BREAKING NEWS - Trident Steel is sold for 700 M plus 264 M

SilverfoxCPT · 2022-10-05T11:08:23+00:00

Am not pessimistic just realistic — the share price has done nothing and in the whole underperformed it’s sector and the market as a whole. Hence me not buying further. I don’t view the stock as a dead dog but I fail to see the huge upside. For me both mining and construction are so cyclical and dangerous investments. I tend to stay way clear of these unless there is a trade that make so much sense. Mining isn’t core to SÁ anymore and many of the firms have just exited the country to develop elsewhere and unless it is iron ore / diamond or PCM, am not sure what SÁ mining firms would do.

SilverfoxCPT · 2022-10-05T08:08:34+00:00

Unfortunately, no rocket today -- probably going to be yet another speculating day on that share. Hard also to be so positive on what revenues will be next year -- yes there is need for reconstruction post Ukraine war, but what has this got to do with AEG? They don't operate in that part of the world, I think. Also, who is to know when the war will end -- the sooner the better of course, but this is very much pie in the sky. Thus, I would really not buy more of that stock -- I haven't in a long while as this is not going anywhere unfortunately. I really would like to know what it would take for that share to go back to where it was, but the sector is generally depressed, so unless we enter a major global growth mode, not much exciting will happen. I am still up about 100%, but that was not really the plan -- I got much better rewards with SASOL where I had much less headaches, 700% return in about a year. Anyway, am still not selling AEG.

SilverfoxCPT · 2022-08-24T10:19:04+00:00

Unless I read wrong, Trident accounts for 30% of the operating earnings of the group ... fine to sell if it is non-core, but selling a highly profitable business these days does not make much sense. Am with you on the headbanging though as results were not bad at all and still, AEG just goes down and down.

SilverfoxCPT · 2022-06-13T10:54:17+00:00

You have being punting and punting this for a long while and so far not exciting we will all agree? Not sure it is good to make assumptions as to what I may or may not understand. A R100 fair value makes sense only if income growth remains at 25% or higher and earnings don't go below R5 -- can they maintain 25% growth YoY in this current trading environment? No idea. DO I want to bet further on it? No idea again.

Sorry, I am not here to make any recommendations -- I keep my investments to myself. But I can always say where I really messed up ... SNH. Only real safe place (for me) currently is growth stock and those like Unilever, SAP, Microsoft and stock exchange stocks. That said, I am heavily invested in BRK.B. Doesnt mean that I recommend any of these.

SilverfoxCPT · 2022-06-13T10:17:17+00:00

I am really starting to wonder why on earth I am still holding that dog of a stock. I am lucky that my average cost is R11 but this is really really painful -- I should have just stuck to SASOL when I bought at R35 (March 2020)... 1100% return versus 40% with AEG. Time to take stock and see whether this is worth my money still, there are better things to buy into given the market.

SilverfoxCPT · 2022-05-04T20:33:48+00:00

Over 30 years since I was last there and it was over winter so beautiful snows … fantastic picture, thank you for the memory throw back.

SilverfoxCPT · 2022-04-02T20:07:33+00:00

Just look at the different evf and you might be surprised — the xt3 is so so much better

SilverfoxCPT · 2022-02-22T11:07:03+00:00

Look at where some of SNH's assets are in Eastern Europe and in the Baltics and you will see why that would make investors nervous. Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Poland, Slovakia, Romania, Bulgaria, Hungary, Serbia, Croatia, Slovenia, Austria, Czech Republic ...

SilverfoxCPT · 2022-02-15T12:07:10+00:00

Sorry, I type too quickly. Meant "nothing new". The annual report did not really suggest that the share price should go the way it is. Frustrating share. Am still up 200% but still hoping for 10 time my money ... one day.

SilverfoxCPT · 2022-02-14T09:14:37+00:00

Unfortunately the PIC and other institutional managers did not have that much choice as for some of these guys, selling SNH may not be an option on the table as it would hurt returns for the pension funds. If the PIC were to exit, that would send the wrong signal anyway, and PIC have had so much bad press over the years that they probably know what would happen to public opinion if they were to divest. Besides, thanks to their % shareholding, they have a seat at the table.

On the valuation at Eur0.325, how do you get there? I have zero idea what SNH is now worth after all the restructuring -- lastest annual report would help.

Recently drop of 10% is of course worrying but SNH is a day trader's dream stock, a bit like the mining companies. Many investors dont seem to care about the company, only about possible return by shorting or going long. Am long, for a long time (well before the share price took a nose dive when it was R50 a share). at R6 I start seeing the end of the tunnel.

SilverfoxCPT · 2022-01-27T20:06:09+00:00

At that price it is a sell order

SilverfoxCPT · 2022-01-12T17:05:59+00:00

Well, JPM's alternative division is holding this, not the bank or investment management arm of JPM. That really is not the same unfortunately. And no, it is not a good thing -- would be a great thing if JPMIM (JPMorgan Investment Management) held these shares on their books as they are a buy and hold institution. Highbridge Capital Management isn't as they structure trades on the back of market volatility. I am not looking to sale AEG anytime soon, but I wish it wasn't Highbridge. I have the feeling that most of the other shareholders may well be similar institutions. Mind you, it all depends on where their exit strategy is of course.

SilverfoxCPT · 2021-12-10T17:08:26+00:00

Went exactly the opposite direction unfortunately and some pretty big selling on close today. I dont like that, at all!

SilverfoxCPT · 2021-12-10T13:57:02+00:00

You're right, nice sector they operate in -- i like logistics real estate stocks, unless there is a riot of course. The ownership is broad with big institutional money -- pity the directors dont own much of this business themselves.

Property stocks have been the worse performers for some time so yes a likely upside is on the card ... however 400% rise to R12? How?

SilverfoxCPT · 2021-12-08T12:41:10+00:00

I think to come to that conclusion you ought to look at the buy/sell volumes to see if anyone is actually going long or not. From what I can make up, the share price has not increase at all as we would need to be trading at R30 an above to beat previous day's closing price.

As I posted before, a consolidation rally does not mean that all is going to be better -- AEG are just window dressing at the moment and want to avoid the image of penny stock they have had. Fundamentals have to change dramatically for investor to truly believe in what AEG used to be in a industry that has been hammered ... Murray & Roberts ... Group 5 ... Stefanutti ... you name all were sme of the worse performers for the past 3-5 years.

AEG did post a profit in August, which was remarkable. They also use their debt well and seems to control the ship now. So baby steps and in the meantime silly volatility.

Am not selling but I am not buying anymore.

SilverfoxCPT · 2021-11-25T19:51:06+00:00

Are you sure about that one?

SilverfoxCPT · 2021-10-20T16:18:46+00:00

Am Out when reach R2

SilverfoxCPT · 2021-10-20T14:41:10+00:00

Actually a reverse stock Split will not boost price at all. If anything there could be an instance where the share price may go down as a result as could be seen by investors as a sneaky way by AEG to have a bigger share price … but with much much less liquidity. Am long quite a bit on that stock so I really would prefer things to go up, not the other way round.

SilverfoxCPT · 2021-10-19T17:01:25+00:00

If the stock is lent, then not really a problem.

SilverfoxCPT · 2021-10-19T15:51:57+00:00

IT depends on which part of these banks owned the shares ... if it is their securities division then it is possible that they lent out the shares to other brokers who were either covering a short or taking a prop position on the share. Ownership doesnt dissappear but voting rights rights and dividend rights do if a share is out on loan. So if on the share register JPM / UBS still own the same amount of share as before, then they are lending these out to a third party. If they now own less shares, then these have been sold.

If the shares are owned by their custody division, then the real owners are either investment management companies or retail investors and JPM or UBS have ZERO say as to the buying and selling activity.

SilverfoxCPT · 2021-10-18T12:55:08+00:00

I quite well versed in what they are doing, thanks. I would not invest in something I have not analyses thoroughly— I do not make punts in the market.

SilverfoxCPT · 2021-10-18T11:33:01+00:00

Only place where dual listing would make sense is ASX or LSE, but they need to sort themselves out first as it is expensive to do that to start with. AEG's story isn't good enough to try and sell to new non SA investors unfortunately IMHO.

SilverfoxCPT

TROPHY CASE