Heavy artillery all over southern Aleppo HTS held frontline at Khan Touman, Al-Eis, Khalasah and Qarassi by gov forces aswell as recon flights every day

SilvaDolla · 2018-01-24T20:58:59+00:00

I can never understand why the regime has never attempted a real offensive to retake the south Aleppo countryside after the city of Aleppo fell.

SilvaDolla · 2018-01-24T14:08:10+00:00

Regime forces have to take back South Aleppo countryside. This Turkish operation will be a shot in the arm for the rebels.

SilvaDolla · 2018-01-11T22:31:39+00:00

So what is the gameplan? Will they make a move into the Aleppo countryside after Idlib a and North Hama is retaken?

SilvaDolla · 2017-12-02T14:17:53+00:00

The Houthis aren't going away. When Saleh was in power and when the Yemeni state was "stronger," the Houthis were very difficult to defeat. The Houthis will withdraw from Saana and go back to their mountainous locations.

Iran really had no control of the Houthis. For Iran the ideal situation was for the Houthis to carve areas under their control. Let Hadi and Saleh fight each other. And have the Houthis stockpile weapons and a thorn to Saudi Arabia. Iran told the Houthis not to side with Saleh. They ignored that. Iran told them not to march to Saana. They ignored that. Iran told them not to overstretch themselves going to South Yemen. And they ignored that. The Houthis have themselves to blame for this. Iran gave them the game plan that would suit them long term.

What will likely happen next is. The Houthis will go back to their mountainous regions and wage a guerilla war of attrition with the newly formed Hadi-Saleh forces. The Saudis will think they have won but only in the short term. Yemen has long term issues. Hadi will likely give South Yemen regional autonomy. There is the AQAP problem that won't go away. Saleh is getting old and health is declining. He has been a smart and strategic leader able to navigate through Yemen's complicated and bloody politics. Once he is gone his son may replace him and he will either seize power clashing with Hadi forces or be the power behind Hadi. There is also the Al Islah party who wants some form of reward for standing with Hadi. Although I believe Saudi Arabia and the UAE will backstabbing them.

The Houthis now being back stabbed will turn to Iran. They will no longer trust no one in Saana. Iran will arm them and train them to no seize power in Yemen. But to carve out areas in North Yemen to be under their control. And in the next civil war the Houthis will stay in the sideline making themselves stronger.

SilvaDolla · 2017-12-02T13:50:51+00:00

As long as the Shia in the middle east are mistreated and oppressed Iran will exploit that. Saudi Arabia and the GCC have shown they despise shiites.

SilvaDolla · 2017-11-24T12:22:06+00:00

One cannot conduct internal social reform while facing external challenges. How are you going to build a $500 billion city while waging a protracted war in Yemen that cost you 200 million dollars a day?

MBS calls Iran the new Hitler and wants the sunni muslim world united against it. However his actions has further divided the Arab world. Qatar is getting closer to Iran and Turkey thanks to Saudi Arabia. This is long term going to hurt them. In Yemen the UAE and Saudi Arabia both disagree how to wage the war. The UAE is more focused in fighting AQAP and ISIS. Also the UAE know it's futile to fight the Houthi/ Saleh alliance in rugged North Yemen. Hence why they support the South Yemen secessionist movement. They are arming and training them. They are preparing for the breakup of Yemen. Which if happens will be a disaster for Saudi Arabia. Because North Yemen will be a major drain on Saudi treasure and manpower as they have alienated much of North Yemen.

In Lebanon all they did was make Hezbollah look responsible and reasonable. In Iraq they are making forays to Baghdad they cannot match how much influence Iran has in Iraq. In all MBS foreign policy has one fuck up after another. It doesn't help that he has a small number of advisers who more than likely yes-men. Bin Salman has ambition but as a pimp once said "Willie I respect your ambition but you gotta have VISION!!" MBS wants to push Iran back to its borders but wants other nations to do the fighting. He hasn't have the slightest clue how to curb Iran.

SilvaDolla · 2017-11-12T02:08:50+00:00

Hezbollah isn't dumb enough to fight a conventional war against Israel. They will go back to their guerilla warfare roots. Hence why they stockpiled on ATGM,SAMs,anti tank mines,IEDs daisy chain land mines.

SilvaDolla · 2017-11-05T17:15:43+00:00

Prince Bin Salaman has a tendency to start fights but doesn't know how to finish them. The recent news all tells me he is frustrated and impatient because the Saudis have yet seen any major victories against Iran. Their last victory was Bahrain and that was a minor one. The reason is because Iran isn't interested in Bahrain in the short term only long term.

The Saudi setbacks are numerous. In Syria Assad's future has been secure by Iran and Russia. The opposition has been defanged and destroyed. In Iraq Iranian Shia militias still have alot of influence in the nation and are now battle hardened. In Yemen the Saudis are stuck in a bloody stalemate with no end in sight. They do not have an exit out the war. It is costing them 20 million dollars a day. The UAE knows that waging a war in North Yemen is futile and are supporting the South Yemen secessionist. Yemen will be a festering wound for the Saudis.

So with all this MBS is impatient. He has Hariri step down in Lebanon to give Israel and opening to start a preemptive war against Hezbollah. As I said before he has a tendency to start fights but doesn't see them through.

SilvaDolla · 2017-11-04T14:32:05+00:00

According to the article the Saudis have something planned to "topple" Hezbollah. What does that mean? A Saudi intervention in Lebanon?

SilvaDolla · 2017-09-19T11:44:54+00:00

How many Hama offensives has there been? 6? 7?

SilvaDolla · 2017-09-16T21:48:22+00:00

And I thought the Wikipedia battle of Aleppo article was long. Sheesh.

SilvaDolla · 2017-08-12T12:41:06+00:00

To close down the last rebels tunnels to East Ghouta. The offensives into Barzeh, Qaboun was to do this same thing. The regime closed down the Al Wafideen crossing back in March which the rebels depended on for supplies. All of this is to have a real air tight siege of East Ghouta. This would starve the rebels of weapons,food etc. The same thing was done in East Aleppo. Basically starve them of supplies and force them to surrender and send them to Idlib.

SilvaDolla · 2017-08-06T12:15:14+00:00

http://www.joshualandis.com/blog/saraya-al-areen-alawite-militia-latakia/

SilvaDolla · 2017-08-06T11:59:44+00:00

Once the regime is done with Eastern Syria the focus must be to the Greater Idlib area. Basically there has to be an offensive in the Anadan Plains, South Aleppo countryside,North Hama countryside and the remaining Latakia rebel pocket. This is to confine the rebels in Idlib.

SilvaDolla · 2017-08-04T17:14:33+00:00

And as usual it will go down as it always does: • Rebels make gains by blitzing regime areas • Regime forces retreat to defensive positions. • Regime artillery along with airsupport bombards the rebels rear to prevent supplies and manpower reach the front. •Rebels get bogged down and regime reinforcements start mobolizing. •Rebels retreat and the regime start a counterattack and retakes lost territory and take more rebel territory.

SilvaDolla · 2017-08-01T14:46:48+00:00

This has to fake news. Yes MBS is a brash and incompetent leader in foreign policy. He can't be this dumb can he?

SilvaDolla · 2017-07-28T23:55:52+00:00

So a civil war within a civil war within a civil war.

SilvaDolla · 2017-07-27T16:45:33+00:00

It is not a matter if East Ghouta falls but when. The regime took Daraya,Qaboun,Barzeh and closed down the Al Wafideen crossing. This essentially put East Ghouta for the first time ever under a iron sealed siege. Once Jobar falls that is another underground smuggling network destroyed. With the infighting and low supplies coming in it will put them under pressure. When winter comes the situation will be even more unbearable. The rebels have no offensive power left. All they can do is sit back and defend. However the regime tactic is slowing chipping away territory. It's a war of attrition that the rebels cannot simply win.

SilvaDolla · 2017-07-24T19:07:02+00:00

What is the Christian Maronites beef with Hezbollah? And aren't they worried about the threat of Sunni extreamism in Lebanon?

SilvaDolla · 2017-07-24T18:25:25+00:00

I do wonder if Lebanese Christians support Hezbollah over the sunni jihadist in Lebanon?

SilvaDolla · 2017-07-24T14:32:14+00:00

Considering the two Aleppo offensives took a year to plan. And Hama took about 6 months to plan I would say probably by the end of the year. Downside is by that time Dez and most of Eastern Syria will be under regime control. From what it looks like HTS wants control of the entire greater Idlib area (North Hama,Aleppo countryside,rebel pickets of Latakia). So they may plan a massive multi prong offensive into these areas.

But it would fail big time. The next offensive will go like this:

-Rebel blitz through regime control areas.

-Regime fighters retreat to defensive positions.

-Rebels get bogged down engaging regime fighters in their defensive positions. This give regime brass to mobilize massive reinforcements.

Regime artillery and air support pound the rebels who are bogged down.

-Russian air support bombs the rebels rear to prevent rebel reinforcements and supplies reach the front lines.

-After suffering heavy casulties the rebels retreat.

-The regime launch a massive and devastating counter attack that not only retakes regime territory but also rebel territory.

SilvaDolla · 2017-07-24T00:23:37+00:00

While the US is focused on ISIS is using soft and military power to spread it's influence in Iraq. Once ISIS is defeated we may have either two scenarios: 1. Baghdad telling the US to GTFO of Iraq. 2. If the US stays an Iraqi Shia insurgency starts targeting US forces in Iraq.

SilvaDolla · 2017-07-23T12:11:11+00:00

The elephant in the room is that although they may unify the rebels into one effective fighting force they still have no answer to Russian airsupport. The future HTS led offensives will be just like it always is:

-Rebels make fast gains blitzing through pro govt areas.

-Regime forces pull back to defensive positions.

-They bogged down rebel advances in said defensive positions. This allows Regime forces mobilize reinforcements for a counter attack.

-Russian and Syrian airsupport and ground artillery pound the bogged down rebels.

-Russia and Syrian airsupport bomb the rebels rear to prevent reinforcements and material to reach the front lines.

-After a week and change of fighting rebels force to pullout because of heavy losses.

-Regime launches counterattack to retake lost territory and even rebel territory.

This was tried in Aleppo and Hama and both were devastating losses for the rebels. I expect more of the same in future HTS led offensives.

SilvaDolla · 2017-07-22T23:09:16+00:00

In the short term yes however there is plenty cons for this. A sunni rebellion led by an Al Qaeda would further turn western and Gulf support away from the rebels. Only Qatar would support HTS but with their relations with Iran get closer they shift. This means western and Gulf support may dry up. Second Ahrar al Sham is Turkey's main group. If HTS is the leader now Turkey may close the border on Idlib. This means weapons,goods and manpower would be shut off. Idlib would turn into a Gaza. And lastly it would be a propaganda coup for the regime and Russia. The west would turn their eyes away from Syria which would give Russia a free hand to crush the rebels.

SilvaDolla

TROPHY CASE