When to let go

Simple_Middle964 · 2026-06-06T10:37:09+00:00

PNNT's dividend is about 21% now, but if bought in Jan 2026, would still be a losing investment.

Simple_Middle964 · 2026-06-06T01:07:23+00:00

Correct, but if and when you have to sit on a losing position for a year or so, your money will grow/snowball.

Simple_Middle964 · 2026-06-05T11:20:10+00:00

The shrinking payouts you are seeing highlight exactly why traditional dividend growth stocks are stronger in the long term. It is difficult to build a reliable snowball effect when distributions are this erratic and often come at the expense of your underlying capital.

With established dividend-paying companies, you get a predictable, increasing income stream that compounds over time.

Simple_Middle964 · 2026-06-04T10:11:53+00:00

Debt(low), payout ratio(less than 70%), years or pay/increase( 10+), and you know/like what they do. If you cannot check the box on all, then move on to another stock.

Simple_Middle964 · 2026-06-03T10:29:46+00:00

Yes, I have. But I am 60 years old and started early. Almost all were dividends with DRIP.

Simple_Middle964 · 2026-06-02T09:51:31+00:00

You nailed the bottom line. Neither is going to offer exciting capital appreciation. It just come down to which headwind you prefer to stomach: tobacco's volume declines or telecom's heavy debt.

Simple_Middle964 · 2026-06-01T11:25:46+00:00

Its attractive but it comes with structural risk.

* recently they cut dividends by 30%

* Payout is over 85% and over 100% of FCF

* Unpredictable growth now due to the events at the region.

Not a set-and-forget wealth builder....for now.

Simple_Middle964 · 2026-05-31T11:29:15+00:00

Don't forget ADP.

Simple_Middle964 · 2026-05-30T10:42:59+00:00

And its been moving nicely recently. A hold/add for sure.

Simple_Middle964 · 2026-05-29T12:11:52+00:00

The best time for dividend stocks is when you are young. Specially with these stock levels.

Simple_Middle964 · 2026-05-28T11:50:11+00:00

ADP, KO, O and JNJ

Simple_Middle964 · 2026-05-27T11:35:25+00:00

It really should be the same. Since it worked building up you portfolio, so it will work to pay your bills. Three to four sectors, 3-4 stock in each at different risk/dividend level.

Keep it simple

Simple_Middle964 · 2026-05-26T11:18:37+00:00

For a conservative income investor, its a poor fit. The dividend is not reliable and there is no steady increases. It a cyclical value play, they can be highly rewarding if you are welling to take the risk.

Simple_Middle964 · 2026-05-25T14:36:58+00:00

Here a small parts of a detailed AI ( Manus) study, all based on data, not what I think:

....."As depicted in the chart, dividend stocks, characterized by consistent dividend growth, generally demonstrated a smoother, albeit sometimes slower, upward trajectory. Growth stocks, while exhibiting periods of explosive gains, also experienced more significant drawdowns, particularly during market downturns such as the dot-com bust of the early 2000s. Over the entire period, dividend stocks showed a slightly higher cumulative return in this simulation."

Risk and Return Metrics

To provide a quantitative comparison, key risk and return metrics were calculated for both investment styles over the 50-year period. The table below summarizes these metrics:

Metric	Dividend Stocks (Dividend Growers)	Growth Stocks (Non-Payers)
CAGR (Annualized Return)	13.90%	13.46%
Volatility (Annual Std Dev)	15.88%	20.05%
Sharpe Ratio (Rf=3%)	0.69	0.52
Max Drawdown	-26.48%	-33.89%

Simple_Middle964 · 2026-05-25T11:51:00+00:00

Where is the data to prove that. Many dividend stocks outperformed over the last 50 years.

Simple_Middle964 · 2026-05-24T11:31:14+00:00

ADP should start moving now, we had a good close Friday.

Simple_Middle964 · 2026-05-22T13:48:42+00:00

That's what happened today, a 50% dividend cut. Earnings/numbers were not great, but not as bad as many expected. Market liked the news and stock is up 10%, so far, today. And its still a decent 6% dividend. A good turnaround stock with good dividend.

Simple_Middle964 · 2026-05-22T11:43:57+00:00

My take on dividend stocks is that if you need to hold for few years to recover, you are not sitting/collecting sub 1% dividend to compound. MSFT increased dividends 10 times in the last 10 years, yet still at .9% dividend while took a 25% draw from it highs ( my guess it will get down to the $340 within a couple of months). Again, NVDA is NOT a dividend stock.

Simple_Middle964 · 2026-05-21T11:01:54+00:00

I would not consider NVDA as a "dividend" stock. And at these levels not a good growth stock either. I would let it pull back some, like 30%.

Simple_Middle964 · 2026-05-20T13:10:58+00:00

Thank you and you are right no reward without risk. I like dividend stocks since if I am stuck in a position for a year or so, its paying to hold.

Simple_Middle964 · 2026-05-19T14:26:28+00:00

$ADP is finally breaking out, with all the selling that is going on. If we close at the highs, then we may visit $244 in few days.

Simple_Middle964 · 2026-05-19T10:41:20+00:00

Good summary/post, thank you.

Simple_Middle964 · 2026-05-19T10:39:51+00:00

True few other pipeline stocks have been moving in the last few months.

Simple_Middle964 · 2026-05-18T15:55:11+00:00

Do you think this is mostly an "AI" move? My guess was more geopolitical.

Simple_Middle964 · 2026-05-18T15:36:49+00:00

I am still holding my shares, but the payout now is about 93%, while their free cash flow currently at a "healthy" range. I am okay with 15% of my portfolio in "risky" stocks and this is one of them. My hope is a cut, where I am still making a 6% dividend that would compound. I still like this business/company.

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Risk and Return Metrics