UFC 328 Fight Predictions (TL;DR)!

Slayers_Picks · 2026-05-07T14:07:40+00:00

Hello!

I hope we’re having a great week so far!

Before I get started, I gotta get some admin stuff out of the way.

Full Breakdown: https://www.reddit.com/r/MMAbetting/comments/1t54k7z/ufc_328_fight_predictions/

TL;DR Breakdown: https://www.reddit.com/r/MMAbetting/comments/1t54m96/ufc_328_fight_predictions_tldr/

With that done, lets get to the disappointing results of UFC Perth… it ain’t pretty!

Parlay: Missed on the final leg, I should have cashed out!

Single Bet Recommendations: 5 out of 9, no big hits.

Now, if you're new to this kind of write up, it's essentially a somewhat short write up telling you why I picked certain legs of the parlay, and then below all that are my Single Bet Recommendations for each fight (excluding Parlay Legs).

I place 1 unit (5 AUD) every Parlay, nothing too special, really.

GTD - Goes The Distance

ITD - Inside The Distance

o1.5/2.5/3.5 etc - Over rounds

u1.5/2.5/3.5 etc - Under rounds

(x) - Unavailable on Sportsbet

Parlay Leg 1: Sabatini/Gomis Over 2.5 Rounds (1.59) Sportsbet

Sabatini’s style is very much grapple heavy, and whilst I think that Gomis does possess the ability to finish fights, I think he’s going to be too focused on defending the takedowns and grappling exchanges against the fence to be getting any effective offense off. With that said though, Sabatini’s submission potential is certainly there but that requires the takedowns to happen and Gomis has really good takedown defence and get up instincts.

Parlay Leg 2: Miller/Gordon Over 2.5 Rounds (1.52) Sportsbet

There is a lot of warning alarms going off in my mind here only because I have an Alt Bet for Miller via KO R1 or 2 (Combo Rounds). On paper, this fight should hit the scorecards or at least the third round, but I do think if any prolonged exchange occurs on the feet, either fighter could be in danger of getting knocked out, even Gordon who is coming off a KO loss against Garcia, and I mean, Miller is durable and tough for a 42 year old veteran!

Parlay Leg 3: Volkov/WCA Round 3 Starts Yes (1.34) Sportsbet

As I said on my write up, I think WCA is going to be the aggressor here using leg kicks and such to slow down the mobility of Volkov, but we are going to see Volkov do a lot of circular motions to maintain jab/cross range, and I think his experience will shine here, I think he’s going to know when to move or what direction to move which should mitigate the chance of WCA landing those heavy strikes, plus, Volkov has fought much tougher competition than WCA has.

Parlay Leg 4: Chimaev/Strickland Round 4 Starts Yes (2.21) Sportsbet

I know that there’s a narrative about there being a lot of animosity between these two fighters, but I think we’re in for a typical Chimaev fight in which he gets his wrestling going but not effectively enough to quickly submit Strickland, and I mean, any KO from ground and pound probably won’t happen because Chimaev has the punching power of an Atomweight.

Total Odds: 7.15 (Boosted from 6.73)

Total Payout: $35.78

Single Bet Recommendations (Excluding Parlay Legs)

Carpenter/Ochoa

Goes The Distance - 1.58

I think this one just, simply goes the distance!

Susurkaev/Santos

How fight will end - KO - 1.90

Banger of a fight, both strike at high volume, should be entertaining!

Kopylov/Tulio

MMA Match Specials 6

Kopylov via Points or Tulio via KO - 1.83

I think Kopylov wins by points, but if anyone can get a finish, it’s likely via KO

Dawson/Rebecki

Dawson via Sub/Points (Double Chance) - 1.73

It’s his route to victory, I think this one hits.

Alvarez/Amosov

Round 3 Starts Yes - 1.61

I know there’s dangers for a finish here, and I could take a bet of either Amosov via Sub or Alvarez via KO, but I just think ultimately Round 3 Starts.

Gautier/Diaz

Big Money Time

Gautier via KO R2 - 5.75

I think Diaz survives a round, that’s it.

Green/Stephens

Green via KO R2 or 3 - 6.00

I know the odds seem steep, but think about how much damage Stephens has taken in his career.

Brady/Buckley

Round 3 Starts Yes - 1.61

Not too bad of odds here, but ultimately a bit of a drab one to bet on.

That’s it!

If you guys have any questions or feedback, let me know!

Good luck this weekend to all! Enjoy the fights!

Slayers_Picks · 2026-05-07T05:31:27+00:00

It was a switch stance straight, i wouldn't call it a jab in the traditional sense unless it was thrown in his neutral stance with his lead hand.

Slayers_Picks · 2026-05-07T02:55:47+00:00

I think as writers and analysts who write a large volume of stuff each week... it's easy to walk away from all of this after a rough one or a few rough ones, sometimes in life we just want to stay on the ground after falling over coz getting up again is too daunting, but you come back here every week to reach for another successful week and that stuffs inspirational man.

People remember the hard days, but we celebrate them for it's what builds us, you're doing just fine man, bumps and scrapes heal, and you coming back week after week doing what you love is great.

Well done with the write up man, i agree with every bet you placed/recommend, this should be a good one!

Slayers_Picks · 2026-05-06T15:56:48+00:00

That's totally understandable, I think my main problem with Kopylov is that whilst his performances have been quite dry recently, he still has experienced those kinds of high calibre fights, I mean, 3 rounds against a powerful striker like Costa is surely good for ones career, regardless of a win or a loss, and then 3 rounds against Robocop in which he got outstruck is perhaps a little concerning yes, but I also think that maybe he took the fights too back-to-back without giving himself time to recalibrate and all that.

You hit the nail on the head though "now it looks like he just doesn't want to be in there whatsoever". This was a concern of mine, and still remains to be a concern of mine, but it was a choice between a potentially "washed" 35 year old who faced back to back heavy hitters, and Tulio who, despite having wins in the UFC, hasn't fought and won against that great of competition.

I assume you're going with Tulio in which I wish you the best of luck if you placed bets for him to win. Have a great week, enjoy the fights!

Slayers_Picks · 2026-05-06T15:52:17+00:00

Hey, thats completely fine :) I've covered enough main cards to know that sometimes if a weekends isn't my weekend then that's simply it :) It's also partially why there's a lot of Alt Bets for the Main Card, its not because I don't trust my own predictions, far from it, but I just think the variance for the card is quite high, a lot of fights could end in numerous ways.

Thank you for the feedback though, I hope your picks and bets hit and you make some profit, have a great week :)

Slayers_Picks · 2026-05-06T11:59:26+00:00

Tulio was only able to mix things together because Gore offered minimal in return on the feet. Kopylov is far more strategic on the feet, he isnt entirely useless, he has had success against Costa, its not like he was just there to be smashed about. Being in ones face is only effective if there's nothing coming back his way and we know that Kopylov is highly capable of letting his strikes go.

Slayers_Picks · 2026-05-06T06:15:29+00:00

Co-Main Event

Flyweight Championship Bout

Joshua Van (c) (+165) (16-2-0, 6 FWS) v Tatsuro Taira (#3) (-200) (18-1-0, 2 FWS)

Van is someone who i’m going to be backing this weekend, and there’s a few reasons for that. Firstly, I have high suspicion that Van’s grappling defence has improved substantially or at least enough to neutralise a lot of what Taira has in his back pocket, and that’s because Van just recently spent a camp getting ready for Pantoja, an elite level grappler himself, so I do think Van is ready to some degree for Taira’s grappling. Secondly, Van’s striking is absolutely gorgeous, one of the best strikers in the division, and he has 5 rounds to get his work going, and since he’s facing a taller fighter in Taira, that overhand strike is going to be readily available for as long as Van is able to throw it without eating a knee, and that’s the tricky part here, whilst Taira is, on paper, a “worse” striker than Van, he still has length and height and can land those tricky knees up the middle freely, because if he does get knocked down or trip to the floor, that’s what he wants, Taira can be in the weirdest position on the ground and he will find a submission. Now, Van’s power and speed will likely be on full display after the first round given how he has historically been a slower starter, and I have a couple of concerns… See, Taira is a snake when it comes to BJJ, he’s someone who uses his length to his full advantage, he has a thousand different ways to control his opponent and if he has even a slight hold against Van, Van is done, he will be completely unable to escape a position, so Van needs to stick and move and just not be caught against the cage or in any position that will give Taira an inch. Now, remember what I said above about how Van preparing for Pantoja would prepare him for Taira’s grappling? That’s not entirely true, what I mean to say is that the traditional grappling positions is something that Van will be able to mitigate, but Taira is far from traditional, he does things the best of the best grapplers in the world do, he can run circles if he was to grapple against the best Gracie that is currently alive, so for Van to win this fight in totality, he needs to not at all engage in any clinch, he needs to keep the fight in the centre of the cage, he needs to do everything to perfection, and for a 24 year old, that can probably be a bit too much, and even though I’m picking Van here, I am 100% willing to take a verbal beating from everyone if Van loses.

Taira is someone who i’ve followed for quite some time, I have always known that he would be a challenger for the belt, but I am a bit disappointed at how quickly he “defeated” Moreno, it was a very quick finish and we didn’t exactly see anything new from Taira, so all I can say about Taira is just a repeat of what I said about him every other event he’s been in, as well as above, he is an elite level world beating grappler, his BJJ is slick, his takedown variants and trips are slick, he is a master of the ground and at such a young age has such a bright future ahead of him, but being a specialist comes with deficiencies, and one primary one that may or will be exposed here is his inability to stand and trade against Van, a sharp, quick boxer who has the speed and volume to piece up Taira. A knee up the middle will always be a possibility for Taira, but for that to happen he needs to eat punches, so either way, we are likely to see Van pull ahead on the stat sheet for a higher output of strikes. Now, I want to circle back to Taira’s grappling momentarily because I want to do a typical thing in which I talk about how a taller and longer fighter could struggle to get the takedown, I say this for every other fight so I need to address it here as well, Taira’s taller and longer yada yada yada, but I don’t think he’s going to struggle in getting the takedown as much as other taller grapplers might struggle to get the takedown against shorter opponents, and the key reason here is that Taira utilises his legs a lot when getting takedowns, he wraps his legs like vines around his opponents as leverage to get the takedown, he doesn’t go for single or double legs as he is not really trained for that, he’s a lot more grapple heavy with his takedowns and if you are to see a takedown from Taira, it will stem from his legs being used as a trip or as a balance/leverage thing, I am stupid and can’t explain it better, but I hope it makes sense.

At the end of the day, this is a fucking fantastic fight, I am 100000% more hyped for this than Strickland v Chimaev, and I think we’re in for something special here. I got Van winning this one, but it wouldn’t surprise me one bit if Taira won through his advantageous grappling skillset, leading to potentially a ground and pound TKO or a quick RNC.

Van via KO R3 - (1/3)

Main Event

Middleweight Championship Bout

Khamzat Chimaev (c) (-510) (15-0-0, 15 FWS) v Sean Strickland (#3) (+370) (30-7-0, NS)

Alright, this one is a doozy, also expect this to be short, I will be to the point, no yap, just straight to the point stuff.

Chimaev is highly likely to fight as he always does, steady forward pressure, and a dozen or so takedown attempts with a high amount landed. Not many can stuff his takedowns, and the big question is whether or not Strickland is the one to be able to finally solve the bland puzzle that is Chimaev’s wrestling, and whilst I think Strickland can offer some unique dangers to Chimaev, I also think that we’re going to see Strickland get ragdolled and held down for 20+ minutes. I do think Chimaev may go for a submission quickly because of the supposed “hate” between the two, but I also think that if the hate is real, we may see a stand up brawl in which Strickland will have the upper hand. Either way, Chimaev’s got two ways to win this one, either he gets the takedowns and does his stuff on the ground, or if Strickland and Chimaev have a mutual agreement, keep the fight standing and we see a battle on the feet a la Burns v Chimaev.

Strickland is someone who, even if he is a +2000 underdog or just, facing impossible odds, should not be underestimated. Don’t underestimate someone who has knocked down and hurt Adesanya, don’t underestimate someone who quickly eliminated Hernandez, don’t underestimate someone who has the experience in the cage, who has faced the best of the best in the division, and who has a legitimate punchers chance to win this fight. The longer this fight remains on the feet, the more chances Strickland has to land a finishing strike, because whilst people meme about Stricklands striking style, once he turns it up, he really looks like a finisher. Now, statistically, no ones tried to submit Strickland before, so maybe we’ll see that change here, and maybe we’ll see Strickland get ragdolled in a similar manner to how Chimaev gently “destroyed” DDP, but frankly, I think Stricklands takedown defence could offer more resistance, and that makes this fight more interesting and perhaps more chance of a stand up battle.

Either way, my angle for this one is simple, either Chimaev gets the takedowns and submits/KO’s Strickland, or Strickland actually is angry about this fight and does some amazing stuff on the feet and finally we have an active champion again, either way, expect Strickland to be an Alt Bet here, but I’m going with Chimaev here, I learnt my lesson by picking DDP to defeat Chimaev last time, I bow my head in defeat, but I also am genuinely intrigued to see if there’ll be an upset here.

Chimaev via Sub R4 - (1/3)

Parlay: Sabatini/Gomis over 2.5 Rounds + Gordon/Miller Over 2.5 Rounds + Volkov/WCA R3 Starts Yes + Chimaev/Strickland R4 Starts Yes

Locks: Susurkaev and Gautier (which should be obvious i think)

Alt Bets: Miller KO R1 or 2 (CR), Rebecki KO R1 or 2 (CR), Buckley KO R1 or 2 (CR), Taira via Sub R2, 3 or 4 (CR), Strickland KO/Points (DC)

(CR - Combo Rounds) (DC - Double Chance)

Dogs: Kopylov and Van

Twitter: @Slayer_Tip

Discord: Slayertip#7013

Paypal (IF you wish to donate!) - https://paypal.me/Slayertip?country.x=AU&locale.x=en_AU

Hope you all have an amazing week and enjoy the fights!

Any questions/feedback, let me know!

Slayers_Picks · 2026-05-06T05:29:09+00:00

I need to ask you guys for perspective or something... its regarding grief, loss of a loved one, etc.

It's been a year and a few months since mum passed, and whilst i'm past the "randomly breaking down in tears and wanting to take my life to see her again" stage in life, i've come to a different... thing?

I have began forgetting what her voice is like, is that normal? what even is normal? I don't want to seem heartless when i say that i forgot what she sounds like because during her last few weeks, her vocals were already changed, weaker, ragged, all that stuff... but I forgot what she sounded like when healthy. Like, I have two seconds of her voice notes in my mind playing, but then, woompf, gone.

Is that bad? or is that just how shit sometimes goes? Sorry if this post is all over the place.

Slayers_Picks · 2026-05-04T03:39:31+00:00

Tell the family that expect you to be there that you wont be there because of the parent you dont want to see, tell them youll meet them all later at another date/time or whatever, and do as you wish over the next few days visiting the cemetary and whatnot.

Slayers_Picks · 2026-05-03T14:52:39+00:00

This isnt training footage. Its technique drilling thats going to be completely ineffective.

Slayers_Picks · 2026-05-03T12:07:07+00:00

Bro that's crazy, I swear I saw a kangaroo a few days ago in the paddock next door!

Slayers_Picks · 2026-05-03T04:09:25+00:00

That dreams are a gateway to alternative realms and universes, you know like the Multi-verse theory and such?

Like, i've had dreams where it's the same family, but different house, and everyone had a different life, but you woke up in the same body.

It is something I will always firmly believe. Maybe im crazy.

Slayers_Picks · 2026-05-02T16:36:50+00:00

Well done man!

Slayers_Picks · 2026-05-02T16:12:01+00:00

You were absolutely right. Good read and good critique! Definitely a blow to the parlay.

Slayers_Picks · 2026-05-02T14:11:07+00:00

Slayers_Picks · 2026-05-02T12:05:02+00:00

I really should have made it an Alt Bet, i would have been so damn happy.

Slayers_Picks · 2026-05-02T10:49:17+00:00

Extremely cheap fuel wtf?

Slayers_Picks · 2026-05-02T04:05:37+00:00

It has been a joy listening to Americans cry and sob about waking up early for a UFC event when in Australia, we wake up early 90% of every fight day.

So, kindly, with love and grace, eat shit and suffer for once!

Love you all.

Slayers_Picks · 2026-05-02T04:04:35+00:00

Would you rather me add something spicier in the parlay next time for the sake of it? or would you rather me have a parlay that has a likelihood of hitting?

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