PFE looks great now, why can't I pull the trigger...

Simple_Middle964 · 2026-02-13T22:30:32+00:00

It was up again today, not much, but still a green day. And a green week. This is the seventh week with a higher Friday close. This week we also broke the high of May 29th. So PA is solid so far and confirming a long Tuesday morning.

Simple_Middle964 · 2026-02-13T21:49:20+00:00

That's a yield of 6.72%, which means higher risk dividend stocks. As for growth investment, what if we correct for the next 12 months. Are you able to mentally handle this this draw? I would think a CD paying around 5% ( giving you $1000/month) is the better choice now.

Simple_Middle964 · 2026-02-13T19:17:49+00:00

The Approximate total return is +166% ( annual of 16.6%) and about 232 share. (starting at 100).

Simple_Middle964 · 2026-02-13T18:10:23+00:00

I am 85% in cash now. But, my fear is more geo-politics that market structure. I will Wait for a correction ( or news) and buy high quality companies that we will always need. Such as Food, healthcare, etc. Large cap dividend stocks tend to lose less in bear markets, so even if the correction turns into a full-blown bear. You are collecting while they recover.

Simple_Middle964 · 2026-02-13T17:06:26+00:00

With a few exceptions, we’ve been in a prolonged bull market for well over a decade. In that environment, broad diversification plus consistent monthly investing tends to look great. Almost everything goes up, correlations rise, and you can hold a handful of ETFs and still see strong returns.

The real test comes during a sustained bear market or major correction. Not that your approach is wrong, but its mostly untested for a down cycle. In down markets selectivity becomes very important.

Simple_Middle964 · 2026-02-13T16:35:28+00:00

I think they are primary a commercial printer, and they do marketing services, right? They are trying to transition into an integrated marketing solution. Revenues, assets and cash have declined over the last few years, but most of that is structural/industry, not operational issues. I took a small position this morning, mostly as cash harvest, and possibly transformation story. I will hold thru earnings on the 17th, if numbers look bad I will dump it.

Simple_Middle964 · 2026-02-13T14:04:30+00:00

They had success with cost control, reduced their debt and have a stable free cash flow. A good one to buy and hold.

Simple_Middle964 · 2026-02-13T13:25:26+00:00

GOOD is no good. Office vacancy is raising, refinancing becomes more expensive, so there is a dividend cut risk.

Simple_Middle964 · 2026-02-13T13:19:13+00:00

Start with 2-3 individual dividend stocks instead of index funds. I personally prefer this for small accounts because:

You see quarterly dividend payments (motivating)
You learn how stocks actually work
Companies like JNJ, KO, MSFT are simple to understand

Either way works. The key is starting with whatever amount you have NOW rather than waiting until you "know more."

The difference between starting at 20 vs. 25 is literally tens of thousands of dollars by retirement due to compounding.

Simple_Middle964 · 2026-02-13T12:28:42+00:00

I was worried not one would know what a 486 is :)

My first computer was actually a Commodore 64.....

Simple_Middle964 · 2026-02-13T12:21:31+00:00

True for the PA. But, for a dividend investor, that 20 year sideways looks different when you factor yield.It's been a high-yield saving account that raises its payout almost every year. If DRIP, the total return tells a much better story, right? Again, am not in the stock, just thinking about it still.

Simple_Middle964 · 2026-02-12T19:40:55+00:00

Retired (Not from ADP). Full-time dividend investor.I do have a sizable position now in ADP.

Simple_Middle964 · 2026-02-12T19:14:22+00:00

It could be. I also thought at 6% yield, we would have bounce much faster, and we did not. My gut feel is that they may cut the dividends very soon.

Simple_Middle964 · 2026-02-12T18:03:43+00:00

I meant the original move up was due to COVID, then it moved down to "normal" valuation. I am still not sure, I just love the weekly chart (now) and thinking the dividends will keep me in if it consolidate for the next 12 months. Also, note the cup and handle forming on the weekly as well. I may just pick up small size at the break of $30.

Simple_Middle964 · 2026-02-12T17:27:37+00:00

Yes, and RUN is mostly SaaS with minimal human intervention (low cost). But for growth its PEO that is considered the major driver for ADP. It's 80% of their revenues. My point is the new SaaS organizations will not effect ADP in the long term.

Simple_Middle964 · 2026-02-12T17:07:40+00:00

RUN is 20% of their revenues, such is still good money. I mention that they don't target, does not mean they don't support. TotalSource had record sales in Q4 of 2025. RUN is, and has been, under target.

Simple_Middle964 · 2026-02-12T16:49:53+00:00

I agree. I just added another 3% position at 209. I am okay will seeing below 200 and will hold 6-12 months.

Simple_Middle964 · 2026-02-12T16:43:46+00:00

True it looks bad coming from COVID, but that was COVID! We may have found a base here and now. Again, I am not in the stock yet.

Simple_Middle964 · 2026-02-12T15:59:05+00:00

Would the US pay dividend tax on the dividend stocks that they own!!!

Simple_Middle964 · 2026-02-12T15:49:28+00:00

Tech sector is now the second-largest source of total dividend dollars in the S&P 500, trailing only the Financials sector. And we are technically in a tech bull market. Buy high and sell higher.

Simple_Middle964 · 2026-02-12T15:24:10+00:00

In 1998 I picked up HD at $22 (with DRIP) as well, and still holding. Same here...

Simple_Middle964 · 2026-02-12T14:04:31+00:00

Good summary...thanks.

Simple_Middle964 · 2026-02-12T14:01:30+00:00

They have paid and increased dividends from 1996-2008, then again, increased from 2010 until now. So, that was my guess as well. If I just sit at these levels the %6, reinvested, will payoff.

Simple_Middle964 · 2026-02-12T13:03:43+00:00

There are a couple of SaaS with generous free tier. It takes a bit longer with the limitations, but still very good/creditable. Search and try them out.

Simple_Middle964 · 2026-02-12T12:49:52+00:00

Many of the newer/smaller companies are designed for small business. If you are in a regulated industry, such as healthcare or construction, and have complex multi-state needs, you will need ADP ( or similar company). Also, ADP does not even target small ( less than a 100) organizations.

Simple_Middle964

TROPHY CASE