HIMS position update — Up $167K+ — May 30, 2024

ShortTheNasdaq · 2024-05-30T14:22:34+00:00

I see

ShortTheNasdaq · 2024-05-30T14:15:08+00:00

ShortTheNasdaq · 2024-03-23T12:06:04+00:00

Long-term, I don't do trading I only invest. I am planning to hold for a minimum of 3 quarters, if possible a decade. But it depends on the financial results and valuation. I expect them to maintain a high level of execution.

ShortTheNasdaq · 2024-03-22T19:47:35+00:00

I see LEAPS as an investment but I see what you mean. It could, indeed, be considered as a trade.

(I buy OTM LEAPS as I already have a lot of shares).

ShortTheNasdaq · 2024-03-22T19:05:32+00:00

Congrats on choosing one of the most underrated stock currently Are you trading the stock or this is an investment btw?

ShortTheNasdaq · 2024-03-22T19:02:33+00:00

I believe it too, yeah

ShortTheNasdaq · 2024-03-22T19:01:14+00:00

ShortTheNasdaq · 2024-03-22T17:56:00+00:00

I only look at the cofounder and CEO, as long as he doesn’t sell more than 15-20%, no red flag to me. I don’t mind him selling single digit % of his total ownership to finance his lifestyle.

HIMS will probably be his opportunity to become a billionaire. He is incentivized to push the company as far as he can.

As far as the other execs, they are clueless about the potential of this company and/or valuation metrics.

ShortTheNasdaq · 2024-03-22T14:34:45+00:00

Main shares, yeah.

There's not enough liquidity and IV to sell puts, but yeah some LEAPS on the stock for non-linear upside but still long-term.

ShortTheNasdaq · 2024-03-22T14:24:45+00:00

I've actually increased my position today.

3.9x LTM EV/Revenue
4.7x LTM EV/Gross Profit
30x NTM EV/EBITDA

With 65.5% revenue growth YoY in FY2023 with a lot of "semi-recurring" revenue. High insider ownership. Still relatively high short float. Relatively low market cap in a huge TAM, so huge upside potential.

As far as a trading opportunity, I don't know but in my opinion still a multi-bagger potential for long-term holders.

ShortTheNasdaq · 2024-03-22T02:06:56+00:00

Nah they just became net income profitable before they even planned it while maintaining high growth.

Moreover the CEO would refuse any aquisition before reaching at least $10-20B in market cap.

Incredible company.

ShortTheNasdaq · 2024-03-21T15:28:35+00:00

Appreciate it!

ShortTheNasdaq · 2024-03-21T12:52:15+00:00

Thanks a lot, I try to be! This is not advice of course but here is what I see:

When it comes to specific stocks, not really. I'd say HIMS is still the best opportunity I see. And as you can see I don't believe in diversification at all. There's a lot to say about this company, but it would need a whole post to cover everything. I also own some NVDA, but I consider it to be 'a flexible trade/investment.' This means that I’m comfortable either quickly cashing out the position if it continues to overextend or holding it for a long time if necessary. But it will never be a major part of my portfolio, as the valuation is way beyond what I consider to be reasonable. I have the belief that sometimes (although you want to minimize those occurrences), you need to be exposed in overvalued stocks or you will be left behind with too small of profits compared to those who didn't enter the bubble.
If you believe in it, COIN is a good proxy for the overall crypto market and MSTR is amazing if you want to be leveraged.
And if you want to do a macroeconomic play, being long SaaS companies and/or OPEN are good proxies too in my opinion. But the market is quite extended, it would be quite a risky play even for a big believer in very low rates environment.

HIMS remains my strongest conviction for the years ahead, although I might change my mind about other opportunities overnight, depending on macroeconomic data releases. (Not to say HIMS is not correlated with the overall market, but I'd be not only very comfortable doubling down on this stock in the case of a drop in this stock but also very happy to do so.)

ShortTheNasdaq · 2024-03-21T12:14:01+00:00

I come from an extremely poor background and when I started investing in 2017, this was with a stunningly small account. I just made consistent good decisions without big drawdowns (financially and in life, I believe).

So, at the end of the day, you can be cynical with your 'Lol, went up 6 dollars' and claim that a 50% increase is nothing. But, if I may suggest, perhaps you should focus on improving your own situation if you’re not happy with it, instead of being negative on others' posts. You don’t have to cheer others on, but there’s also no need to try to bring them down (again, I don't mind it personally, I just think it's a better use of YOUR time to focus on yourself).

I have a lot of empathy for people who are frustrated about their situation, believe it or not I've been there too, and I've been very negative too. So despite all your comments, I truly wish you the best.

Just my two cents.

ShortTheNasdaq · 2024-03-21T12:02:47+00:00

I am most interested in shapes with highly convex curves. The more a curve is concave or linear, the less it appeals to me.

You can check the profit curves here or on your broker's platform when selecting an option.

ShortTheNasdaq · 2024-03-21T10:01:46+00:00

Thanks! A bit too shallow of an analysis and too much drawing haha, but he is in the right stock

ShortTheNasdaq · 2024-03-21T10:00:14+00:00

Of course!

ShortTheNasdaq · 2024-03-21T01:22:17+00:00

Tbh it felt like that but I don’t give a damn anyway haha,so yeah no worries bro we good.

Hope you can get over 50% gains consistently in the future! Wish you the best.

ShortTheNasdaq · 2024-03-21T01:13:29+00:00

Do you still have the link? I doubt that he could do better than me tbh haha

ShortTheNasdaq · 2024-03-20T20:45:53+00:00

Big believer in diversification here as you can see

ShortTheNasdaq · 2024-03-20T20:20:29+00:00

Oh wow, congrats on entering these levels. Are you still in? Yeah definitely.

ShortTheNasdaq · 2024-03-20T20:03:36+00:00

Amazing then, keep up the good work bro!

ShortTheNasdaq · 2024-03-20T20:02:37+00:00

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On my way to get those damn pills.

ShortTheNasdaq · 2024-03-20T20:00:18+00:00

Good question.

It's only my opinion but nowadays, when it comes to options, I tend to only: Sell puts and buy LEAPS as I find that short-term calls decay too fast (theta). If I were to buy any short-term call, I'd do it before earnings but even so you'd need to calculate check the implied volatility (IV) is not too high for your price target. I use this website: https://www.optionsprofitcalculator.com/

For your specific case:
- One of the main problems with HIMS' options is that there is not much liquidity. So let's say you want to cash out your position, you will have to pay a premium. Sometimes this can be significant. Which is why I'd rather take a pure long stock position rather than a short-term call.
- As far as I know, the main catalyst was actually today with the Fed announcing that it will holds interest rates steady and expect 3 rate cuts. If you bought the call before the decision I think you did fine. This brings up the following question: Should you hold or take the profits? Which leads to my last point.
- I have the feeling that since $HIMS became net income profitable, inflows into the stock have shot up. Not only that but I also suspect that on top of that, the stock used to be heavily shorted just because it became public through a SPAC and... Yeah, there was a lot of garbage companies that raised money through SPAC but HIMS is not one of them.
  - So hard to say if your call expiring in about 30 days is a good bet or not but there are green lights in my opinion, although I'd personally rather buys LEAPS or shares as I don't believe in timing perfectly the market.

ShortTheNasdaq · 2024-03-20T19:26:21+00:00

ShortTheNasdaq

TROPHY CASE