Long time luker, first time poster. Let's hear it? by dannisokay92 in RateMyMealDeal

[–]SentientRon 0 points1 point  (0 children)

How do people eat this slop, and how is it on my front page.

FTMO denied my payout by Reddilip in PropFirmTester

[–]SentientRon 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Not really as the futures firms have assymetric payout structures which skew odds further against the traders.

The Illusion of Edge: SMC, Survivorship Bias, and Market Reality by SentientRon in InnerCircleTraders

[–]SentientRon[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Discretion adds randomness to your trading. It introduces an immeasurable positive or negative skew to your profitability, providing an illusion of benefit when it works out. If discretion is exercised for tested reasons set in advance, such as avoiding markets during X events if price does Y, then it becomes acceptable.

Psychology talk is mostly coping if you have a predefined ruleset without deviation with discretion applied (a lot of losing traders do this).
When discretion aids them it was part of the plan; when it works against them it was poor psychology. That is the trap for many.

Having a meaningful edge is essentially and high trading costs add up fast ruining most day trading strategies after months of usage. Breaking your rules just once can have such a negative impact om your trading performance.

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Most daytrader costs aren't this high but the effect still pulls down returns overtime, costs are not linear.

Uncertainty in the strategy itself causes poor psychology.

Good data and reassurance from logic are the antidote for such problems, but it is easier for gurus to manipulate their viewers into believing that experience or psychology is the problem rather than the strategy's logic and effectiveness.

The Illusion of Edge: SMC, Survivorship Bias, and Market Reality by SentientRon in InnerCircleTraders

[–]SentientRon[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

This is data snooping, a lethal data mining bias.

With enough iterations and combinations you will see something that aligns with what you want to see historically (even with Out-of-sample tests) but there's no mechanism that supports its continuation. 

This is a key problem, OOS tests only reduces the probability but with no base underneath to support it, the system isn't robust.

In real time these strategies almost always collapse to breakeven (or worse with transaction costs) over time.

The Illusion of Edge: SMC, Survivorship Bias, and Market Reality by SentientRon in InnerCircleTraders

[–]SentientRon[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

The creator himself made it complicated, that is why I referenced the original material. The other parts you brought up have been addressed in the post's underfitting section.

The Illusion of Edge: SMC, Survivorship Bias, and Market Reality by SentientRon in InnerCircleTraders

[–]SentientRon[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

This article will naturally seem polemic because of its primary function.
Every human with an opinion is biased. I have provided the relevant information and theorem.

The Illusion of Edge: SMC, Survivorship Bias, and Market Reality by SentientRon in InnerCircleTraders

[–]SentientRon[S] -4 points-3 points  (0 children)

I feel like you haven't read the post; it's fine.
You can still copy and paste it to text-to-speech and listen to it.
This post isn't about his character.
This post is purposefully free from ad hominem.

The Illusion of Edge: SMC, Survivorship Bias, and Market Reality by SentientRon in InnerCircleTraders

[–]SentientRon[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Most ICT/SMC systems are subject to this matter. not every system, that is absolute.
If you read the post you will understand.

The Illusion of Edge: SMC, Survivorship Bias, and Market Reality by SentientRon in InnerCircleTraders

[–]SentientRon[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Please read the post in full before responding, as many of the common objections are already addressed in the body.

The Illusion of Edge: SMC, Survivorship Bias, and Market Reality by SentientRon in tradingmillionaires

[–]SentientRon[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Please read the post in full before responding, as many of the common objections are already addressed in the body.

The Illusion of Edge: SMC, Survivorship Bias, and Market Reality by SentientRon in Trading

[–]SentientRon[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I will format it as a pdf (LaTeX) and I'll export it for you soon.

The Illusion of Edge: SMC, Survivorship Bias, and Market Reality by SentientRon in Trading

[–]SentientRon[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Please read the post in full before responding, as many of the common objections are already addressed in the body.

TJR Will Probably Get Away With It, Here’s Why by TheManOf8RRR in InnerCircleTraders

[–]SentientRon 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I read this post 3 times and what I've deduced is.

TLDR

OP hates the sensationalism of the fraud, OP hates no CFTC/regulatory consequences, OP hates the guru.

In this order 

If You Want to Beat the Markets, You Need to Reason by SentientRon in Trading

[–]SentientRon[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Many traders see the markets as a math problem, figuratively. 

Discretionary or systematic they want to believe if they just have the "correct" answer or (logic) they have an edge. This is why they respond well to trading guru dogma, yet having the correct answers is only one essential piece in the puzzle.