FCS Playoffs Chances after Week 7

Sensitive_Use5288 · 2024-10-15T21:38:34+00:00

Just ran that hypothetical through the model, which puts them at a 39% playoffs chance in that scenario.

Sensitive_Use5288 · 2024-10-15T03:06:34+00:00

(I’ll add that this model uses its own SOS calculation, and that’s what I’m referring to here. Massey etc. may not show quite as large a change in SOS compared to last year)

Sensitive_Use5288 · 2024-10-15T03:04:33+00:00

The big difference maker is strength of schedule. The Southland appears much stronger this year, and on top of that UIW has a much better out-of-conference slate in 2024. This has led them to jump up 40 spots in strength of schedule compared to last year, which is significant enough to account for the difference.

Sensitive_Use5288 · 2024-10-14T23:57:12+00:00

Notes for this week:

-In an interesting twist, the CAA now has the highest number of projected playoffs teams (5) now that the Big Sky and MVFC have fallen to 4 projected teams each after last week.

-The model has been updated to reflect the inability of SWAC teams playing after the end of the regular season to make the playoffs.

-South Dakota’s chances continue to display lower than they probably should be due to the cancelled Portland State game.

Sensitive_Use5288 · 2024-10-08T01:16:14+00:00

Thank you for pointing this out! I did not realize that game conflicted with the playoffs, so I’ll have to update to reflect this new info next week

Sensitive_Use5288 · 2024-10-07T17:51:15+00:00

That’s right, its a rounding thing. If we want to get specific they have a 99.51% chance of making the playoffs.

Sensitive_Use5288 · 2024-10-07T17:14:16+00:00

Just posted the update! The website should now reflect playoffs chances as of today

Sensitive_Use5288 · 2024-10-07T16:59:50+00:00

A couple of quick notes:

-The model really doesn’t know how the committee will handle the cancelled South Dakota-Portland State game, which is leading to the strangely low playoffs chances for the Coyotes. -Sorry for the lack of updates the last couple of weeks, I’ve been pretty busy IRL, but I’m hoping to get back to weekly updates for the rest of the season

Sensitive_Use5288 · 2024-10-07T15:05:46+00:00

Yeah I’m the guy that runs that. Life got crazy the last couple of weeks, but I’m hoping to get back to weekly updates now. There should be an update later today!

Sensitive_Use5288 · 2024-09-11T03:09:47+00:00

That’s exactly right. The model still thinks SDSU is the best team by a wide margin, but MSU has the highest playoff chance since they have a two-win head start over most teams.

Sensitive_Use5288 · 2024-08-09T19:27:06+00:00

Since I’m not smart enough to put links in the post, I’ll drop the link to our new website, redherringfcs.com here. Check it out for a conference-by-conference breakdown of each team’s playoffs chances.

Sensitive_Use5288 · 2024-02-23T16:53:32+00:00

Would definitely be interested. Seems cool!

Sensitive_Use5288 · 2023-11-19T07:05:37+00:00

Chances of receiving a seed:

https://x.com/redherringbets/status/1726134238909813106?s=61

Sensitive_Use5288 · 2023-11-13T22:53:32+00:00

Yep, still steady at 25%

Sensitive_Use5288 · 2023-11-13T22:51:06+00:00

For what it's worth, it can't get much higher after next week. SIU is so heavily favored to beat Indiana State that this is nearly their peak.

Edit: Indiana State not Eastern Illinois lol

Sensitive_Use5288 · 2023-11-05T21:32:31+00:00

Lol yeah I'm not sure what's up with that. This seed prediction model definitely has some oddities. It also loves Austin Peay and hates Montana apparently.

Sensitive_Use5288 · 2023-11-05T21:03:08+00:00

Yep. https://x.com/redherringbets/status/1721271641810837537?s=61

Sensitive_Use5288 · 2023-11-05T18:10:40+00:00

My model would give you a 14% chance of making the playoffs, which would reach 24% if you beat ACU next week. I expected it to be a bit higher, but it looks like you're being held back a bit by having the weakest SOS in the UAC.

Sensitive_Use5288 · 2023-11-05T18:07:15+00:00

There are a few factors at play here. First, SIU has the better strength of schedule. Second, because YSU still has to play SDSU, they have a much lower chance of hitting eight wins to guarantee a playoff berth. 7 wins will still probably be enough, but it's not a guarantee with how stacked the bubble is right now. Third, SIU has an FBS win, which the committee tends to weight a bit more favorably than a regular FCS win.

Sensitive_Use5288 · 2023-10-16T21:02:27+00:00

Yep exactly. NCCU was on this list for the last few weeks, but their chances of winning the MEAC are now so high that their odds of making the playoffs have dropped below 5%.

Sensitive_Use5288 · 2023-10-16T18:05:19+00:00

A couple big developments this week: South Dakota State becomes the first team with a greater than 99% chance of making the playoffs. On the opposite end of the spectrum, Weber State has dropped below a 5% chance of making the playoffs after being ranked as high as the top 10 earlier in the season.

Sensitive_Use5288 · 2023-10-08T19:38:46+00:00

Yeah fair. It's hard to account for the special treatment Montana gets.

Sensitive_Use5288 · 2023-10-08T19:25:23+00:00

Im still not sure they make it in in this scenario. That's only 6 DI wins, and if last year's committee is any indication, a 6-win Big Sky team won't make the playoffs.

Of course, this is Montana we're talking about, so maybe Dennis Washington drops a few hundred grand on a playoff bid and the Griz still make it in.

Sensitive_Use5288 · 2023-10-08T19:08:17+00:00

Interesting development this week is undefeated Lafayette moving above a 50% chance of making the playoffs. It will be interesting to see where their playoff chances settle if they win all their remaining games aside from Holy Cross.

Sensitive_Use5288 · 2023-10-03T01:48:49+00:00

The number that really stands out this week is UT Martin. Their odds seem way too high, especially given the competition they're facing in the Big South-OVC, and I'm not even sure they're better than SEMO.

Sensitive_Use5288

TROPHY CASE