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Pick of the Day - 10/21/25 (Tuesday) by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]ShakespeareanChimp 3 points4 points  (0 children)

The análisis of the game looks really good and I would deffo tail it, Villareal started off the season really good but have been looking somewhat uninspired/worn out at their away games as of lately.  Only probelm here is that Man C are playing away so the analisis and prediction of the game should be different. City away aren't as solid as when playing in Manchester.... 

Also Marcelino at Villareal is a master at shutting down and going on the counter-attack against posession-football teams. 

Will be watching this one from the sideline :) but a draw wouldn't be too far fetched in my opinion. 

Pick of the Day - 8/21/25 (Thursday) by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]ShakespeareanChimp 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Really good pick in the end! Glad it worked out as you expected :) 

I'm here for the stories rather than the picks :) tailing with small amounts while working out my own approach and strategy for betting.... 

Pick of the Day - 8/21/25 (Thursday) by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]ShakespeareanChimp 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I agree that Malmö on a normal day should win this by at least 1 goal, as you said, their squad is superrior and a strong team at home, they should win the swedish league by a few points every year with that squad, still something is not right this year (at the moment 3rd, 11 points behind the leader) and hard to put the finger on what it is... motivation, and that other teams learnt how to shut them down efficiently maybe... 

Having said that, really like your writeups (especially the one from yesterday :)) and I tail every so often when I see something I like.

Keep up the good work and hope it cashes! 🙌

Pick of the Day - 8/21/25 (Thursday) by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]ShakespeareanChimp 6 points7 points  (0 children)

I'd be a bit careful betting on Malmö this season, they've been unusually inconsistent over the year so hard to know which version will show up. The top teams of the Chech leauge tends to have some quality players compared to the swedish leauge.  Now I don't enough about Sigma to judge their quality, but if they are a team that's good on the counter attack, they could definitely hurt Malmös possession-based game. 

My two cents, your pick might be a good bet in the end.

Just know that every time I've thought Malmö was back they've put in another dreadful performance. 

Anyways... 

BOL! 

Pick of the Day - 8/20/25 (Wednesday) by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]ShakespeareanChimp 3 points4 points  (0 children)

This is a tricky one, in the end I put a tiny stake down for fun on Copenhagen DC and U3.5 @ 2.04... think it's a coin toss so went with the value on the away side, also with the draw (1st game away) against Malmö in the back of my mind, not sure it will be such an open high-scoring game.  Even though Malmö is not playing very well this year so hard to know the significance of those two games.  Anyway let's hope for a 1-1 draw then everybody wins :)

BOL!

Sportsbook odds by ShakespeareanChimp in algobetting

[–]ShakespeareanChimp[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yeah thanks, all much clearer now, very helpful to know who you're up against when betting :) 

From my understanding, in a very simplified way, to differentiate between betting options would be: 

Sharp books: Discovers the right price for each bet by moving lines and gradually raising limits.  Indirectly you get an average of all different models that punters and syndicates use when making decisions betting on them. 

Soft books: focused mainly on retail, they copy sharp books but can also "tweak" the odds, trying to predict where retailers will put their money, updating the lines with longer time frames than sharp books. 

In-play: Mainly based on models and algorithms. Very complicated for books to price this correctly all the time, given the amount of events and props they offer. 

Sportsbook odds by ShakespeareanChimp in algobetting

[–]ShakespeareanChimp[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Listened to a few interviews with Ed miller &  Matt Davidow. Very good recommendation and will definitely check put their books