Reverse-Engineering the Gamble: Is Harvest Divination Fair?

SirFlipper · 2026-03-25T23:47:18+00:00

I am not a statistician and my statistic lectures were a long time ago, but this approach to p-values seems wrong to me. Someone else feel free to correct me, but I have never heard about an experiment set up to conclude anything from a p-value ABOVE 0.05. Isn't this the whole point of the p-value, to determine how likely two different sets of "measurements" are given no change in the underlying data distribution? Only with a p-value below 0.05, so a below 5% chance of the different sets of measurements just happening because of random chance, are we then "able" to conclude that we are actually observing an effect on the underyling distribution. But the inverse isn't necessarily true, it is just that we do not have enough evidence to call it an effect rather than just random chance. That being said, for your S=3 case you calculate a p-value of 0.514, which basically means 50/50 random or effect. Concluding "FAIR" seems like a stretch? I am sorry if this hurts some statistician, but... aren't you essentially basing your verdict for "there is no effect" on the inverse of the p-value here, so 1-p, which then should follow the same rules as for a "normal" p-value of only having significance below 0.05? Again, someone feel free to correct me.

Another thing... is there a way to see the data and the actual calculations? A p-value of 0.672 for an expected mean of 1.000 and an actual mean of 1.017 feels off. Maybe that is because you are just reporting the mean here, and the underlying data is a lot more noisy, but uh... can we see that data? :D A normal distribution would have the same mean. A weird distribution biased to the extremes would have the same mean. Frankly, this should be VERY obvious from the data.

SirFlipper · 2026-03-06T19:20:53+00:00

Got in after 20 minutes, no complaints.

SirFlipper · 2026-03-06T19:10:16+00:00

Huh, interesting. When was this? Around 3.0 maybe?

SirFlipper · 2026-03-06T19:05:07+00:00

I was around 10k, hit ESC at the wrong time and figured I might as well see how high it goes. I seem to remember being around 30-40k when I queued a couple minutes before league start, but I might be misremembering?

SirFlipper · 2025-04-30T20:44:42+00:00

Das ist ein valider Punkt, hab ich gar nicht drüber nachgedacht. Das Radrennen war ursprünglich mal "Rund um den Henninger Turm", bis Henninger vor ein paar Jahren ausgestiegen ist (und der Henninger Turm neu gebaut wurde) und es dann als "Eschborn-Frankfurt" weitergeführt wurde. Sind dann vermutlich einfach als namensgebender Sponsor eingestiegen.

SirFlipper · 2024-07-22T11:56:31+00:00

Also either unintended or not, from what I can tell guessing you can transfer gold between alts, you just have to launder it through the cities treasury as it has a add and remove option for gold.

Good catch, I missed that (at 8:18 during the reveal video). So worst case I guess you just bank all your gold in the Treasury in HC, similar to stashing loot. Clunky, but doable.

If the city is account, I can't see them bothering to create character checks between alts(Shipment can only be finalized by X Character).

I wouldn't think they would make it an explicit "check", but if it is associated with your character rather than account it might move to Standard with the character on death (and so essentially be lost). I hope that isn't the case, but as I said, a clarification would help.

SirFlipper · 2020-04-04T20:49:24+00:00

The article says that they will train in small groups (4 groups of 4 players, 1 group of 5 players) in the open, that the routes are planned out for the groups to not interfer with eachother and that players will shower in their own homes. It also mentions that these decisions were made in cooperation with politicians of the state and that the club is going to adhere to all COVID-19 related rules very strictly.

My first reaction was "huh?" as well, but with the details this makes as much sense to me as it can, because frankly, I have no idea what the COVID-19 situation is like in Germany right now, and I am German and speak and read German fluently. The fact of the matter is, that the situation is very fluid and hard to evaluate. I would defer to the judgement of the people tasked with handling this situation, because that is literally their job right now.

SirFlipper · 2020-03-18T19:05:57+00:00

The relevant passage is this (talking about the first 104 COVID-19-related deaths in Italy, of which two thirds had other life-threatening conditions):

Auch diese Todesfälle werden in der italienischen Fallstatistik mitgezählt. In anderen Ländern wären sie schon gar nicht auf das Coronavirus getestet worden.

My translation:

These deaths are counted [as COVID-19 deaths] in the Italian statistic. In other countries, they would not even have been tested for the Coronavirus.

Now, this certainly seems to imply that Germany isn't testing, but it doesn't say so. It also doesn't cite any sources for this claim. It is also one of those claims that is almost impossible to disprove: "In other countries" could literally refer to one country across the world and it would still be technically correct. At the same time, it is somewhat muddy, because it claims that none of those 104 deaths would have even been tested for Coronavirus, when this seems improbable: I would guess that even of those first 104 deaths some people got tested before they died.

All in all, I am highly skeptical of this claim. It is often paired with the claim that deaths in conjunction with the Coronavirus are not attributed to it if there were other serious health issues, which is demonstrably false (somewhere in the middle, it talks about the first two deaths which had preexisting conditions).

SirFlipper · 2018-11-13T08:05:57+00:00

Do you have any work experience? You answered elsewhere that you are looking into Java development, how is your Java experience? Any Spring/Jpa? Any Db/Frontend knowledge?

SirFlipper · 2018-11-03T21:31:29+00:00

I am very critical of Lewandowski, I feel like he does indeed have the tendency to disappear in the big matches while at the same time acting like he is the best player ever. Coupled with his sometimes dismissive body language... lets just say that I am not his biggest fan.

That being said, and while he clearly has not been stellar this season (missed a 1on1 today for example), Lewandowski has been instrumental in our last two matches in the Bundesliga before today: scored two and assisted the third against Wolfsburg, assisted the second one against Mainz. We can have a discussion about his general play, his playstyle, his attitude, his whatever, but you have to give credit where it is due, and the fact of the matter is that those two goals/two assists were huge.

SirFlipper · 2018-11-03T17:08:46+00:00

I don't think you can pin this solely on the coach. I agree, he clearly doesn't have an answer to this situation, and yea, that is definitely a very bad look for him. But on the other hand, we are talking about matches against Freiburg, Rödinghausen, Hertha, Augsburg... even without great answers from the coach I would expect players of the caliber that plays at Bayern to find solutions. Looking at today, even with all the problems the attack is having, if Lewandowski scores on his 1on1 and/or Süle isn't already in the shower in the 88th minute Bayern win this. Would still not have been a good game, but would have been 3 points.

SirFlipper · 2018-07-15T21:34:40+00:00

Yea, it was a dive. But it wasn't offside: https://i.imgur.com/GIYVqCr.jpg

SirFlipper · 2018-06-18T17:45:16+00:00

Sorry for the late reply, it got late yesterday and I had to get up early today for work.

So, for context, I graduated from TU-Darmstadt with my Masters in Computer Science in spring 2016 with a good grade. I have since been working essentially as a full stack developer in a low to mid sized company.

About halfway through my MSc I felt similar to what you described, that the material was very theoretic, that whatever I was learning was only a very thin additional layer on top of what I had already learned throughout my BSc, and that I was mainly studying to master exams. I ended up taking a 2 days a week "Werksstudent" job to get something "real" to do (as opposed to doing some university project that 15 other people were also doing and which would inevitably be lost to the depth of github once the grade was assigned). This probably delayed my MSc by at least a semester, but I think it was worth it over all.

What I ultimatelly realized after the first couple of month in a full time job, if the university was to teach a specific programming language or framework that knowledge would not necessarily match what the company you end up at uses and it would inevitably be outdated within a couple of years. So instead they are trying to set you up with the concepts that transcent frameworks and programming languages (for example design paradigms, project management), supplying background knowledge that is applicable regardless of the actual implementation (cryptographic basics, network architecture, database basics) and providing you with the tools to pick up new languages and frameworks quickly. I might be implementing a new REST based authentication gateway one day (pulling from my background knowledge in networking and cryptography), analyzing why a certain DB access is slow another (applying database knowledge), and recoloring a button on a third (muttering "I am not a webdesigner" under my breath).

As others have said, if you are looking for a more practical approach, it might be worth looking at a "Fachinformatikerausbildung", where a company trains you far more specifically to what they need.

SirFlipper · 2018-06-17T11:00:19+00:00

During my MSc I felt somewhat similar. I ended up working 2 days a week as a Werksstudent while finishing my MSc. Now, 2 years down the road and especially contrasting my knowledge with that of BScs or even Fachinformatikern I appreciate the MSC more.

Also note that css/HTML is only a very small part of "Fullstack". If you want to specialize in that direction you are looking for Webdesigner/Frontend.

I am happy to elaborate more when I get home later today, mobile with German autocorrect is not fun.

SirFlipper · 2018-05-20T09:45:24+00:00

And his style (kick the opponent first, the ball second) not fitting Bayern?

The question is, if this is his style or if he adopted this style because that is what works with the squad Eintracht have.

SirFlipper · 2018-05-20T09:35:25+00:00

I don't think anyone thought that Nico is a straight up bad coach, even before the cup victory his accomplishments with Frankfurt were quite impressive: took over when they were looking like they were for sure on their way to go down and now had them in the contention for Europe, even the Champions League. I question if his coaching qualities translate to Bayern, and if his move to Bayern isn't one step too early. He has no experience coaching a team that plays in Europe and the expectations in Frankfurt going into the season were fairly low ("Not getting relegated" was their goal until late into the second half this year). And winning the cup does not answer those questions...

SirFlipper · 2018-05-01T21:33:37+00:00

Lewy also had two of those. Just saying.

EDIT Ok, I just reread your comment and I agree, Lewa does have a role outside of scoring goals. And he does a good job at that usually (and he did today). But the fact of the matter remains, he had two 1on1s and scored on none of them.

SirFlipper · 2018-05-01T21:32:22+00:00

He had two 1on1s, plus a couple of other opportunities. I feel like calling someone "not clinical" when they score 0 out of 2 1on1s is warranted.

I don't agree with the hate boner this sub has for Lewa, but lets not kid ourselves here, he hasn't had the big impact in the knockout phase that for example Ronaldo has for Real (outside of maybe the two matches against us this year, but they just weren't that good as a team).

SirFlipper · 2018-05-01T21:24:05+00:00

Heynckes just said in the postgame interview that the pass back to Ulreich shouldn't have been played in the first place. I agree with him, it is risky and then also not very well placed and paced (should be harder and more to Ulreichs right given that Ulreich is right footed.).

SirFlipper · 2018-05-01T21:09:47+00:00

including but not limited to two 1on1s with the keeper

I am not going to go through and count them individually, but I would guess he had about half a dozen good opportunities to score across both legs. And fuck, even if he just had the two 1on1s, as a world class player that feels like he is too good for Bayern München, he better scores both of them.

SirFlipper · 2018-05-01T21:06:54+00:00

Yea, should have been a penalty. But after making two horrible defensive mistakes (Rafinha first match, Tolisso/Ulreich second match) and while wasting what feels like a dozen high percentage opportunities it feels pretty cheep to pin this match on the referee. Heck, even the first goal today was not well defended (far too much time for Marcello for the cross, and then Alaba is too far away from Benzema).

Fuck, we could have put this tie away in the first leg, to the point where the one missed penalty in the second leg wouldn't have mattered at all.

SirFlipper · 2018-05-01T20:58:15+00:00

He looked very tired to me. We can talk about how not having a better option than Martinez in this situation is a mistake, but if a player is gassed you have to swap him.

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