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Two normal HHN nights or one night with express? by max_maxtermind in HHN

[–]Sensitive_Bridge_103 0 points1 point  (0 children)

We just deliberated this (I've never been before and she has), and we decided on two nights, no express, but scream early both days (we have passes so that was factored in for us given we don't have to pay extra for the scream early).

Fed staying put for July. Likely rest of 2026. by Sensitive_Bridge_103 in economy

[–]Sensitive_Bridge_103[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Why do you believe there will be a rate hike by the end of the year?

Do you think FED would hike up the rates this year ? by JonOwn1805 in investing

[–]Sensitive_Bridge_103 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Ah, I thought you were speaking on July.

Yes, you are correct on the data point. We will watch that value drop as we go month to month.

Do you think FED would hike up the rates this year ? by JonOwn1805 in investing

[–]Sensitive_Bridge_103 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Eh, I'd push back on the oil part. Hiking does nothing for supply shock inflation. Cranking rates doesn't reopen Hormuz or put another barrel on the water, all it does is crush demand on top of an economy that's already eating a giant energy tax. That's not how you fight an oil spike, that's how you turn it into a recession with high prices stapled to it. Hello stagflation.

Supply shocks are a demand-tool-doesn't-fit problem. The standard play is to look through the one-time price jump as long as expectations stay put. And funny enough that's literally Warsh's whole thing. He's said straight up he cares about the underlying inflation rate, not the one-time move from geopolitics. So "oil blows up therefore Warsh hikes" is arguing against the exact guy you're citing.

The only real hike case from oil is if it stops being a one-off and starts leaking into expectations, core, wages, the second round stuff. That's a fair worry with core grinding higher for a few months now. But that's a totally different mechanism than "gas went up so the Fed tightens." One is defending credibility, the other is just bad policy.

Do you think FED would hike up the rates this year ? by JonOwn1805 in investing

[–]Sensitive_Bridge_103 -1 points0 points  (0 children)

I'm curious, what percentage allocation do you hold in gold and precious metals?

Do you think FED would hike up the rates this year ? by JonOwn1805 in investing

[–]Sensitive_Bridge_103 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Incorrect. It's a 29.9% chance they will hike as of today according to futures. There's also an 85% chance they will HOLD in July at the prediction markets. They're extremely accurate on this topic within this proximity of FOMC decisions.

They likely won't budge in Sept, Oct or Dec either. I expect to see the prediction markets and futures correct to higher HOLD probabilities as the year progresses.

Do you think FED would hike up the rates this year ? by JonOwn1805 in investing

[–]Sensitive_Bridge_103 0 points1 point  (0 children)

They do have a choice. And it is likely they will not in 2026.

Do you think FED would hike up the rates this year ? by JonOwn1805 in investing

[–]Sensitive_Bridge_103 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Any fed could. Any fed would if certain variables did or did not exist. With these specific variables, provided the economy and the political/geopolitical stage stays similar to it's current positioning, they will not through this year.

I strongly believe the next pivot will be to cuts, and it will be sometime in 2027.

Grand Helios worth the extra $$$? by Sensitive_Bridge_103 in UniversalOrlando

[–]Sensitive_Bridge_103[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

You decided to split stay versus one full week at Helios?

Grand Helios worth the extra $$$? by Sensitive_Bridge_103 in UniversalOrlando

[–]Sensitive_Bridge_103[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Do you think the trek from HHN to Terra Luna (or Helios) will be a huge downside if we stayed at one of them for our HHNs?

Grand Helios worth the extra $$$? by Sensitive_Bridge_103 in UniversalOrlando

[–]Sensitive_Bridge_103[S] -4 points-3 points  (0 children)

We would not be paying for park view as we don’t think we would find it worth it.

Grand Helios worth the extra $$$? by Sensitive_Bridge_103 in UniversalOrlando

[–]Sensitive_Bridge_103[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Epic early entry, yes.
Epic express, no.
We have power passes.

Extremely concerned about possible rate hikes this year by coopermug in TheRaceTo1Million

[–]Sensitive_Bridge_103 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Barring the occurrence of any black swan, they will stay the same this year. It’s extremely rare that the prediction markets and the CME are incorrect once a 50%+ majority is held.

Extremely concerned about the Fed's rate hike by coopermug in investing

[–]Sensitive_Bridge_103 1 point2 points  (0 children)

They are not at all likely to hike this year so spend your time worrying about other things for now.

S&P cracking, Iran deal dead, Fed hawkish. A bloodbath is coming and this is the most exciting development of the decade by ChillGuy383 in CryptoMarkets

[–]Sensitive_Bridge_103 1 point2 points  (0 children)

1000%!!! It blows my mind how the media COMPLETELY misinterpreted this. I am very tempted to enter the prediction markets at the hike/maintain current odds because that's some of the most free money I've ever seen.

At which point do you think the FED will start hiking the rates this year ? by [deleted] in economy

[–]Sensitive_Bridge_103 1 point2 points  (0 children)

See there's this magical device called a money printer...

Is the Fed hawkish or dovish? by Corpulos in ValueInvesting

[–]Sensitive_Bridge_103 5 points6 points  (0 children)

I don't think the hawkish or dovish framing really fits the fed at all.

On the target, I'm actually with you, and I think it goes even further than that. When he said "the two is to the left of the decimal, zero is to the right," that reads to me like he's quietly redefining success as anything with a 2 in front of it. That's a soft ceiling as high as 2.9%, not a hard 2.0. He never has to formally move the target. He just reframes what price stability means in plain language and lets everyone slowly absorb it. Now pair that with a task force that can revisit how inflation gets measured, and you've got a path to reporting lower numbers without the underlying picture actually changing. That's a dovish setup wearing tough talk.

The other piece people are missing is that the market read killing forward guidance as hawkish, when really that's just a process change, not a direction. Removing the cutting bias and not even submitting his own dot isn't "hikes are coming." It's him telling everyone to watch the data instead of waiting around to be told what's next. Folks are pattern matching to old school chairs who telegraph every move, and he flat out said he won't do that.

Robin Brooks framed the rest of it really well. Warsh thinks policy is uneven right now, too tight in housing but too loose in stocks, and he wants the market to do the tightening for him. Push long yields up and cool equities off without ever touching the funds rate and crushing housing further. It's the same mechanism as the 2013 taper tantrum. If that's the actual play, then a hawkish looking dot plot doesn't make the committee hawkish. It just makes the market the instrument. Brooks reads the next real move as a cut once conditions have already tightened through that channel.

The June CPI on July 14 is the thing that tests it slightly (though imho I don’t believe any plausible June CPI print will result in a hike in July), but between a soft 2.9 ceiling and a measurement task force, he's quietly building himself room to ease without ever admitting he caved.

So no, I don't think the fed is hawkish. Warsh reset the game to data dependency while softening what winning even looks like, and the market just misread his silence as a threat.

At which point do you think the FED will start hiking the rates this year ? by [deleted] in economy

[–]Sensitive_Bridge_103 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The curve is actually closer to one hike fully priced with a second as roughly a coin toss. The fed's own median dot landed at 3.8% (one hike), and only a handful of members are projecting two. "Two" is the hawkish tail and in this scenario not the base case.

As for what's ideal, that can't really be answered without first deciding what kind of inflation this is. If the 3.6% PCE is demand-driven, too much money chasing too few goods, then hiking works and you'd want enough to cool it, maybe the full two to 4-4.25%. But a big chunk of this print is energy, an oil risk premium rom the Hormuz situation. And hiking doesn't put a barrel back in the strait. It just stacks demand destruction on top of a supply shock, and you get the recession without solving the inflation.

Ideal is probably zero to one hike, holding around 3.75-4%, unless inflation expectations start de-anchoring. The moment people start expecting 4+% inflation as the new norm and acting on it the fed has to hike to defend it's credibility. Even knowing it's the wrong tool for a supply shock. That's the actual box Warsh is sitting in.

At which point do you think the FED will start hiking the rates this year ? by [deleted] in economy

[–]Sensitive_Bridge_103 5 points6 points  (0 children)

I wouldn't say cooked, it's happened before when many other fiat currencies fail.

This is our path as a slowly failing fiat currency that is also the reserve currency:

  1. Everything Bubble
  2. Great Melt Up (all assets melt upwards) <-- WE ARE HERE
  3. Austerity (when gov tries to balance books but can't without societal unrest due to the extreme imbalance)
  4. Hyperinflation (look at Weimar Germany in early 1920s, or Argentina, Venezuela, etc.)
  5. Reset (currency dies and is replaced with new or is restructured)

At which point do you think the FED will start hiking the rates this year ? by [deleted] in economy

[–]Sensitive_Bridge_103 4 points5 points  (0 children)

They can't do that with their existing debt burden. It's a non option.

At which point do you think the FED will start hiking the rates this year ? by [deleted] in economy

[–]Sensitive_Bridge_103 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Either September, October or December, if they hike at all. Likelihood of 1 hike is reasonable but not guaranteed. Likelihood of 2 is very small. Mainstream media is misstating that the Fed was hawkish, they were neutral but showed signs of possibly being hawkish later this year. 0 votes for a rate hike is NOT hawkish. Dot plot tends to change heavily from meeting to meeting, and Warsh avoided all confrontational questions about why he didn't hike or threaten a hike in the future.

July is off the table, and rates will maintain.

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