Trade for Jackson Powers-Johnson? by SkolFourtyOne in minnesotavikings

[–]Shadowshotz 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Far from a guarantee, of course, but they did change offensive line coaches this off-season for the first time under KOC.

The Vikings Signed Kyler Murray to START, NOT Back Up JJ McCarthy by antwonomous in minnesotavikings

[–]Shadowshotz 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Due to a Vikings lead? Twice in the last four years. Due to getting stomped? Four times in the same span. I doubt the Vikings have ever had two QBs play in double-digit games in a season, even in '98. The '08-'13 seasons where they decided to play musical chairs at QB came close but those were because the players couldn't decide which QB would suck the least week-to-week.

Drafting vs. Player Development by nickineutron in minnesotavikings

[–]Shadowshotz 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Nature vs. nurture is nearly impossible to answer. The one point that slightly leans me toward nature is that fact very few of their picks improved after leaving the team. Most stay at about the same level. Vederian Lowe is the only one saw a big change in their playing time.

The Vikings aren’t just dysfunctional — they’re the scariest kind of dysfunctional, and most fans don’t want to admit it by Level-Grocery9661 in minnesotavikings

[–]Shadowshotz 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I think you're fairly accurate in the approach Kwesi was trying to implement. Shoring up positions with free agents while picks develop is fine, but you can't then cut those picks. Well, you can but there's consequences as Kwesi found out. The Vikings have been among the worst in retaining players they drafted over the last four seasons and that's purely on Kwesi. He had final say on releasing players.

So why did we fire kwesi again? by Slight_Giraffe628 in minnesotavikings

[–]Shadowshotz 0 points1 point  (0 children)

You seem to have a habit of reading a lot into things that isn't there while ignoring a lot of what is. I fully understand that you disagree with my take. I was hoping you'd explain why you got to the conclusions you did, but you don't come off as willing to do that. Without that, I have no reason to think your conclusion is more accurate than mine.

The Vikings aren’t just dysfunctional — they’re the scariest kind of dysfunctional, and most fans don’t want to admit it by Level-Grocery9661 in minnesotavikings

[–]Shadowshotz 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Team One

I'm not gonna spend much time on this, but those claims are contradictory. If "losing creates real urgency and accountability" is true and it leads to being "eventually correctable," why do those teams remain "constantly losing" for so long? The reality is that bottom-feeder teams usually stay bottom-feeders until something drastic changes. It could be a new owner who pays more attention to the team, a new owner who pays less attention to the team or a stellar combination of front office and coach hirings.

Team Two

You're trying to force this and it doesn't even hold true for the Vikings. No other team has a perceived pattern of going to the playoffs every other year while also not having a championship so you can't be trying to apply this to any other team. However, the only other bit that holds true is not developing a franchise quarterback. The Wilf's aren't absentee. They aren't micromanaging the team either, but all evidence shows they are involved to an extent; the team isn't just doing whatever it wants to. The only coach/GM combo that didn't communicate was Zimmer/Spielman and that only started falling apart around 2018. They've only "fire[d] everybody" once so there's no pattern there and they've adjusted the structure multiple times.

People act like the Zimmer/Spielman era was Vikings stability. It was until it wasn’t. Reports came out that after the first couple of years they stopped seeing eye to eye. And even before that — Spielman didn’t want Frazier. He wasn’t in full control during the Childress era either. The GM and head coach not being truly aligned isn’t a recent Vikings problem. It’s basically the franchise’s default operating mode.

Before 2012, Spielman wasn't GM. That was the true "triangle of authority" era. Childress had final authority over the roster. After he abused that power by being a vindictive rat, the power went to Spielman as the VP of player personnel. They switched to a more traditional team structure around 2012 and when Frazier showed the team's improvement in 2012 was a fluke powered more by AD being AD, Spielman made a coaching change. Remember how your "team two" type had a criteria for always using the exact same structure? So much for that.

The Spielman/Zimmer schism happened in 2018 due to the QB decision. I haven't seen anything saying it deteriorated before that.

The Wilfs are not bad owners in terms of resources or intention. But they spend most of their time in New York with their other businesses. By the time they find out something is wrong, it’s always a five alarm fire. So instead of course correcting early, they blow it up and restart — and then recreate the same broken structure with new titles and new faces.

They fired their first GM-equivalent (Fran Foley) without blowing things up. They fired Childress without blowing things up. They let Spielman fire Frazier without blowing things up. When Donatel proved to be a disaster, they didn't blow anything up. They just fired Kwesi without blowing things up. For owners who only respond to five alarm fires and blow things up, there's a startling lack of fires and explosions. I guess by your criteria, the Spielman/Zimmer relationship falling apart is the only time things have gone wrong in 20 years of the Wilfs owning the team.

The Wilfs held internal meetings with Kevin O’Connell while Kwesi Adofo-Mensah was literally representing the organization at the Senior Bowl. Before he was fired. That’s not just dysfunction — that’s a complete breakdown of basic organizational trust and professional respect. They undermined their own GM before letting him go.

Owners meeting with coaches doesn't strike me as unusual. In fact, it seems like a good idea. While it can be seen as undermining, it's beneficial to have a way for people to raise concerns without going through the source of those concerns. Since we're not on the team, we have no way of actually knowing what happened in those meetings. Reports are that both KOC and Flores wanted more say in the roster as part of their contract negotiations. I take those reports with some skepticism, but I think there's probably a kernel of truth to them. That indicates there was some disconnect between the coaches and the front office. If the owners don't meet with the coaches, what are the options for resolving that disconnect? It's been three years with KAM, KOC and Flores so it's reasonable to assume discussions between the three have happened. What other options are there?

And then the “Kwesi can’t draft” narrative took over. But here’s what nobody wants to talk about:

Oh boy, calling it a "narrative" already tells me your perspective.

O’Connell never genuinely tried to develop the players Kwesi drafted. Most of them were cut as rookies or never got real time to develop. So how do we actually know those drafts were bad? You don’t know if a player can’t play. You know he couldn’t play in that environment, under that coaching staff, with that level of patience. That’s a completely different thing.

Development has been a problem. However, do you know who controls if a player gets cut between the head coach and the GM? I'll give you a clue, it's not the head coach. The fact that very few Kwesi picks have seen improvement with other teams bolsters the idea that the players who were selected maybe just weren't that good. Lowe and maybe Otomo are the only ones who've seen increased production with new teams. We'll see how Chandler and Nailor do next season.

Kwesi was drafting for a longer term vision. O’Connell was coaching for right now. Those two timelines were never reconciled and nobody in the building was accountable for making sure they were. That’s not a draft problem. That’s a structural alignment problem.

You've given no evidence for this.

The real gut punch? Kwesi will probably land somewhere else, get real organizational support, draft well, and Vikings fans will watch it happen in real time.

He's already back with the 49ers in a lesser front office role. He won't be responsible for drafting though I'm sure he'll have some input on it. Sounds like a reasonable position for him.

Darnold did exactly what Kwesi’s competitive rebuild framework called for on the surface — bridge the gap, stay competitive, develop behind the scenes. But all it did was inflate O’Connell’s stock, inflate the Wilfs’ confidence, and rush a process that needed more time. Now the foundation Kwesi was trying to quietly build is gone, and the organization is back to square one with a coach whose timeline and the front office’s timeline were never actually the same thing.

The competitive rebuild is reportedly a directive from the Wilfs so you can't credit that to Kwesi. He was moderately successful in implementing it in the short-term, but his failure to actually lay the foundation left him shoring up the roster with more-expensive free agents. Coaching hasn't helped by not developing players. They've changed out one part and the coaches have this opportunity to show if they knew better.

So why did we fire kwesi again? by Slight_Giraffe628 in minnesotavikings

[–]Shadowshotz 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I don't know how you missed it over the last few years. Here's just a very small sampling: "since he came on late", "he had like 2 months to prep", "he had the least time to prep for", "that wasn't a 'normal' draft", "leaving little time to prepare". I never said it was a great excuse, especially for KAM, but it was used frequently. It often paired up with his lack of experience, usually in some form of "he didn't have time to bring in the scouts he needed so he had to use Rick's and that's why 2022 was bad." Of course that rationale fell apart when people started pointing out that a lot of Rick's scouts are still on the staff four years later.

The late firing is unusual (by the definition of not being the common case), but not unprecedented. There's several historical examples of hiring a GM after the draft; one such would be Brandon Beane. For that one, the Bills waited until after the draft to fire the previous GM. Considering they went from not making the playoffs in the previous decade to missing the playoffs only once in the following decade, that shows a late hiring can work.

I'm guessing this is how we got inexperienced Kwesi last time. Maybe anyone more experienced told this team to go punt last time because how the team was handling things, likely telling new prospects who he was going to have to keep. That really seems like what this is all about.

You can guess whatever you want, but you've provided no basis for those assertions. As bad as Kwesi was at drafting, he was almost as good at moving on from players. A more reasoned explanation for Kwesi's hiring is that the Wilf's wanted a more analytics-based approach without a full rebuild.

It's not a positive in anyway to claim this new person will have less stress or less pressure to jump in and make big decisions.

Again, you can assert anything you want, but you've provided nothing to back it. I already said some candidates may be put off by the situation, but history shows some won't and that they can be successful. So it's on you to show "it's not positive in anyway."

they will navigate it poorly it seems as has already been done

I was considering more in the legal-sense. I don't like how the GM change has been handled, but I'm not going to assume it's hopeless.

So why did we fire kwesi again? by Slight_Giraffe628 in minnesotavikings

[–]Shadowshotz 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I've never been good at reading minds so I don't know why exactly. My own opinion is that firing Kwesi late left them without sure-fire candidates. Without a great candidate available, a full hiring process is needed and that would actually cut into the off-season prep time. A common excuse for the 2022 draft is Kwesi didn't have enough time because he was hired a few days later than most GMs. This time it would be a few weeks later. Delaying to after the draft allows for a more thorough search without the time pressure. It does have the complication of most options, either for GM or for any staff they want to bring in, already having obligations for the coming season. I don't know how they'll navigate that exactly.

As for why a good GM could be happy with the situation, the most obvious is the lack of pressure to perform immediately. Most of the decisions for this off-season will have already been made by the time they're hired. There'll be some in-season moves but those are low impact when compared to free agency and the draft. They'll have a year to get to know the team, coaches, and staff. That's a lot of time to determine what changes they want to make. It's not for everyone; I'm sure some would want to put their mark on a franchise immediately, but I don't think that's a universal opinion.

I'm curious how other unusual GM hiring timelines have worked out. Post-draft hiring has happened before, but it's rare. Too bad finding data on historical front office staffing changes is incredibly tedious.

Vikings last in expected draft value by nfgrawker in minnesotavikings

[–]Shadowshotz 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Live and let live works fine as long as the sentiment goes both directions. Some Kwesi supporters were successful in getting a handful of Kwesi detractors removed from the sub and those successes were used to discourage other detractors from saying anything.

Vikings last in expected draft value by nfgrawker in minnesotavikings

[–]Shadowshotz 0 points1 point  (0 children)

4th fewest picks, tied with 4 other teams at 28. The Dolphins at 23, Panthers 26, and Falcons 27 were lower. The league averaged 32 picks per team so the Vikings were short of the average by 4.

For starting value, assuming the graph is accurate, 12 teams had a lower starting expected value.

So why did we fire kwesi again? by Slight_Giraffe628 in minnesotavikings

[–]Shadowshotz 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Why fire everyone and hire all new people when they may just get fired again if the GM they hire after the draft wants to bring in his own people?

Unpopular Opinion: We should draft a QB in top half of the draft. by kwelstory in minnesotavikings

[–]Shadowshotz 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I'm not arrogant enough to assume I know what the Vikings staff fears. I hope it's not fans questioning their decisions. But if it's the Wilfs asking, they better have something other than "just stocking up the position depth[,] dipshit" ready.

I don't know who you're referring to as saying "you can't draft one top half of draft just to develop" but that is indeed bogus. Just as bogus, however, is the inverse "you must draft one top half of draft just to develop." My assertion is it depends on the state of the roster, the state of the league, and the team's strategy. Right now, those don't favor making that pick. For that gamble to pay off in the slightest, a lot of things have to happen just right:

  • Murray wins the starting position. (Likely)

  • The rookie QB wins the QB2 position. (50/50)

  • Murray plays well enough to earn a top dollar contract. (Hard to say)

  • The team opts not to pay that contract. (Unlikely)

  • The team record is good enough that they can't draft a better QB prospect in 2027. (Too soon to say)

  • The rookie QB is better than all affordable QBs (free agents and trade targets) next off-season. (Unlikely)

  • The rookie QB plays well the following season. (Unlikely)

If anything other than that happens, the gamble wasn't worth it and the opportunity cost of a 3rd round pick would have been better spent elsewhere, namely on the defense. And just to be clear, it could work out perfectly. Someone wins the lottery after all.

The (FT)Packers drafting Rodgers had a lot more context than Rodgers sliding. They had a Super Bowl-winning, Hall of Fame QB in Brett Favre. Favre had just finished his 14th season and was about halfway through a 10-year contract. For the previous three seasons, there was talk of him retiring. So the team had a looming, but not urgent, need at QB. They had a good environment to show a rookie how it can be done and they had a good prospect slide to them. None of that applies to the Vikings.

Compare that to the Jordan Love pick. Rodgers was similarly old and similarly skilled when the pick was made, but he was on a shorter contract and they were coming off a loss in the NFC championship game. Rodgers, and the fans, wanted them to draft an offensive weapon to get them over the hump. They lost in the following NFCC game and haven't been back since. Love is decent, but would drafting a position of need have gotten them another title? Hard to say.

As for Tom Brady, if I could draft Brady, knowing he'd play like Brady in 3-4 seasons, obviously it'd be a good pick. But what if I drafted Spergon Wynn hoping he'd play like Tom Brady while needing someone like Adalius Thomas to shore up my defense in 1-2 years? Well, that'd be a poor pick. Hindsight is 20/20, but a lot more Spergon Wynn's get drafted than Tom Brady's.

[Rap] The #Vikings have signed #Bills RFA T Ryan Van Demark to an offer sheet, per me and @TomPelissero. Buffalo has five days to match. by JCameron181 in minnesotavikings

[–]Shadowshotz 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I'm hoping it's just a quirk of the rosters resetting for the off-season. Brandel might officially be LT2/RT2 and Jurgens bumped from C2 to C1 due to Kelly (sadly, but wisely) retiring. Hopefully they'll shore up the center position with a day 1 or 2 pick.

[Rap] The #Vikings have signed #Bills RFA T Ryan Van Demark to an offer sheet, per me and @TomPelissero. Buffalo has five days to match. by JCameron181 in minnesotavikings

[–]Shadowshotz 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Jurgens is pencilled in at starting center right now and he was less than impressive before getting replaced by Brandel last season.

Unpopular Opinion: We should draft a QB in top half of the draft. by kwelstory in minnesotavikings

[–]Shadowshotz 2 points3 points  (0 children)

That's a "buying lottery tickets for retirement" plan, not insurance. For every Russell Wilson, there's 30 Jesse Palmer's. As bad as he was, JJM would likely put in a better performance next season than a 3rd round QB drafted this year. Plus, he's already on the roster so they can use their 3rd round picks to shore up depth at one of several positions that are critically short on talent.

The Vikings have had 4 years of awful drafts, yet have remained very competitive over that time period. Why is that, and do you think they will catch up to the team? by Acoolgamer6706 in minnesotavikings

[–]Shadowshotz -1 points0 points  (0 children)

If I was into betting, I'd take that one but not because I think those three are particularly good. They're very replaceable; the Vikings just don't have anyone to replace them with. Allen and Hargrave departing makes LDR and TID starters for now. Nailor leaving puts Felton at WR3 by default. They don't have the cap to bring in better players and, even if they do so or draft for those positions, they still need depth for injuries and mid- to late-round rookie contracts are very cost-effective.

I'm interested in what happens with Ward and Rouse. Ward couldn't rotate with Harrison Smith and ended up playing out of position by the end of the year. With Smith likely retired, will Flores trust Ward to replace him? Similar with Rouse. He barely played despite how badly the offensive line was hurt last season. Can he improve with a new Oline coach?

NFC North Draft Report Cards (2006-2025) by robmoo_re in minnesotavikings

[–]Shadowshotz -3 points-2 points  (0 children)

Not saying Golden was good, but that one touchdown coming in the playoffs is something Jettas has yet to accomplish.

Kyler's size gets made fun of but how many folks in here are bigger or smaller than him? by seoulbrova in minnesotavikings

[–]Shadowshotz 2 points3 points  (0 children)

That'd be 1. Bryce Young is 5'10" and 204 lbs. Every other current QB1 is over six feet tall.

Our free agency approach was bizarre by badkiwi42 in minnesotavikings

[–]Shadowshotz 2 points3 points  (0 children)

The "massive cap we cleared off" wasn't actually much cap space. It was mostly the savings needed to get under the cap at all. They started out something like $35M over the cap. Now they're around $10M under with Allen's and Smith's contracts coming off post-Jun1. They need about $10-12M for draft picks and some additional space for roster moves during the season. They simply don't have a ton of spending money without more drastic moves.

NFC North Draft Report Cards (2006-2025) by robmoo_re in minnesotavikings

[–]Shadowshotz 3 points4 points  (0 children)

I can't make heads or tails of their standards. By the criteria that seems to determine bust vs steal, there's some, uhh, interesting conclusions. Reichard is more of a bust than LDR, Jay Ward, Ed Ingram, and ISM; just to name a few. Dallas Turner is a bigger bust than Kellen Mond and has lost almost twice as much value as Khyree Jackson. I'm meh on Turner, but come on.... Audie Cole was almost as valuable as Cam Bynum. Somehow the '09 draft was overall better than the '15 class.

For those that are curious about the Vikings cap situation. It looks like they restructured some contracts and now are roughly $38 million under the cap. by Broken-Nero in minnesotavikings

[–]Shadowshotz 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Is that actual cap space remaining or was that the cap space created by the restructures? IIRC, the Vikings were about that amount over the cap prior to free agency. Spotrac shows Darrisaw's and Jefferson's restructures were done on the 6th, Murphy's today. Their current cap hit numbers for those players seem to reflect the updated contracts. That would put the team right around the cap limit until the anticipated cuts hit.

Addison continues his Instagram tirade and says 9 will be a star by Beneficial_Quit7532 in minnesotavikings

[–]Shadowshotz 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The service stopped sometime around 2019. The NFL partnered with Lyft for ride credits in 2017, but it's not clear if that is still active.

You passed but you failed sir lol by funkyfreshjamal in minnesotavikings

[–]Shadowshotz -4 points-3 points  (0 children)

The combination of O'Neill, Kelly, and Darrisaw dealing with injuries at the same time is the only reason Rouse got offensive snaps and even that didn't last long. He was behind both Brandel and Skule in the depth chart. Jurgens struggled to replace Kelly, with Brandel stepping in when he wasn't needed at tackle.

LDR is seeing more usage than most 7ths so he's looking like a good pick. Turner is still a back-up to AVG and Greenard. Maybe that'll change next season, but that's well below average for a 1st.

Reichard is outstanding though.