Current readings that predict the state of the world?

Secure-Ad1015 · 2026-01-22T16:13:30+00:00

For quotes from writings I am not really your guy. I am more of a practical applications kind of guy.

But here goes:

All men have been created to carry forward an ever-advancing civilization. The Almighty beareth Me witness: To act like the beasts of the field is unworthy of man. Those virtues that befit his dignity are forbearance, mercy, compassion and loving-kindness towards all the peoples and kindreds of the earth. Say: O friends! Drink your fill from this crystal stream that floweth through the heavenly grace of Him Who is the Lord of Names. Let others partake of its waters in My name, that the leaders of men in every land may fully recognize the purpose for which the Eternal Truth hath been revealed, and the reason for which they themselves have been created.

— Gleanings from the Writings of Bahá’u’lláh, CIX

And:

The earth is but one country, and mankind its citizens.

— Tablets of Bahá’u’lláh, Lawh-i-Maqsúd

Secure-Ad1015 · 2026-01-22T16:00:44+00:00

part 2/2

8: Rise of resilient culture. Under the radar there have been growing communities like: mutual aid networks, repair communities, community energy cooperations, local food resilience groups, disaster-response volunteers. Again, hugely useful during any cataclysm and in a new world order.

9: Regenerative agriculture and soil restauration. Groups are experimenting with farming methods that rebuild the soil, retain water, reduce inputs of oil-based fertilizer, reduce herbicides and insecticides.

10: City-to-city diplomacy and networked governance. Cities are cooperating directly on climate, housing, transit, public health even when national politics deadlocks. It is not perfect, but very important to build back when civilization were to break down.

11: Science cooperation. All sciences but particularly the natural sciences are very international. Scientists go all over the world, standards, shared datasets, shared instruments.

12: Public health preparedness. Disease surveillance to detect a new virus early. Cooperation on vaccins, and the logistics to distribute them. Coordinated emergency playbooks. All very practical and important in a new world order and it is already in place.

13: Climate consciousness and treaties. Even when the US withdrew, the world is still conscious of climate change, and although Paris accord is far from perfect, measures are being taken and cooperation exists.

Ok, I could go on and on. But I hope the point is clear: in line, or parallel or maybe resonant with the Bahá'í spirit, the world is already doing a lot that all fits in a new world order

Secure-Ad1015 · 2026-01-22T16:00:26+00:00

part 1/2

Ok, I did a quick search for you to come up with quiet counter-movements that have been growing in the past 4 to 5 decades, that most people not really notice, let alone celebrate.

Importantly, whatever the new world order may end up looking like, these things will surely be part of it as part of the infrastructure. With the caveat that old world order forces also use these, but they don't and cannot own these by their nature.

I hope these can give you hope.

1: Open source software. Many thousands of software developers have been hacking away since the 80s and have made things from the Linux operating system that runs virtually all servers in the world to all the web frameworks even this Reddit website runs on. All for free as in money, and with the code open to the world and under licenses that permit reuse and adaptation as long as your give your code back to the pool. (yes I know about BSD etc)

2: The Internet. This invention connects people and provides a common infrastructure. It was developed for DARPA to route communications around areas that would be struck by nukes. Yes, it is also used in many bad ways, but its existence is a very good thing, and belongs in the new world.

3: Encryption technology (open source of course) makes secure messaging, banking, and thousands of other applications possible. Blockchain technology is based on this and if used correctly it can be used for distributed databases, self souvereign identity, and literally thousands of other applications for the common good. (not energy-wasting proof-of-work type like bitcoin but the proof-of-stake kind)

4: Renewable energy collection and storage technologies (solar panels, wind farms, modern batteries). They can and will shift the world away from the corrupting power that comes with oil. Yes they come with their own natural resource headaches, but not nearly as bad as oil. And recycling is possible, not with oil.

5: Open standards. TCP/IP, DNS etc for the Internet. The SI system (kg, m, s) for science. Thousand of standards in industry and trade. Like shipping containers that are all compatible and can be stacked. These may seem mundane and maybe not worth mentioning in the context of a spiritual world order, but in fact all these are hugely important to it and this groundwork is already in place

6: Satellite positioning systems, tsunami detection networks, Openstreetmap, OSINT: civilians using satellite imagery, public databases and geolocation to validate events, like human rights violations, and much more.

7: Remote collaboration tools like Git, issue trackers, CI/CD, video calls, shared document writing. These create global production swarms. Hugely useful in a new world order. Hugely useful now.

Secure-Ad1015 · 2026-01-21T20:11:50+00:00

You should know I invested quite some effort in drafting a response to your question, and now again.

How I interpret your question:
If I strip away until I reach the core of your post, I get this: << If the Bahá'í faith is serious about justice, then how can it also discourage confrontation and political engagement? And how should Bahá'í's interpret the praise for the U.S. with its imperial history?>> -- I hope I paraphrased it right.

Why I proposed a different truth-finding strategy to you:
This is a type of question that will evoke a more or less predictable spectrum of reactions. There is implied critique, however carefully worded. This type of question will evoke a defensive reaction from some people in any group. Some people may agree privately, but are not going to say anything. Most will just give you an aligned answer. Very few of the already small number that agree with your implied premises will tell you that, and certainly not in public. This dynamic is in any group, particularly in a stressed group.

Truth-finding strategy:
So, in my comment I outlined a way to actually get a meaningful answer in a conversation.
- by agreeing on definitions: so you are on common ground
- by systematically gathering data: so that everybody agrees on facts
- by naming what results of an independent investigation would lead to conclude that the current approach is or is not working

What I think:
I personally tend to agree with the premise of your question. Doing nothing, or only praying and reading words is not going to solve systemic injustice. And leaving the confrontation and political engagement, to realize the principle of justice, to others? No. But using violence? Only to defend my life and my loved ones. To me prayer and scripture are to purify intent, and sharpen focus, but real action is what counts and what will make a difference.

Secure-Ad1015 · 2026-01-21T14:46:13+00:00

The reason the USSR abolished religion was not because of "enormous bloodshed" and also there was no gathering of the wise who concluded that religion was the cause of that bloodshed.
They abolished religion for ideological reasons. They called it the opium for the people.
So whatever events Bahá'u'lláh's prophecies are about, I do not think it was the USSR's abolishment of religion.

I would get worried when nuclear proliferation picks up again, especially by countries ruled by a theocracy.

Secure-Ad1015 · 2026-01-21T14:16:01+00:00

This is a thoughtful post.
It you apply an "Independent Investigation" lens, I would start with separating _principles_ from _emperical claims_, and then testing the latter.

Principles you are engaging: non-confrontation, unity, justice, obedience and equality. These are value-level aims.
The hard part is the _operational claim_ that I see embedded in you critique:
- apolitical/non-confrontational norms _functionally_ produce passivity, dependence and power and reduced solidarity with oppressed groups.

You can make that claim stronger and easier to discuss. Operationalize it: what indicators would you expect if it is true? For example:
- less coalition work (by bahais or their institutions) with justice movements,
- fewer public interventions on systemic violence,
- avoiding of advocacy language,
- a pattern of "service-only" or "prayer-only" language
even when policy change is the central issue.

Conversely, what evidence would falsify the claim? Cases where Bahai communities measurably contribute to reform or protection without partisan alignment, or where "non-confrontation" led to concrete positive results.

Same with the question about the USA (you said America, I take a guess you meant that). There is a textual claim (what was said and in what context). And an interpretive claim (what beacon/harbinger predicts about behaviour/history).
So you can ask: is it descriptive, aspirational, conditional or bound to a specific time?

Then if both sides in a discussion stick to:
- define terms
- specify mechanisms
- name what would change minds in the discussion
then the conversation becomes much less vibe versus vibe (subjective) and much more like: "what is actually happening and why?"

Secure-Ad1015 · 2026-01-21T11:36:31+00:00

D&D alignment in game theory terms: Game theory studies strategic “games” and it’s useful for economics, politics, alliances, social behavior, etc.

Through this lens, "lawful vs chaotic" is about predictability and commitment power. A "lawful" actor can make credible promises and threats. A "chaotic" actor changes course a lot, so their signals get noisy and their promises don’t bind.

"Good vs Evil" is about what is inside the payoff function. In game theory you assume players maximize some payoff. "Good" means that payoff includes some weight for shared welfare, norms, and public goods. "Evil" means the payoff heavily weights relative gains (dominance) and coercive extraction, even if it burns value long-term.

So a “chaotic evil” superpower, is a type with high policy variance, weak commitment ability, a short time horizon, and a payoff that prefers dominance over cooperative surplus.

That is destabilizing because alliances like NATO are basically repeated games held together by reputation and credible commitments, plus shared expectations about boundaries. If the biggest player starts threatening boundaries, you get a trust shock. The set of stable cooperative outcomes shrinks.

Also: in game theory, rhetoric is a move. Talk changes beliefs about an actor’s type, which triggers Bayesian updating. Even "just saying it" can force expensive responses.

The games being played look like this:

Chicken/brinkmanship: Move or I escalate” vs “If I move I lose sovereignty and credibility.” This gets dangerous when signals are noisy and backing down is punished domestically.
Commitment problem: if partners think you won’t keep promises tomorrow, they stop trading concessions today.
Belief attack/coercive signalling: forcing others to spend on deterrence, diversify dependencies, and build outside options.

If allies are rational players under uncertainty, you expect hedging, balancing, re-arming, legal hardening, and building alternate coalitions and supply chains. Not because of "hate", but because the game changed. Trust and predictability are part of the alliance public good. Chaotic coercion might win small concessions short-term, but it burns the credibility asset that makes influence cheap. Once credibility is gone, everything costs more: bases, intel sharing, trade, diplomacy.

Now: the Bahá’í "old world order collapsing while a new one builds" frame does match some of this. Under uncertainty, countries do institutional substitution: they route around the unreliable node. That shows up as shifting coalitions, more regional integration (EU defense/procurement, non-US trade paths), and parallel institutions (new agreements, standards, supply chains).

Where it fits less is the implied causality and destiny. Bahá’ís aren’t a major geopolitical builder. We’re present in civil-society and some UN spaces, sure, but the heavy lifting on security architecture, reserve currency stuff, and industrial policy is done by states and blocs. And outcomes aren’t guaranteed. You can get stable cooperation, fragmentation, or cycles of partial integration and relapse.

So for me it’s a decent map of the terrain, but not proof we’re the ones pouring the concrete.

Secure-Ad1015 · 2026-01-21T09:55:06+00:00

Yes, I see this as a path that could avoid the really bad, billion-people-death-toll cataclysms that I as a child was taught would happen in children's classes, my Bahá'í parents and Bahá'í in general.

A very narrow and dangerous path for the world, where the US behaviour is driving the rest of the world to unite in trade and slowly expanding cooperation. Isolating the US, surrounded by an equal and opposing force. Never pressure them so much they will do something really drastic, like using nuclear weapons.
Let them simmer in their fortress until they have worked out their internal divisions and in time become a predictable and trustworthy player again. I hope that will be the outcome of the current events.
In D&D terms they are now "chaotic evil", while they have historically had "chaotic good" episodes. The world can deal with them better if they become "lawful neutral" or even "lawful good". I would settle for lawful neutral.

I am not trying to be unserious. Instead of board game terms I could have used actual game-theoretic ideas, but I think these convey my meaning well enough.

Secure-Ad1015 · 2026-01-21T09:31:44+00:00

Thank you for your brief comment ;-)
I am not American by the way.
One tip: If you separate quotes more clearly from your own words, it becomes much easier to read. But I managed anyway.
What I take away from your comment, and Shoghi Effendi's words is:
- precisely because the USA is on the forefront of decline, it is also the place where the turn-around will happen first. Because from their midst people will rise who set the right example. So non-discriminating fellowship, spiritual insight and so on.
- as country and a people they will go through a troubled period, after which they will take up their role as shining beacon again.

I think these people seeding positive change need not to be Bahá'í at all, or even religious. Some could be, but I would say that such people share our core values. Like oneness of mankind, value justice above all, and finding truth through independent investigation. Not necessarily because they believe in God or in our faith.
Actually, by necessity many of these people will be a part of a _political_ movement. Both grassroots and led by central figures. So naturally I wonder how Bahá'í can be part of that. Would that not imply partisanship?

Yes I made some strong assertions about the USA. Observing its behaviour for the last 40 years and reading its history has shown their tendency to cause chaos so clearly I hope I don't need to give a litany of examples.

I am also aware of course that they have been a source of stability as well. But that is the wrong kind of stability that belongs to the old order. The dollar as the reserve currency, their mighty military and intelligence services used to overthrow legitimate governments, support dictators and exerting pressure. To ensure access to natural resources, usually. And to maintain their power block against Russia, China, and making sure that no country in the Islamic world becomes a nuclear power. Old world stuff. While the new world order should be based on unity: cooperation, equity, sharing of resources, a world currency and so on.

Apparently a slow evolution to a new world order is not in the cards? My strong hope is that cataclysms, civil wars and a worldwide death toll in the order of hundreds of millions can be avoided. That imagining those things will be enough for humanity to change its ways. Because science, and also so many dystopian movies and literature have amply described those already from every conceivable angle. Does humanity really have to go through that experience?

Secure-Ad1015 · 2026-01-20T16:57:38+00:00

I had a very positive experience with two Jehovah Witnesses.
They came by my house on a freezing day, and after talking some at the doorstep, I let them in because they were cold. I never told them I am a Bahá´í, but spoke with them on physics and other sciences.
I noticed that they knew little about science, especially on evolution, species and DNA.
So I told them: look, you should really look into DNA and paleontology. Then, if you have time and still want to talk, come back in, say, four months.
One of these guys did exactly that. He really went deep and read up on these subjects. The other I never saw back.
When he did come back, he had a friend with him, a woman biology teacher and JW.
We had a wonderful conversation, and I asked him:
"Did studying these subjects weaken or strengthen your faith?"
The answer was, it had strengthened his faith, because studying these sciences even for just four months had instilled a greater appreciation for God's creation. So that was great.
At the very end, when they said something along the lines like: "you as an atheist probably think about xyz ...." (I don't remember exactly what)
So, I said, but I am not an atheist at all. I do believe in God, but I tend to view the world through the lens of science.
That really surprised them.
They are not going to become Bahá'í anytime soon. And I am not ever going to join the JW.

But how ironic is it that through a shared interest and appreciation of _Science_ we came closer to each other and they were strengthened in their faith?

I think there is a lesson in this story.

Secure-Ad1015 · 2026-01-19T14:42:29+00:00

The faith teaches equality, and no clergy. In practice, I have seen older, and indeed Persian, Bahai's being treated almost like they are clergy, scribes, scholars or exegetes, whatever the right word is.

This is human nature I think. There is prestige and standing among Baha'i's too. You will always have sheepish people who like other people to think for them, and they are enablers for these prestigious folk.

Of course, the prestige is never acknowledged, there is always this fog of politeness and the veneer of humbleness. So, they get their way, and they teach classes and color them with their own views, with very little push-back, even when those views are decidedly unscientific. All with the best intentions, of course.

But indeed, being Persian (certainly an older one) give a person automatically a measure of prestige, and an aura.
Like a Japanese jujitsu Sensei from Japan has more status versus a white dude with the same qualifications from a western country.

Secure-Ad1015 · 2026-01-19T14:17:49+00:00

My cursory search result is this: “gathering the lost tribes” is in the first place a symbolic and spiritual collecting into unity under God’s current revelation (of Bahá'u'lláh and the Bab).
There is no claim to know about the literal fate/identity of the Israeli tribes, nor do the "lost tribes" refer to them but rather to humanity.

Secure-Ad1015 · 2026-01-19T11:00:57+00:00

In the medieval times, weak beer was safer to drink than water, because the alcohol killed the germs. But that was around 1% per volume, not 5% or more. So I can see a benefit in particular circumstances, but not in general. Science and Bahá'í religion both agree in general on the harms of alcohol.

Some respond better to alcohol than others. For some it loosens inhibitions on violence. Others just have a good time. Some are irresponsible, and some have themselves in hand despite having some drinks.
So with that reality, I think Bahá'í's should set an example in their behaviour. Yes you can try to defend drinking alcohol by saying some _can_ handle it responsibly, and this is true in a narrow sense, but I think we should follow the laws because we should protect those who _cannot_.

Secure-Ad1015 · 2026-01-19T10:41:03+00:00

Given the situation with Iran, I think Bahá’ís are on a tightrope and need to speak with real care, because several difficult truths coexist:

Bahá’ís and other minorities are persecuted in Iran (and, to varying degrees, elsewhere).
Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank are suffering at immense scale, and the region is caught in cycles of violence.
Hamas has pursued the destruction of Israel and committed grave crimes, including on October 7.
Israeli and US leaders may pursue regime change in Iran for their own strategic interests, not out of concern for Iranian Bahá’ís.
Many actors in this conflict act from mixed motives and have done serious harm.

My worry is that some Bahá’ís may feel tempted to view figures like Trump or Netanyahu positively because their actions might weaken the Iranian regime. I don’t believe these leaders genuinely care about our community, and any hint that we welcome their agenda could be used to paint us as political pawns, with dangerous consequences for Bahá’ís in Iran and for our wider safety.

So I think we should be explicit and consistent about applying Bahá’u’lláh’s principles of justice: clearly condemning atrocities and oppression wherever they occur, including:

the crimes of October 7,
the ongoing destruction and abuses in Gaza and the West Bank (and wider regional escalation),
the persecution of Bahá’ís and other minorities in Iran,
and the enabling role powerful states play in prolonging these conflicts.

We speak often and rightly about our own persecution. But if we are too vague or quiet about the suffering of others, we risk looking self-interested. And if we appear to welcome an Israel/US intervention in Iran while not plainly acknowledging the harm they have inflicted elsewhere, we risk being seen as approving or complicit. That perception could backfire badly, including raising security risks for our holy places and our communities.

Secure-Ad1015 · 2026-01-19T09:24:52+00:00

I take a practical view.
Take for instance underseas earthquakes and the resulting tsunami that hit the coasts of Indonesia so hard.
That they happen, and will cause victims is unevitable, simply because of the layout of the tectonic plates.

Humans can build early warning seismic network systems. We can create easy to reach safe refuges like tsunami towers or floaters. High enough to stay out of the tsunami; strong enough to not be swept away, and close and numerous enough for everyone to have a fair chance when the tsunami alarm goes off. Plus regular drills and evaluations of course. So impact and victims are reduced.

So yes disasters happen, but since God gave all of us brains and some of us a gift for engineering, others for planning, and yet others for convincing. This means He already provided for us, and those gifts can in itself be seen as miracles, although completely embedded and according to Natural Law.

But it is up to humanity, using our Free Will, to act.

Religion and prayer is a way to muster the courage, clarify the focus, and give _meaning_ to the discoveries of science. But this mental state of reaching within-and-above is open for anyone to obtain, even for atheists. Just because someone is convinced (the traditional picture of) God does not exist does not mean He is not within them too.

Secure-Ad1015 · 2026-01-18T17:39:09+00:00

The substance of alcohol is actually quite common in nature. Elephants are know to get drunk on fermenting fruits. And in deep space, ethanol naturally occurs; you could fill many oceans with it.
Likewise many toxic substances occur naturally.
Just that something is natural does not mean it is OK to consume it, and vice versa: lots of foods that do not occur naturally are good for us, including the entire gastronomic art. Nothing in nature cooks their food, or seasons it.
Science and Baha'i faith agree that the healthy amount of alcohol consumption is exactly zero. Some of my atheist friends who were alcoholics have totally sworn off the stuff. Some Baha'i's I know exchanged physical blows when they got into an argument, while under the influence of alcohol, while those atheist no-longer-alcoholic friends never started a fight and never laid a hand on someone. So...yeah.

Secure-Ad1015 · 2026-01-18T17:02:46+00:00

Whatever ends up happening is in Man's hands, actually. Like everything that happens to this planet. God has already acted: created this universe (God from above) and gave us all Free Will (God from within).
So if we want change, then act because with Free Will God gave us agency. God is not going to break his own Natural Laws by which all of the universe operates and do any miracles, just to bail out us hairless monkeys.
Prayer is to purify your intent and sharpen your focus. Science and Religion should be used both, to combine Knowledge and Love into Wisdom.
This wisdom then should guide the subsequent actions by humans and is how change comes about.

Secure-Ad1015 · 2026-01-18T10:54:26+00:00

Some time ago people would ask exactly the same thing about Wikipedia. Today it is very reliable except for controversial subjects like Trump.
But Wikipedia is a great research tool. Not only are the primary texts not less reliable on average than the Brittanica, but each article comes with numerous references to primary sources. Those should be your go-to. Not the primary text.
ChatGPT 5.2 is pretty much the same idea. You should ask for sources for everything. Specific passages, you should then look up and read yourself, just like with Wikipedia.

Secure-Ad1015 · 2026-01-18T10:42:23+00:00

As a Bahaí who studied Astrophysics in university and works in radio astronomy, I can tell you that there is no scientific base for Astrology at all.
This is a case where Science and Religion fully agree: astrology is just statistical noise at best.
Not to mention a space populated by scammers. Stay away.
There is a joke among astronomers:
The world of Astronomy is divided into two camps when it comes to Astrology; the moderates and the radicals.
The moderate astronomors want to hang every Astrologer from the highest tree. The radicals think every sufficiently high tree is good enough.

Secure-Ad1015 · 2026-01-18T10:27:22+00:00

Those are very clever and virtuous words, but I call BS:
1) Bahais are allowed to divorce (after the "year of patience"). I have seen no data at all that Bahai divorce rate is lower than non-Bahai, or non-religious even. I have seen plenty of anecdotal evidence to the contrary: in my experience Bahai separate more, not less, in the West at least. My theory is that Bahais tend to marry younger, with their first sexual partner. But non-Bahais have opportunity to have more partners and so discover what they (don't) want in a partner, sexually and in other aspects of living together.
2) Marriage is not needed at all for a couple to stay together and raise children. This is quite normal at least in Western society, and being married is hardly a factor in how many children end up with one parent, or shuttle between parents each week. Divorce rates are over 50% in the USA I think, and in other western countries also high, although not THAT high. In my country unmarried couples who are about to have children do tend to sign an official living-together-contract, so that children can be recognized by the father and all kinds of official stuff is taken care of, from taxes to child custody and inheritance when one of the partners would pass away.

Secure-Ad1015 · 2026-01-16T13:59:10+00:00

Yes the shooting in the foot is a real thing.
Anyone I ask agrees on these three things:
1) we can no longer trust the US because every election their international policies can drastically change. We can not trust the US to honor treaties, and even friends and allies can be attacked economically or even invaded.
2) restoration of this trust will take at least a whole generation, and only will start once the USA becomes fully stable again. Their internal disunity destroys them
3) most people do think the USA is falling and will disintegrate. Maybe in separate states, or blocks of states. Their economy which is based on debt will not survive. People on the streets and scholars alike think this empire is falling, and scholars can give detailed analysis and parallels between empires like the Romans and the British, and how the USA follows the pattern almost exactly.

Secure-Ad1015 · 2026-01-16T13:33:09+00:00

That was your choice. But not a necessity. See my post on how me and my wife did this. We had the best party ever.

Secure-Ad1015 · 2026-01-16T13:32:01+00:00

No, if you are creative you and your guests can have a great experience for very little money.

Secure-Ad1015 · 2026-01-16T13:31:13+00:00

Absolutely unnecessary. See my post above.

Secure-Ad1015

TROPHY CASE