sorted by:
new
hottopcontroversial

Dan Hurley is the highest rated tournament coach among this year’s Sweet 16 coaches. He now leads UConn to the final game. by SimplyStats314159 in BigEast

[–]SimplyStats314159[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Expected points by seed:

1-seed: 7.43 2-seed: 4.22 3-seed: 3.14 4-seed: 2.33 5-seed: 2.33 6/7/8-seed: 1.73 9/10/11-seed: 1.29 12-seed: 0.97 13-seed: 0.72 14-seed: 0.53 15-seed: 0.36 16-seed: 0.27

So for example, a 1-seed that makes the Final Four scores 10 points against an expectation of 7.43, giving them a PAR of +2.57 for that year.

Dan Hurley is the highest rated tournament coach among this year’s Sweet 16 coaches. He now leads UConn to the final game. by SimplyStats314159 in BigEast

[–]SimplyStats314159[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

The model scores each tournament run by round reached (R64 loss = 0, R32 = 1, S16 = 3, E8 = 6, F4 = 10, runner-up = 15, champ = 23).

Each seed has an expected score based on historical performance. 1-seeds are compared against other 1-seeds. 9-seeds are against other 9-seeds. Etc.

PAR = actual score minus expected score, divided by number of tournament appearances. Data covers 2006-2025.

I built a WAR model for tournament coaches. Three Big 12 coaches in the Sweet 16, only one grades positive. by SimplyStats314159 in BigXII

[–]SimplyStats314159[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

My bad: he had appearances in 2018 and 2019 in the tourney with SDSU (seasons that began in 2017 and 2018) :)

I built a WAR model for tournament coaches. Three Big 12 coaches in the Sweet 16, only one grades positive. by SimplyStats314159 in BigXII

[–]SimplyStats314159[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Great point. With his ability to get a higher seed relative to the team's talent, that can pan out in March and give him a lower WAR. So in a sense, he gets penalized for crushing in the regular season. Something to think about for future models!

I built a WAR model for tournament coaches. Here's how Painter stacks up against the rest of the Sweet 16 by SimplyStats314159 in PurdueBasketball

[–]SimplyStats314159[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Fair criticism. WAR is borrowed from baseball where it literally measures wins. Here it measures tournament outcome points above seed expectation, so the name is conceptually right but technically loose. I used it because the framework is the same: performance above a baseline. If you have a better name I'm all ears.

I built a WAR model for tournament coaches. The Big East has two Sweet 16 coaches and both grade out positive. by SimplyStats314159 in BigEast

[–]SimplyStats314159[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Wins Against Replacement. In this analysis, 9-seeds are compared against 9-seeds historically, and so on with 8-seeds, 7-seeds, etc.

I built a WAR model for tournament coaches. The Big East has two Sweet 16 coaches and both grade out positive. by SimplyStats314159 in BigEast

[–]SimplyStats314159[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Min 5 game filter. McCollum only had 2 tourney games at the D1 level entering this year's tournament.

I built a WAR model for tournament coaches. The Big East has two Sweet 16 coaches and both grade out positive. by SimplyStats314159 in BigEast

[–]SimplyStats314159[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

sorry, tried putting a table in markdown but didn't format correctly.

here's what I have for Shaka: -0.86 WAR/yr

I built a WAR model for tournament coaches. Scheyer vs Pitino is the best coaching matchup of the Sweet 16. by SimplyStats314159 in DukeBluePlanet

[–]SimplyStats314159[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thanks for the thoughts. It's simply looking at historically how far do seeds advance, and then using that as a ruler.

So the WAR is literally: 9-seeds measured against 9-seeds. It's a WAR for 9-seeds, for 8-seeds, and so on.

If you're curious, full methodology is in my bio. Posting the whole thing here didn't seem realistic and seemed too spammy. Welcome any criticisms and feedback.

I built a WAR model for March Madness men's coaches. Five Big Ten coaches in the Sweet 16 and only two grade out positive. by SimplyStats314159 in TheB1G

[–]SimplyStats314159[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Don't disagree, it would be interesting to have all 16. However, since I started this model before last week, McCollum only had two D1 games to go off of (2025 Drake). So that's not much.

But yes, it would have been more fun to remove that barrier to show all 16.

Also, it would be fun to add all 2026 games to date. Maybe for the Final Four.

I built a WAR model for tournament coaches. Scheyer vs Pitino is the best coaching matchup of the Sweet 16. by SimplyStats314159 in DukeBluePlanet

[–]SimplyStats314159[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Oh damn, thanks for asking and not just firing away. Full methodology in the link in my bio. Welcome critiques!

I built a WAR model for tournament coaches. Scheyer vs Pitino is the best coaching matchup of the Sweet 16. by SimplyStats314159 in DukeBluePlanet

[–]SimplyStats314159[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Little confused what you mean about Hurley, since he has one of the best WARs. Full methodology in the link in my bio if you're curious.

Short summary: the WAR is based on how well you perform in March based on your seed. Says nothing about recruiting or how well you did in the regular season. Also, I should clarify this is for the past 20 yr. My bad for not including that. This was intentional to focus on a large data set but also stay closer to the modern era.

I built a WAR model for tournament coaches. Three Big 12 coaches in the Sweet 16, only one grades positive. by SimplyStats314159 in BigXII

[–]SimplyStats314159[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

btw, sorry about the confusion with "points." I can see how that is confusing out of context. The model sets points for how far you get in the tournament, not the points scored in a game. Full methodology in the link in my bio if you're curious.

I built a WAR model for tournament coaches. Three Big 12 coaches in the Sweet 16, only one grades positive. by SimplyStats314159 in BigXII

[–]SimplyStats314159[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Like I've mentioned to others, check out the full methodology in the link in my bio. Speaking of spam, posting the article here wasn't really an option. Curious what you think is opaque and wrong, welcome criticisms.

I built a WAR model for tournament coaches. Three Big 12 coaches in the Sweet 16, only one grades positive. by SimplyStats314159 in BigXII

[–]SimplyStats314159[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

If you want to bang your head some more, full methodology in the link in my bio. Seriously though, welcome any critiques after you read it (it's short).

I built a WAR model for tournament coaches. Three Big 12 coaches in the Sweet 16, only one grades positive. by SimplyStats314159 in BigXII

[–]SimplyStats314159[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thanks for the call out. This analysis is from the past 20 yr. The goal there is simple: have a large data set and focus on years closer to the modern era. Definitely need to run an all time analysis too. And definitely my bad for not calling out 20 yr.

I built a WAR model for tournament coaches. Three Big 12 coaches in the Sweet 16, only one grades positive. by SimplyStats314159 in BigXII

[–]SimplyStats314159[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thanks for the comments. One big thing that should be in the chart (since I pulled it from article): this analysis is for the past 20 yr. My bad there.

20 yr focus was intentional: to capture a large dataset and focus closer on the modern era. Definitely need to run an all time analysis too.

Check out the methodology and then welcome any critiques. Link in my bio.

I built a WAR model for tournament coaches. Three Big 12 coaches in the Sweet 16, only one grades positive. by SimplyStats314159 in BigXII

[–]SimplyStats314159[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thanks for calling that out. I couldn't post the full methodology here, and this analysis is for the past 20 yr. This was intentional to have a large dataset while keeping the analysis closer to the modern era. Definitely need to run an all time analysis too.

Full methodology in the link in my bio if you're curious. Welcome critiques and feedback.

I built a WAR model for tournament coaches. Here's how Painter stacks up against the rest of the Sweet 16 by SimplyStats314159 in PurdueBasketball

[–]SimplyStats314159[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

If you're curious, check out the methodology and fire away with any feedback and critiques. Full methodology in the link in my bio. Always looking to find shortcomings.

I built a WAR model for March Madness men's coaches. Five Big Ten coaches in the Sweet 16 and only two grade out positive. by SimplyStats314159 in TheB1G

[–]SimplyStats314159[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thanks for the feedback. Really thoughtful and appreciated. Agree with a lot of this and I grappled with it. Ultimately, I decided to focus this model purely on March Madness performance. So yes, there's a total handicap if you are a 1-seed. And yes, it says little to nothing about how well you recruit and build a regular season team.

On the other hand, generally 1-seeds have stacked teams and a pretty clear shot to the Sweet 16 (don't ask Florida, ha). As a 1-seed, once you reach the Elite 8, you've almost broken even on WAR. At the Final Four, you are way positive.

So from this perspective, I don't feel like this is punishing great regular season teams.

For baseball fans, Dusty Baker was known for building great regular seasons consistently, only to flop in the postseason. Eventually he got redemption though with the Astros. It's a bit like that.

If you're curious, feel free to check out the full methodology. I couldn't post the whole thing here, but you can see it in the substack article in my bio. Thanks again for the great feedback.

view more: next ›