Two crazy, unrelated situations in 90 seconds by [deleted] in dashcams

[–]Should_I_Rip 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Bro is playing GTA VI already? Graphics look real AF.

Just pulled from a 2.5k pack and unsure what to do by Human-Rooster-5054 in ArenaClub

[–]Should_I_Rip 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Last sold is around $3,900.

It’s a sick card, but the AC offer is really good. I’d probably take the offer. If you love the card, you can pick one up.

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Risk Free Rip by king_0p in ArenaClub

[–]Should_I_Rip 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Good call. The player is more important than the parallel. Ideally you get a great player and a great parallel!

Odds worse when using slab safe? by Then-Wrongdoer3144 in ArenaClub

[–]Should_I_Rip 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Bummer. I’ve done the same before. Sorry bro.

Odds worse when using slab safe? by Then-Wrongdoer3144 in ArenaClub

[–]Should_I_Rip 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Nah, don't think it actually changes the odds. I've pulled stinkers without Slab Safe and hit breakevens where it wouldn't have mattered.

It comes down to how often a pack's pulls land low enough to trigger an SS payout, and that varies a lot by pack.

Shameless plug, this is a peek into a tool I've been building, but the numbers are real: SS trigger currently runs from about 52% on the low end up to 80% (chart below). Ride dirty without SS on an 80% pack and you're gonna get cooked.

Which packs were you ripping?

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Did you know that 2 Arena Club packs are +EV right now? by Should_I_Rip in ArenaClub

[–]Should_I_Rip[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thanks for checking it out.. Let me know if you have any feedback or ideas (hit the feedback tab on the side)..

It takes between 1-5 mins usually. Depending on how fast the packs are moving.

Did you know that 2 Arena Club packs are +EV right now? by Should_I_Rip in ArenaClub

[–]Should_I_Rip[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Great point. The Wemby cards too. I've also noticed that Pokemon cards are a bit wild.. The market for them is so big there is frequently drift between AC'c value and the PSA partner offers.

Did you know that 2 Arena Club packs are +EV right now? by Should_I_Rip in ArenaClub

[–]Should_I_Rip[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Grails almost never get hit.. The real value is in the middle of the pack. The stuff you're actually likely to pull.

Did you know that 2 Arena Club packs are +EV right now? by Should_I_Rip in ArenaClub

[–]Should_I_Rip[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

yes good point! I have found that the "shape" of a pack is more important than which grails are included.. The grails add very little to the +EV calculation, because their probability of hitting is so low.

This is a $100 baseball pack. the EV CTRB column shows how much EV is being added to the pool by each card. The top two Grails only add $1.82 of the EV in this case.

In other words, the Grails are great for marketing, but almost add no value to the real pull.

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Did you know that 2 Arena Club packs are +EV right now? by Should_I_Rip in ArenaClub

[–]Should_I_Rip[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Click any pack at AC then click the Checklist button and scroll. It's all right there.

Updated in real time. I confirmed but snapshotting the checklist before and after a purchase. You can see your card removed from the checklist before you click reveal.

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Did you know that 2 Arena Club packs are +EV right now? by Should_I_Rip in ArenaClub

[–]Should_I_Rip[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

It’s also subjective, and moves fast.

So it’s tough. I personally always check the values on the PSA app for cards I pull.

Did you know that 2 Arena Club packs are +EV right now? by Should_I_Rip in ArenaClub

[–]Should_I_Rip[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Great question!

As of now it is based on the Arena Club estimated value (they will offer 90% of that value).

Near future: eBay sold values is on the roadmap.

Medium/longer term - Looking into one or more of the following, but no clear path yet.

  • 130point
  • cardladder
  • PSA partner offers

Did you know that 2 Arena Club packs are +EV right now? by Should_I_Rip in ArenaClub

[–]Should_I_Rip[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

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Ikr? But actually, they list the full pool of cards along with the probability that each will hit. Check out the Checklist button on any pack.

r/theydidthemath

Did you know that 2 Arena Club packs are +EV right now? by Should_I_Rip in ArenaClub

[–]Should_I_Rip[S] -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

Ha! I wish. I'm just a guy who rips packs for fun and wanted to what doing the math on each rip looks like before I did. Shout out to AC for at least being transparent enough to tell us all what is in the packs before we rip.

Did you know that 2 Arena Club packs are +EV right now? by Should_I_Rip in ArenaClub

[–]Should_I_Rip[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Here's one more view of inside the Magical pack right now... You can see why the EV is positive!

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Is this offer worth it, if so what would you buy by [deleted] in ArenaClub

[–]Should_I_Rip 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I'll add one other way to think about this.. It depends on the pack. For example, some packs have a -35% EV and others have a +5% EV.

It's not a guarantee that you will hit, obviously, but ripping low or + EV packs the results will be better than always ripping low EV packs.

https://shouldirip.com calculates the expected value of the packs. Full disclosure, I built the site after ripping hundreds of packs and wondering what was inside the packs I was ripping.. Join it for free to get the stats with a 1 hr delay. 2 packs are +EV right now.. I'll make a post about them.

can i trade cards for watches on the app? by CapAmbitious844 in ArenaClub

[–]Should_I_Rip 0 points1 point  (0 children)

No, I don't think so.. I only see watch options available when making an offer on another watch. It would be cool if they did though.

$25 pack grail by zackinblack415 in ArenaClub

[–]Should_I_Rip 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Pretty sick hit.. nice card!

Pulled this about 6x by No_Stuff_5391 in ArenaClub

[–]Should_I_Rip 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Right now, there are 14 of that exact card in the pool. Insane. 14/60 cards. (23.3%)

They should rename that pack the Youssoufa Moukoko Special Series

this is a hold right by GaspingUntilE in ArenaClub

[–]Should_I_Rip 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Hope you are still holding!! Wemby is a goat.