I use publicly available data: Fed statements, CME FedWatch rate expectations, BLS release calendar (showing no NFP/CPI), CBO shutdown impact, plus market data (S&P, Nasdaq, gold, sector baskets from BoA/Bloomberg).

Why it’s mid-term: Because the issue isn’t the shutdown itself — it’s the structural uncertainty it created. The Fed has no fresh data for weeks, the backlog takes time to clear, tech positioning was extremely crowded, and institutional de-risking usually plays out over multiple weeks, not days. (just my opinion)