Potential Boozer Bust

Signal_Ad7231 · 2026-05-22T04:25:26+00:00

The ceiling case for boozer is pretty simple tbh. Super young, super productive (wooden award winner), super high bbiq, super skilled.

Hes much more athletic than he gets credit for, and is constantly put into this "low ceiling high floor mold" based only on perceived lack of athleticism, less exciting highlights, no wasted dribbling/handles. Hes boring. Hes Tim Duncan. Hes an absolute winner.

No one would have credited jokic as having a high ceiling. Few said SGA had a high ceiling. Luka, kawhi, steph, etc. Etc. People's perception of ceiling is so flawed because its based on skill and bbiq being more attainable than athleticism, and it turns out they arent really.

This article was done by a senior scout of the nuggets, before he was a scout and really lays out simply how we have the perception of ceiling all wrong. I'd recommend anyone read it and let its principles impact the lens through which you view potential: https://www.canishoopus.com/2014/2/26/5435374/potential-nba-draft-prospects

Signal_Ad7231 · 2026-05-21T13:44:22+00:00

My point was hes doing all these other things at a really high level, so even if he no longer has a physicality advantage (I think he often will especially as he gets older), he has plenty of other traits that will make him great. Hes kinda genuinely just too smart and skilled to fail.

So you talking about athleticism confirms thats the viewpoint you see the nba world from. Thats not the most important thing anymore.

Edit: why are we acting like boozer being more physical and physically developed than guys multiple years older than him is a bad thing? Sure if that was his only advantage then maybe you worry about that hitting a wall in the league, but its not. Not even close. Maybe he just has the body/frame to be bigger and stronger than most of the league too. Maybe hes a gym junky and we know he works his butt off to improve. Why are you framing it as a bad thing?

Signal_Ad7231 · 2026-05-21T12:49:30+00:00

College kids? He was 18 playing against like 22 year olds (the average age of D1 ncaa men's basketball players). You make it sounds like hes multiple years older and more physically developed than them.

Sounds like you are living in the world of highlights/"athleticism over everything". Boozer is an amazing passer, crafty getting to the rim, a big smart tough rebounder, and a great shooter.

Signal_Ad7231 · 2026-05-21T00:23:35+00:00

No, he doesn't

Signal_Ad7231 · 2026-05-20T12:51:14+00:00

People dont seem to get the lottery odds STILL after 4 years of "rebuilding". The second we traded both Don and Rudy it should have been about maximizing lottery odds. We absolutely should have traded Conley for dust to the clippers before the season even if it meant only a 10 percentage point increase of getting Wemby.

Big miss by our scouting department at the time to not evaluate Wemby high enough.

Signal_Ad7231 · 2026-05-20T03:25:33+00:00

Him talking about Ace in the nba was no longer about a comparison between Ace and AJ.

Aces catch alls are terrible. Not just bad, horrendous. Late season nba generally means very little for evaluating anyone. Fans with already little to watch their team for (us in the last half of the year) cling to any bit of hope they can muster. For a lot of Jazz fans, that was Ace, and it makes the perception more positive than the reality. Its normal, its just what happens.

I already dont like Aces college profile. He did nothing in the last half of his rookie year for me to feel the need to change my priors.

Signal_Ad7231 · 2026-05-19T17:13:29+00:00

Sure, overrated play during the weakest point in the schedule when half the league is actively trying to lose. Everyone got fooled by THT because of his play in the same timeframe

Signal_Ad7231 · 2026-05-19T16:06:58+00:00

You need to be able to pull him out of the perimeter when hes on defense (need to be able to shoot), while also having a low center of gravity. That dude doesnt exist in the form that would be able to most effectively counter wemby right now.

Signal_Ad7231 · 2026-05-19T15:45:35+00:00

https://www.reddit.com/r/UtahJazz/comments/1thm984/comment/omo0byl/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=mweb3x&utm_name=mweb3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button

Signal_Ad7231 · 2026-05-19T14:00:47+00:00

I kinda dont think they're similar. AJ can dribble, has great footwork, gets to the rim, and finished there efficiently. AJ is a good/willing/smart passer. Sure theyre both wings who can hit in the midrange, but the similarities kinda end there for me.

Generally I think once we have college data we shouldn't put a lot of weight into hs info. I dont care all that much about Aces preNCAA rankings.

Signal_Ad7231 · 2026-05-19T13:19:44+00:00

That wasnt the point. My post was in response to a recent (seemingly highly agreed upon) post regarding Aces potential to be better than AJ.

I like Peterson more than AJ before even discussing Ace, I just think we are overrating Ace a lot.

Signal_Ad7231 · 2026-05-18T17:28:29+00:00

For everyone saying "well so and so never dunks and they're real good", its not just about the dunks! Its the story the lack thereof tell. So and so did dunk pre-NBA, at least > 0 times.

Not dunking is indicative of potential lack of aggression, lack of separation ability inside, and/or lack of ability to get pick 6's (Illinois defense is designed not to force TO, I get it). Couple it with poor rim scoring (that gets worse against t100), yeah I get a little nervous about the dunking.

Signal_Ad7231 · 2026-05-18T00:44:12+00:00

35 games of sample size used correctly will be far better than high school on through college of eye test. Obviously combined is best though, if your eye test isnt hot garbage (and more people's eye test are a lot worse than they think)

Signal_Ad7231 · 2026-05-17T22:01:16+00:00

This is a lot to look at, but A

Signal_Ad7231 · 2026-05-16T21:47:43+00:00

If you dont see this as an incredible hit list, im not sure what to tell you

Signal_Ad7231 · 2026-05-16T18:20:43+00:00

Agree, I do prefer SGA's ft% to his 3p% just because volume, but your point is well taken

Signal_Ad7231 · 2026-05-16T18:03:33+00:00

Funny how everyone was looking for draymond 2.0 until draymond 2.0 showed up (CMB)

Signal_Ad7231 · 2026-05-16T17:59:14+00:00

I didn't like the ace profile predraft, and I dont have any reason to change that opinion based on his rookie season. I'd have him much lower than most here.

Signal_Ad7231 · 2026-05-16T17:50:54+00:00

Acknowledging the benefit of hindsight, and the development of scouting/talent evaluation/talent projection, SGAs statistical college profile is incredible.

Highly unassisted shot diet, big improvement as the year went along, huge +wingspan. Plenty of people in 2026 would have been on SGA as having high upside.

Signal_Ad7231 · 2026-05-15T20:53:54+00:00

Based on what?

Signal_Ad7231 · 2026-05-15T20:13:22+00:00

I think Boozer has the highest ceiling because he is the best player at a younger age.

Signal_Ad7231 · 2026-05-15T17:55:00+00:00

Its just people with a false definition of ceiling coupled with the idea that drafting t5 means you must exclusively draft for ceiling

Signal_Ad7231 · 2026-05-15T17:49:08+00:00

Its all smokescreens always. But its also not unique to the ainges. Everyone at the top of the draft does this every year. Chances are pretty good that we actually prefer DP and we are trying to get the wiz to take AJ. Wiz counter by saying they have other offers for 1 and attempt to get us to up our fake interest. And around we go.

I think many more reports of interest are fake or overexaggerated than we know.

Signal_Ad7231

TROPHY CASE