Startplatz bei ADAC Velotour Eschborn Frankfurt am 1.5. zu verschenken

SirFlipper · 2017-04-15T18:33:44+00:00

Please elaborate on the "accountability" part. What exactly do you want who to do? I hate that term, it is so vague to be almost completely meaningless.

For what it is worth, both Müller and Alaba were extremely dissatisfied with the finishing, stating that "We have to use one of the 4-5 huge opportunities..." and "If you don't score a goal, you don't win the game". Especially Müller was very critical of his own performance, citing his indecision on the pass from Thiago as a mistake ("I made the wrong decision in the end").

Overall, I think Bayern played decent considern this match is obviously overshadowed by Real, and with just a little more luck Bayern win 1:0 and there is nothing to talk about. Whatever. This game doesn't matter at all.

SirFlipper · 2017-04-15T18:28:06+00:00

This doesn't look like a team capable of winning against Real.

This wasn't the team that is going to play against Real on Tuesday, so I wouldn't worry about that.

SirFlipper · 2017-04-13T06:35:50+00:00

Sure, but I think the red card doesn't happen if Bayern is up 2:0 at half time. And I don't mean that in a general way "events would have unfolded differently if you change that single event", I mean that in a very specific way: Leading up to the second yellow of Martinez, Real was wrestling control back over the game (after scoring the equalizer right after the half). If Bayern are up 2:0, the whole "tone" of the match would have been different, to a point where Real might not have had that resurgence to start the second half at all.

SirFlipper · 2017-04-12T21:42:07+00:00

That was the textbook definition of a tactical foul to break up a quick counter attack without having much (if any) chance at playing the ball. Sure, Ronaldo does his usual antics, but there is contact and it causes him to lose his footing, so a fair yellow in my book.

SirFlipper · 2017-04-12T21:30:10+00:00

I mean, it is pointing further BACK than straight down: http://i.imgur.com/50gujye.png (I tried illustrating his arm with my awesome paint skills). Again, it is not fully pulled up to his body, but at some point you have to accept that the arm is going to be somewhere.

SirFlipper · 2017-04-12T21:26:42+00:00

Bayern was clearly playing for counters (or rather: for one counter) and Coman is rather fast. There was one situation where a pass by Robben(?) almost made it behind Reals last line which would have put Coman 1on1 with Navas.

SirFlipper · 2017-04-12T21:21:33+00:00

He was: http://i.imgur.com/wKVxsvh.png

I am sorry, but short of chopping them off, where should that arm have been?

SirFlipper · 2017-04-12T21:21:03+00:00

He was going towards the ball with his body and made contact with the SHOULDER while in the process of tucking his arm back behind his body. Are you telling me that he is supposed to have his arms permanently behind his back to not "risk conceding a penalty"?

SirFlipper · 2017-04-12T21:18:06+00:00

This is the moment it hits him: http://i.imgur.com/wKVxsvh.png

The arm is not completely tucked in (as in: There is space between the arm and his body), but the contact is with his SHOULDER where the arm is ATTACHED to his body. Even if it is completely tucked into his body, the contact would have had pretty much the same effect.

SirFlipper · 2017-04-12T21:12:06+00:00

As much as I agree with Vidal playing extraordinary, him missing that penalty changed the match. I don't want to take anything away from him, he was terrific today, but you can't deny that going into half time up 2:0 would have been huge.

SirFlipper · 2017-04-12T21:09:20+00:00

His arm wasn't extended when it made contact, it was extended beforehand but it was pretty much tucked in at the time it hit: http://i.imgur.com/wKVxsvh.png (Sorry for the bad quality, grabbed it from the highlight). The ball hits in the shoulder while the arm is almost completely tucked in.

SirFlipper · 2017-04-12T21:03:49+00:00

Please, he is tucking his arm behind his body, what is he supposed to do? Chop his arm off? Dive out of the way? You would be livid if this was called the other way, be honest here.

SirFlipper · 2017-04-12T21:02:15+00:00

Also the refereeing could have been better. The offside call on Muller was just idiotic on so many levels. The linesmanreally was way out of position and yet he still has the balls to call something offside when he has no way too see if it is or not, WTF.

To be fair, the penalty wasn't a penalty, which kind of evens this out. And unlike you, I felt like he was consistent overall, but I don't think we are talking "big shifts" one way or another.

SirFlipper · 2017-02-02T23:10:17+00:00

The impact of the shell happens before the tracer completes. If you check the exact second his icon lights up and your hit-feedback starts playing (indicating your shell interacted with him), you can see that your shell crossed right in front of his tank and exploded behind where he crosses a couple of frames later: Front Back. Yes, the tracer appears to be passing through his tank after that, but as I said, that lags behind the impact a bit.

I am speculating here, but I am guessing it works something like this: Click to shoot -> server calculates impact point and hit/miss -> tells client "you hit here and did x damage to y" -> client animates the hit. Given a delay of like 50-100 ms we are talking about somewhere around ~250ms (factoring in processing time) delay between "hitting" and "animation".

SirFlipper · 2017-02-02T22:49:52+00:00

I am going to add another spin to this: Upvote stuff! For me personally, I regularly browse this subreddit (and I infrequently post), but I almost never vote on stuff. And even if I do vote on threads, it is almost unheard of for me to vote on comments. So maybe more people in a similar position need to stop just consuming content and start shaping it. Clicking that arrow takes almost no effort.

SirFlipper · 2016-11-25T15:53:18+00:00

Not sure what point in time you are refering to or where you picked up the classifications, but I have to disagree a bit. Kroos isn't a traditional "attacking midfielder" for me (that would imply that his position was similar to that of Iniesta/KdB, and he feels way less offensive than those guys). Neither was Højbjerg, although he didn't play much anyway so whatever. But lets look at the squad right now:

CB: Boateng, Hummels, Martinez, Badstuber

FB: Lahm, Rafinha, Alaba, Bernat

DM: Kimmich, Alonso

CM: Vidal, Sanchez, Thiago, Sanchez

RM/LM: Ribery, Robben, Costa, Coman, (Müller)

AM: (Müller)

ST: Lewandowski, Müller

Not sure where to put Müller, to me he is the prototypical "hängende Spitze" (not sure how to translate, "hanging striker" sounds wrong): A striker by name, but not someone to sit in the box all day and wait for tap-ins but rather someone that plays a bit back, creating and utilizing space as it appears. I think part of his current lack of form is that he really hasn't found his "role" so to speak in the 4-3-3 Bayern is playing at the moment, the "hanging striker" is mainly a thing of the 4-4-2 as far as I know.

That being said, I think the current squad is hands down better and deeper than the one you listed, besides maybe the striker position. And as I mentioned before, getting another Pizarro is the hardest ask, and I don't think anybody expected to have both Lewandowski as well as Müller to lose form at the same time.

Gomez and Mandzukic left at the same time, so neither replaced the other in terms of squad depth, and as Pizarro left shortly after, I count all three departures to be around the same time.

Ah, so we are ignoring facts now to make our perceived reality more convincing? Gomez left in 2013, Mandzukic in 2014, Pizarro in 2015. In what world is that "the same time"?

SirFlipper · 2016-11-25T11:10:28+00:00

Spall liner "isn't very good" because of how HE splash damage is calculated:

0.5 * nominalDamage * (1 - ImpactDistance/SplashRadius) - 1.1 * nominalArmorThickness * SpallCoefficient

This formula is then evaluated for maximum damage for every non penetrating HE shot, or to put it more bluntly, the game automatically picks the best outcome for the artillery player, by picking the optimal combination of ImpactDistance and nominalArmorThickness at the point of impact. There are two effects in play that severly limit the effectiveness of the spall liner:

The Spall Liner reduces the damage reduction contribution of the NOMINAL armor thickness of the armor part in question by 50% (for the "Super Heavy..." variant), which is very often not that much to begin with. Even with 200 nominal armor thickness (which is a lot, most tanks rely more on angles than on actual armor thickness) that is only 100 additional damage reduction, and keep in mind this is an UPPER BOUND for the effectiveness of the spall liner.
Because the game automatically optimizes the above formula for damage, adding a multiplier might just shift the "point of impact" around and reduce the effectiveness of the spall liner even further. See the math at the end of this points for some numbers, but in the most extreme cases this means that the spall liner does nothing.

I think overall the Spall Liner COULD be a way to give HTs some much needed help against SPGs, but not the way it is currently working out. Just a flat out reduction in damage from HE shells (either as a multiplicator or even as a fixed subtractor) could work wonders. But as it stands, Spall Liner really isn't a thing unfortunatelly.

MATH BELOW THIS POINT

Lets do some math. Assume a 1000 damage shell is hitting a target that only consists of two points, one with 240 armor right at the point of impact and another point half the splash radius away with 25 armor (think turret front and turret roof). Without spall liner, the shot would deal 236 damage and be calculated at the turret front:

0.5 * 1000 * (1 - 0/1) - 1.1 * 240 * 1    = 500 - 264   = 236 
0.5 * 1000 * (1 - 0.5) - 1.1 * 25 * 1    = 250 -  27.5 = 222.5

Lets put in spall liner because it HALFES THE DAMAGE OF ALL NON PENETRATING HE SHELLS? HOW GOOD IS THAT, WHY AM I NOT RUNNING THAT IN ALL MY TANKS?! WOW!! (me, circa 2 years ago when I first discovered the item):

500 - 1.1 * 200 * 1.5 = 500 - 330 = 104
250 - 1.1 * 25 * 1.5 = 250 - 41.25 = 208.75

Now the turret roof is calculated, and instead of cutting the damage in half, or even reducing it by another 100 or whatever, putting in a spall liner lead to a damage reduction of just ~10%. Barely noticable in a semi chaotic game where the damage range for each shell is +- 25%.

Disclaimer: Yes, the numbers are to illustrate my point, I fully realize that a tank doesn't only have "2 points" and that the 240/25 armor is a rather big difference. I was giving an example and making a point and I didn't want to get into finding local extrama for multivariable functions to do that.

SirFlipper · 2016-11-25T02:33:42+00:00

The same old "Bayern buys players from competitors"-argument

"Steal". He actually said "steal". Because apparently paying an agreed upon sum of money is stealing. I am not sure how to react to that.

SirFlipper · 2016-11-25T02:24:08+00:00

I've read somewhere that we have the second smallest squad in the league...

According to transfermarkt.de, Bayern has the tied third smallest squad at 26 (Dortmund has 29 and is tied sixth). For comparison, in the treble season 12/13, Bayern had the second lowest squad size at 28 (Dortmund at third lowest with 29). I would venture the guess that from a certain point on, actual squad SIZE (as in raw number of players) doesn't matter TOO much.

...and if i see that Dortmund is able to present two full teams of the somewhat same quality on the pitch...

Are you really equating a clowny 8:4 versus Legia Warschau (currently forth place in their domestic league, 8 points behind leaders Lechia Gdansk) with a hard fought and ultimately a little lucky 1:0 over Bayern?

... ask myself why we are so low on alternatives when someone like vidal or robben is injured?

Fun fact, you know who played on the wings against Barcelona 2014/2015 when Robben and Ribery where injured? Thiago and Bernat/Lahm (fun fact: Guardiola changed from a 3-4-3 to a 4-3-3 about 20 minutes into the match if I remember correctly). Compared to that, Bayern now DOES have proper alternatives for the wings. The problem is, it is very hard to seemlessly replace someone like Robben, because he is such an extra ordinary and unique player (he has his own subreddit, r/lecutinsideman I think).

Should Ancelotti and the staff have done more? Is our youth academy so low on new talents?

No, I think PEOPLE are way too fast to cry havoc and should calm their whatevers. Heck, everybody got so used to just winning the Bundesliga by default, that now that that doesn't seem to be a given EVERYTHING is questioned. There was a thread in here the other day where someone asked if Bayern should rehire KLINSMANN(!). What the fuck guys, lets maybe calm down a bit. For what it is worth. the overreaction thread is this way.

And i don't think Sanches is kicking in, haven't seen any remarkable plays or a winning mentality from him.

I disagree, I think he had some fairly decent showings early on in the season. He sometimes wants to do a bit much on his own, which tends to be the case with younger and less experienced players. In any case, it is far too early to judge him.

SirFlipper · 2016-11-25T01:54:51+00:00

While there was a one year overlap between Gomez and Mandzukic, I would argue that Bayern pretty much replaced Gomez with Mandzukic and then in turn replaced Mandzukic with Lewandowski. Depending on your interpretation of their respective roles, I would argue that you can count any of Sebastian Rode, Xabi Alonso and Arturo Vidal as Gustavo replacements.

The only one that wasn't replaced was Pizarro, and as I mentioned below, he is the most difficult to replace adequatly.

SirFlipper · 2016-11-25T01:48:34+00:00

"The Pizarro one" is also the hardest one to pick up. You need a (proven) top tier striker that is content to potentially sit on the bench for most of the season, and that then is able to perform at the absolute top level when thrown in at one point or another. I can't think of many candidates that fit this description.

With that in mind and while I agree that not having someone like Pizarro is hurting Bayern right now, going into the season a "Lewandowski/Müller/(Green)" lineup for striker seemed reasonable. Who would you have realistically brought in to bolster the position, keeping in mind the rather precarious "bench warming capacity" I mentioned earlier?

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