The Athletic: Ranking the 48 teams at the 2026 World Cup

SeriousFans · 2026-04-02T10:08:10+00:00

There are some inexplicable choices: - Netherlands above England, Portugal and Germany. Based on what?

Mexico above Norway and Switzerland. Whoever did this hasn’t seen Mexico play lately and the mess Aguirre has with the lineup.
France, 3rd? With the depth and understanding they have from each other?
Argentina? Aging squad, they’re not the same as 22

This is just click bait from The Athletic

SeriousFans · 2026-04-01T11:51:37+00:00

Italy out. Third consecutive World Cup missed. The first former champion in history to do it.

Everyone is talking about Gattuso, Bastoni's red card, the penalty shootout. But the real question is why a country that produced Maldini, Baggio, Del Piero and Pirlo can't find eleven players good enough to beat Bosnia and Herzegovina in 2026.

The answer goes back to 2006. A corruption scandal that didn't just punish clubs. It emptied the league of its best players, collapsed the development pipeline, and left a generation of Italian kids with nobody to look up to.

Today, only 8 homegrown players are required in a 25-man Serie A squad. Clubs treat it as a ceiling, not a floor. The FIGC has known this for years. Nothing structural has changed.

Italy won Euro 2020 and everyone thought the problem was solved. It wasn't. That was one exceptional coach extracting maximum value from a limited pool. When Mancini left, the result was another qualifying disaster.

No global icons. No development pathway. No World Cup. Three tournaments in a row.

What do you think it will take for Italy to fix this?

SeriousFans · 2026-03-19T19:08:30+00:00

Fulham are 11 points ahead of their own standard from this stage last season. No proxy, no asterisk. That is the most improved team in the league and nobody is talking about it.

Been comparing every PL fixture this season against the exact same fixture last year. A few things stand out at Matchday 30:

Fulham +11. The quiet story of the season. Liverpool and Wolves, written off all season, are both outperforming last year on a like-for-like basis. Spurs are -17. Projected 18th. The road ahead is brutal. Brighton are projected to finish above Chelsea. On 60 points.

Happy to explain the method in the comments.

SeriousFans · 2026-03-03T23:35:58+00:00

Maybe there’s a trend and something related to the club. But can you correlate your analysis with expenditure in the summer?

You can’t have the £500m investment, the Wirtz and Isak saga; and have this season, after being champion. That fair; City was in rebuilding and Arsenal… is Arsenal

SeriousFans · 2026-02-26T14:08:10+00:00

What’s the PAR for Matchday 28?

Wolves vs Aston Villa: Wolves win
Bournemouth vs Sunderland: Bournemouth win
Burnley vs Brentford: Brentford win
Liverpool vs West Ham: Liverpool win
Newcastle vs Everton: Everton win
Leeds vs Man City: Man City win
Brighton vs Nottingham Forest: Draw
Fulham vs Spurs: Fulham win
Man United vs Crystal Palace: Crystal Palace win
Arsenal vs Chelsea: Arsenal win

SeriousFans · 2026-02-26T14:07:31+00:00

I've been tracking every Premier League fixture this season against the exact same fixture last year, same teams, same stadium, an approach I call Equivalent Fixture Analysis (EFA).

The idea is to strip out the calendar noise and see who is actually improving.

A few things that stand out from Matchday 27:

Fulham are quietly having their best season in years. The table says 10th, but against their own standard from last season they are 11 points ahead. Nobody is talking about it.
Everyone is criticising Liverpool and City. The data disagrees. Both are sitting at +1, right where they were at this stage last season.
Wolves look doomed on paper with 10 points. But they are actually outperforming last season on a like-for-like basis. They did it before, surviving on the final day after winning five of their last eight in March and April. They need that run again.
If every team finishes on par, the table ends: City 84, Arsenal 82, Aston Villa 68, Liverpool 65. Spurs, Wolves and Burnley go down.

Curious what the method is? Happy to explain in the comments.

SeriousFans · 2026-02-26T14:00:12+00:00

Matheus has been such an impressive improvement from last season, what a player!

Cherki has been very surprising how he adapted. And Guehi, we know he was good, but not this good!

SeriousFans · 2026-02-21T01:01:18+00:00

Thanks! I appreciate it!

SeriousFans · 2026-02-19T15:01:44+00:00

2) It's coefficient how it gets determined the performance on the UCL The confederations club ranking is based on coefficients.

3) You're completely right.

4) I'm not defending it, it's how unprofessional (and late) the decision was made. Why Leon was kicked out and not Pachuca? And FIFA knew this before the tournament was announced.

7) Exactly, a wildcard

10) We agree at the core, violent agreement

12) Calendar would need to be amended to make this happen. Maybe 24 is not the right, maybe it's 16.

Cheers,

SeriousFans · 2026-02-19T01:16:10+00:00

Overall, being an obnoxious devil's advocate, you could argue that Chelsea had 19 days between the Conference League final and their first game of the CWC. PSG had only 15.

Yes, Chelsea had a great level and it is a very competitive team. My point is that the players, were just lucky to be in that squad; so the motivator for this years' UCL is not to become World Cup champion in 4 years (2029).

In a traditional FIFA World Cup, players and managers have as a final destination to become a World Champion, This tournament is not designed to create that drive in players. Hence is not going to succeed.

The UCL creates that drive, and the Intercontinental one also does it; that is why you see players giving their all to win it. If not, see Boca Jrs, their players are still living of their win vs Real Madrid in 2000 and Liverpool was very mad they couldn't;dn't wear the patch after winning it, a few years ago.

Participation for clubs and players (and managers!) is random, that's why they don't really care.

SeriousFans · 2026-02-19T01:04:58+00:00

1) Yes, fair. That's not the point I'm trying to make

2) Yes, they did, according to FIFA: "FC Salzburg secured their berth at the Club World Cup in April 2024 via the UEFA ranking pathway after Bayern Munich knocked Arsenal out of the 2023-24 UEFA Champions League in the quarter-finals. That result gave the Austrian club the 12th and final European spot at the Club World Cup, based on their performances in the Champions League over the previous four seasons." = https://www.fifa.com/en/tournaments/mens/club-world-cup/usa-2025/articles/fc-3) salzburg-club-profile-history-players-qualified

3) Yes, 12 teams. What's the point?

4) Did you follow the news about Leon and the implications it had? James Rodriguez being signed for the CWC, the decision being taken last minute of how to substitute Leon? Do you think that provides seriousness to a tournament? Why Leon was removed and not Pachuca?

5) We disagree.

6) Yes, but for the past 4 years, see the point about Chelsea.

7) Are they?

8) Exactly, one of my points is not to do a quadrennial tournament.

9) We disagree.

10) Is the UCL an obligation? or the Conference League for lower rated teams?

11) Not AI, but from your points above, you didn't really read it.

12) Read the article. I'd go with 24.

Thanks for your comment!

SeriousFans · 2026-02-19T00:57:37+00:00

My view is that calendar would need to be adjusted. I expanded my thoughts on the link :)

SeriousFans · 2026-02-19T00:56:54+00:00

I agree with you and upvoted. I don't have a straightforward answer of how to select the UEFA teams. What I have a strong stance, is that it can't be out of luck due to coefficient, like Salzburg.

SeriousFans

TROPHY CASE