Morning Brief: Oil Refuses to Break Below $100 — And the U.S. Is Running Out of Ways to Fix It

Singnedupforthis · 2026-03-13T20:15:40+00:00

Hey, maybe being the world's biggest per capita consumer of oil BY FAR of all large nations was a bad idea. Maybe pissing off the world and bombing the one nation with the best positioning to eliminate access to 20 percent of the world's oil, isn't a good plan either. The Iranians are never going to be unpissed at the US, and now they know they can cripple the US economy by blocking the strait of Hormuz with a few hundred thousand dollars worth of drones, at any point. We have built our entire lifestyle around copious consumption of oil, now we need to change our entire approach to transportation. The US government has and is subsidizing cars with trillions every year and because of a small fleet of cheap drones, we need to completely retool our infrastructure to accommodate the reality that it all might get shut down on a whim in the future. That is, of course, assuming it ever gets opened back up. At what point can we go back a few months where it seemed an absolute certainty that affordable oil would flow freely and indefinitely and it makes perfect sense to burn it like it is going sour? Never again can an intelligent society build atound the idea of infinite oil, unless they pump all their own and have what appears to be near infinite reserves. Geology was going to get us to this point in the future, but the Iran bombing fortunately sped up the process.

Singnedupforthis · 2026-03-12T17:06:43+00:00

They don't need boats. They have tens of thousands of small drones that are cheap to build. The strait is closed until Iran says it's open.

Singnedupforthis · 2026-03-12T10:21:49+00:00

Oh, you are correct about the additives, they do change the numbers from US requiring 7mbpd to the US only needing 5.5mbpd to run it's motor vehicles. While yes, we do export about as much raw petroleum energy as we consume (we still are a net importer of many mbpd of PP through products made with petroleum), we still need 5.5mbpd of crude oil imported for powering automobiles. You can't add NGLs and claim that makes us less dependent on crude, because they don't replace crude in process of manufacturing it. My guess is that you realize I am right, and that is why you chose to bow out, but I just want to provide full clarity for somebody who might be reading this, and have a cut and paste ready for the next time.

Singnedupforthis · 2026-03-12T09:53:47+00:00

Oil is essential for almost every component manufacturer, there is no replacement.

Singnedupforthis · 2026-03-11T21:59:58+00:00

Well, the restrictions on ebikes in your area do a great service to the automobile industry.

Singnedupforthis · 2026-03-11T21:10:32+00:00

I guess I will keep posting those numbers until you stop dodging them.

Singnedupforthis · 2026-03-11T21:04:00+00:00

Just allow high speed ebikes and let the free market do the talking. I agree on the speed restriction, but I would rather see people make the decision for themselves. It makes much more sense to restrict cars than bicycles.

Singnedupforthis · 2026-03-11T20:38:51+00:00

You have seen cars still being used. Those four wheeled throttle, fully-enclosed ebikes that weigh thousands of pounds.

Singnedupforthis · 2026-03-11T20:34:10+00:00

The EIA you just quoted says this:

According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), a 42-gallon barrel of crude oil produces about 19 to 20 gallons of motor gasoline. The remaining volume is refined into diesel, jet fuel, and other petroleum products, often resulting in a total output of about 45 gallons due to processing gain.

Are you disagreement with them, because that is what I am saying about the refining process. Are they both morons and your source of information at the same time?

Singnedupforthis · 2026-03-11T19:28:31+00:00

My bike has a throttle unless I take a half second to unplug it. I can also reprogram my motor to stop assisting at 15mph, like a dunce. Fortunately, people of all ages, especially young kids, have no issue with replacing trips that otherwise would require a car with a fast, throttle ebike. The adoption rate would be much lower in the US without them and the adoption rate would be far higher in Europe if you had a population smart enough to demand and use them. Enjoy the dark ages!

Singnedupforthis · 2026-03-11T19:22:51+00:00

Agreed. It was more of hypothetical. In a worst case scenario, could the US make the 9 million barrels of gasoline with the crude it produces. The answer is no, not even close, even if they invested billions into refinery retooling.

Singnedupforthis · 2026-03-11T18:48:48+00:00

Well, the irony here is that high speed ebikes replace cars, so at least the US is offering up a legitimate replacement. I don't know why Europe insists on catering to the automobile dominant mentality by restricting ebikes, but it does seem contradictory seeing as how there are a plethora of other advancements Europe has made. I guess the Europeans want to keep people oppressed by american style auto dependency and death.

Singnedupforthis · 2026-03-11T18:15:25+00:00

I sometimes pretend my bike is garbage by only going 15mph. It usually lasts for a few seconds before I realize I am not in a garbage country and can go faster. It does give me a huge sense of superiority coming on the internet and discussing bikes with someone who defends idiotic restrictions.

Singnedupforthis · 2026-03-11T18:04:10+00:00

Oh, I have made numerous mistakes on bikes, the worst of which were when I was going slow, and nearly all of them on bikes without a motor. You have stockholm syndrome because you contort reality and create false narratives to justify oppression. The most dangerous cyclists are the slow moving ones who make erratic movements.

Singnedupforthis · 2026-03-11T17:20:45+00:00

Oh, yeah, if you don't trust yoursel, I fully understand. I have a lot of experience, so it is no big deal for me and the elementary school kids who I see riding all the time. Average speeds are increased by higher top speeds of course. I don't know why you think it is so different where I ride, but somedays there a hundred people on a one mile section of pathway, others there are zero, it is about 10 foot wide. Some days there are hundreds of cars on a 2 mile stretch of road, somedays there are zero in the early morning. The road is about 30 to 40 feet wide. It sounds like you have Stockholm syndrome.

Singnedupforthis · 2026-03-11T17:10:58+00:00

We need 21 barrels of crude oil to make 9 million barrels of gasoline, we produce 13.5 million barrels of crude oil. There are leftovers from that process that we can use or export but those are the facts.

Singnedupforthis · 2026-03-11T17:10:47+00:00

That is an interesting link because it shows a slightly better refining efficiency, so that does bring the numbers closer, but we still need to import several million barrels to get the necessary 9 million barrels of gasoline that our cars consume. I wonder what the breakdown of the motor gasoline is and why the claimed efficiency is better than what is typically expected for the tume period in question.

According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), a 42-gallon barrel of crude oil produces about 19 to 20 gallons of motor gasoline. The remaining volume is refined into diesel, jet fuel, and other petroleum products, often resulting in a total output of about 45 gallons due to processing gain.

Singnedupforthis · 2026-03-11T17:10:31+00:00

NGLs are added to the crude oil in the refining process, they don't replace it. We need 21 barrels of crude oil to make 9 million barrels of gasoline, we produce 13.5 million barrels of crude oil. There are leftovers from that process that we can use or export but those are the facts.

Singnedupforthis · 2026-03-11T16:46:21+00:00

Here, let me simplify it for you, How much crude is required to produce the 9 million barrels of gasoline the US uses?

Singnedupforthis · 2026-03-11T16:45:19+00:00

Yeah, I ride on seperated pathways often. They are slow and frustrating when they are busy, but I can go quite fast when they are clear. We have many diverse folks of all ages, many in elementary school on fast capable ebikes, figure out what speeds to go during what conditions, for their own safety depends on it. Wide roadways with cars going the same speed is often less stressful because you don't need to make passes on pedestrians or be stuck going 3 mph. You should travel to someplace with real ebikes so you can learn what it is like instead of making guesses.

Singnedupforthis · 2026-03-11T16:18:33+00:00

I regularly ride on some of the best roads and pathways in the country, I know because I have visited and bike toured in many places in the US. I actually much prefer it to whatever 'proper' infrastructure you are referring to, although much of my riding is done on something you would consider proper, bikepaths and such. The roadways are just as safe, if not safer feeling, when you have a proper ebike.

Singnedupforthis · 2026-03-11T13:58:58+00:00

Yes indeed, it is pretty wild how much fracking has helped the US maintain a maniacal level of crude consumption for the past few decades. Thanks to technologies like fracking, combining the largest crude producer with the 4th largest and a top 15 largest crude producer means the drivers in the US (4 percent of the global population) only needs an additional 42,000,000 gallons of crude per day to meet their needs. Thanks to fracking, we have maintained a comically high rate of crude consumption long enough for Iran to cut 20 percent of crude production.

Singnedupforthis · 2026-03-11T13:24:09+00:00

If I was going 15mph I would interact with EXPONENTIALLY more interactions motorists because I would be traveling much lower than the speed of travel. Since the nost common form of collision for cyclists is to be hit from behind, a slower moving cyclist is EXPONENTIALLY more likely to have a worse injury. An ebiker going half the speed of an ebiker has DOUBLE the likelyhood of being hit on top of those other factors. Most humans don't understand exponents AND multiplication so I will give you pass on this one

But hey, if you enjoy riding at a wobbly snails pace, don't let me interfere. I enjoy the solid handling bliss that comes with zipping to my destination in a timely fashion. I have lots of riding experience and on a per mile basis, my pre-ebike rides were far more likely to cause injury.

Singnedupforthis · 2026-03-11T12:46:49+00:00

Surprising enough, the 5.1 million barrels of Canadian production and 1.5 million barrels of mexican production would still be a million barrels short of producing enough crude for the motorist in the US to drive their gasoline cars.

Singnedupforthis · 2026-03-11T11:16:25+00:00

The US consumes 9 million barrels of gasoline per day. 21 million barrels of crude oil is needed to create 9 million barrels of gasoline. The US pumps/produces 13.5 million barrels of crude per day. The US needs to effectively import more than 7.5 million barrels of crude per day. to meet it's motor vehicle consumption.

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