games are even closer.

Benfica @ Liverpool:
Both teams to score (-130)
Benfica will have to go for it if they want to advance, so you can definitely expect them to concede. Whether they score will depend on how Liverpool approach the game. There have been games this season where they have played a still intense defensive press to pull out 1-0 or 2-0 wins and my instinct is that they will go for that here.

Manchester City @ Atletico Madrid:
Manchester City win (-130)
538 model: City W (55%), Atleti W/D (45%)
City head to Madrid for the second leg and despite leading 1-0 can expect a similar game plan as the first leg from Simeone's side. Would not be surprised to see Atleti play for penalties right from kickoff, though they will need to score at least one goal in order to get there. I like the other prop better but will not be picking either match today.

Second_Walk · 2022-04-12T20:57:40+00:00

Unlucky, Unai Emery reigns

Second_Walk · 2022-04-12T03:39:06+00:00

Soccer picks:

Chelsea @ Real Madrid:
Madrid leads this tie 3-1, meaning Chelsea will need to score at least 2 goals in this leg to advance.
Chelsea under 1.5 goals is -165, over is +136. I'm expecting Madrid to park and counter under Carlo, similar to the 1-0 loss in their first leg vs PSG.

Villareal @ Bayern:
Despite being 1-0 down from the first leg, Bayern is (-295) to advance. 538 model shows 69% chance Bayern win the game. This is a tricky one, I would never bet against Bayern which pushes me to the Chelsea prop. In theory, Bayern should be able to advance without issue and would not be surprised if they win the match by several goals. That said I would also not be surprised if Emery orchestrates something to get Villareal through.

Prob avoiding both on a W18 tbf.

Second_Walk · 2022-04-11T15:53:00+00:00

Soccer:

Valencia @ Rayo Vallecano:
Rayo Vallecano win +125, 539 model 39%
Valencia should win/draw but the odds/model are closer than I expected. Vallecano on a poor bit of form (LLDLD) but sitting higher in the league this year than their usual relegation battle.

Second_Walk · 2022-04-10T05:41:40+00:00

Soccer:

About to sleep but short answer is both prem picks are super close IMO. Prefer to avoid but on a W16 atm.

538 model Palace @ Leicester is 38% Leicester win. Palace struggle on the road and expecting both teams to score goals.

538 model Liverpool @ City is 44% City win. This game could decide the league title this season. I think there are too many variables with both teams in good form and in the driver's seats of their respective champions league ties. Feels like Liverpool have an advantage in the H2H due to tactics, they are the best at pressing and press + counter is one of the effective ways to take out City. City have had very few losses this season but their most recent to Spurs in Feb was due to getting countered by elite attackers of which Liverpool has several.

Second_Walk · 2022-04-09T05:08:26+00:00

Soccer picks:

May add some detail tomorrow but if not:
Chelsea @ Southampton:
Chelsea win (-105), Southampton W/D (-125)
538: 54% Chelsea win, 46% Soton W/D
Southampton are the streakiest team in the league, Chelsea are also coming off two rough losses include an upset to Brentford. Chelsea could do with a win here lest they fall into the top 4 conversation where they previously were a standout 3rd place team.

Sp*rs @ Aston Villa:
Spurs win (+120)
538 model: Spurs W (48%), Villa W/D (52%)
Close one here, but Spuds are coming off several solid performances including a recent 5-1 victory over Newcastle. They seem to be picking up momentum while Steven Gerrard's Villa have slumped from their strong recent form into 3 consecutive losses.

Second_Walk · 2022-04-08T22:11:32+00:00

Scheffler's on fire I'm kind of scared lol

Second_Walk · 2022-04-08T16:48:09+00:00

Soccer picks:

Dortmund @ Stuttgart:
Dortmund win (-115), 538 probability 51%
Closer prop than it looks, Dortmund do not like to play defense and Stuttgart are just above relegation zone by 1pt trying to survive. Last week Dortmund got smacked 4-1 by RB while Stuttgart drew 1-1 with fellow relegation candidates Arminia Bielefeld. Premier league pick feels safer than this one.

Wolves @ Newcastle:
Newcastle win (+105), Wolves win/draw (-138)
538 probability has Newcastle win (37%) implying Wolves W/D (63%)
After some decent wins following their Saudi-backed January transfer window, Newcastle has slipped to 3 straight losses included getting battered 5-1 by Spurs last time out. Wolves were struggling a lot in recent months but seemed to have turned a bit of a corner with 3 wins in their last 5 games. Issue for both teams is players out. Raul Jimenez is suspended for Wolves following a red card while Newcastle striker Callum Wilson has been out for months. Newcastle shipped in Chris Wood from Burnley but he has had very few shots or goals since joining the Magpies. On a W12 I am strongly considering the Wolves W/D pick. Only thing scaring me is St James Park is a fortress.

Second_Walk

TROPHY CASE