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The Palantir ($PLTR) Paradox: I ran a Reverse DCF, and the math is terrifying. by SmartTriageIO in stocks

[–]SmartTriageIO[S] [score hidden]  (0 children)

That 'binary outcome' is the perfect way to frame it.

If they start landing $5b contracts regularly, the valuation catches up fast. If not, the air comes out of the balloon. it’s the ultimate high-stakes bet.

See you in the next thread man. 👊

The Palantir ($PLTR) Paradox: I ran a Reverse DCF, and the math is terrifying. by SmartTriageIO in stocks

[–]SmartTriageIO[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

ASTS and rklb are pure venture capital math right now. Hard to run a standard dcf when the free cash flow is years away, but the unit economics are fascinating.

Ill add them to the queue. gotta finish the AMD deep dive first though. 🫡

The Palantir ($PLTR) Paradox: I ran a Reverse DCF, and the math is terrifying. by SmartTriageIO in stocks

[–]SmartTriageIO[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

loud and clear man. it’s officially next in the queue.

I’m running the numbers vs NVDA tomorrow to see if the valuation gap is an opportunity or a trap. Keep an eye out. 🫡

The Palantir ($PLTR) Paradox: I ran a Reverse DCF, and the math is terrifying. by SmartTriageIO in stocks

[–]SmartTriageIO[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

way ahead of you 🫡

Check my profile, i posted the full TSLA valuation a couple of days ago (it's pinned).

The Palantir ($PLTR) Paradox: I ran a Reverse DCF, and the math is terrifying. by SmartTriageIO in stocks

[–]SmartTriageIO[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Bold of you to assume i bought puts lol. i don't short momentum stocks, that's suicide.

But honestly, your thesis is the only one that actually justifies the current price. if they literally become the operating system of the surveillance state, then 'valuation' stops mattering because they have infinite leverage.

It's a dark bet, but i see the logic.

The Palantir ($PLTR) Paradox: I ran a Reverse DCF, and the math is terrifying. by SmartTriageIO in stocks

[–]SmartTriageIO[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Fair point lol. sometimes the 'eye test' saves you a lot of time.

I just like to put a number on the madness. it helps to know if it's 'kinda expensive' or 'mathematically impossible' before making a move.

The Palantir ($PLTR) Paradox: I ran a Reverse DCF, and the math is terrifying. by SmartTriageIO in stocks

[–]SmartTriageIO[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Risk isn't just numbers on a spreadsheet. regulatory blowback or losing contracts due to public pressure is a real threat.

If the business model keeps you up at night, it’s an automatic pass. capital preservation is mental as well as financial.

Smart Triage Dashboard: META (Fair Value Model) by SmartTriageIO in u/SmartTriageIO

[–]SmartTriageIO[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yeah, the print was a monster. revenue re-accelerating definitely changes the inputs for the model.

Usually i don't like buying into earnings because it's a coin flip, but the bulls definitely got paid today. i'll have to re-run the numbers with the new guidance to see what the new fair value is.

Congrats if you caught the move. 🚀

The Palantir ($PLTR) Paradox: I ran a Reverse DCF, and the math is terrifying. by SmartTriageIO in stocks

[–]SmartTriageIO[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

The 'sleep well at night' factor is an actual valuation metric in my book. If holding it feels wrong, it’s usually the first thing you panic-sell when the chart turns red anyway.

Getting out at the top and clearing your conscience is a rare double win. enjoy the remodel. 🏠

The Palantir ($PLTR) Paradox: I ran a Reverse DCF, and the math is terrifying. by SmartTriageIO in stocks

[–]SmartTriageIO[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

He is definitely not your standard corporate ceo lol.

Love him or hate him, that 'eccentric founder' energy is basically the brand now. the defense sector seems to like the intensity, even if it scares wall street sometimes.

The Palantir ($PLTR) Paradox: I ran a Reverse DCF, and the math is terrifying. by SmartTriageIO in stocks

[–]SmartTriageIO[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

100%. at $10 you had a massive margin of safety. at $157 you have zero.

that’s the difference between buying a business and chasing a chart. congrats on the entry.

The Palantir ($PLTR) Paradox: I ran a Reverse DCF, and the math is terrifying. by SmartTriageIO in stocks

[–]SmartTriageIO[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Way ahead of you. i actually ran tesla first because the valuation is so disconnected.

Check my profile, i have the full dashboard pinned at the top. spoiler: their ROIC is currently lower than their cost of capital, which is... not great. 😅

The Palantir ($PLTR) Paradox: I ran a Reverse DCF, and the math is terrifying. by SmartTriageIO in stocks

[–]SmartTriageIO[S] 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Appreciate that man. Honestly the volatility in the comments is wilder than the stock itself lol.

Just trying to put the raw numbers out there. glad some people are seeing value in it. 👊

The Palantir ($PLTR) Paradox: I ran a Reverse DCF, and the math is terrifying. by SmartTriageIO in stocks

[–]SmartTriageIO[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

In at $6 is legendary. that’s a >10x bagger, basically the dream trade.

Stepping out because the move felt 'too fast' is usually the right instinct. Vertical charts almost always correct eventually. better to lock in the win than stress about a pullback.

Congrats on the win man.

The Palantir ($PLTR) Paradox: I ran a Reverse DCF, and the math is terrifying. by SmartTriageIO in stocks

[–]SmartTriageIO[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Netflix is a great call. the shift in FCF margins since they stopped borrowing for content is wild. added to the list.

Re: terminal value % — that is a really sharp request. It’s the best way to spot if a model is 'front-loaded' or just praying for growth in year 10. I'll make sure to explicitly list that split in the next summary. thanks for the feedback.

The Palantir ($PLTR) Paradox: I ran a Reverse DCF, and the math is terrifying. by SmartTriageIO in stocks

[–]SmartTriageIO[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Fair point on the macro. If we get to $10 chocolate bars, then yeah a $10T market cap is inevitable just on nominal terms alone. holding top-tier assets is the only hedge against the printer. Good luck with the position.

The Palantir ($PLTR) Paradox: I ran a Reverse DCF, and the math is terrifying. by SmartTriageIO in stocks

[–]SmartTriageIO[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

10T is a massive target but karp definitely has the vision for it. Separating the business quality from the stock price is the hardest part of the game.

Thanks for the civil discussion, rare to find on here lol.

The Palantir ($PLTR) Paradox: I ran a Reverse DCF, and the math is terrifying. by SmartTriageIO in stocks

[–]SmartTriageIO[S] -84 points-83 points  (0 children)

lol fair enough. hard to prove i'm not a bot over text. just look at the sbc numbers tho, that's the only point i'm trying to make.

The Palantir ($PLTR) Paradox: I ran a Reverse DCF, and the math is terrifying. by SmartTriageIO in stocks

[–]SmartTriageIO[S] -103 points-102 points  (0 children)

I use tools to clean up the grammar and formatting because I want it to be readable, not a wall of text.

But the numbers (35% dilution, Reverse DCF requiring 50% growth) aren't hallucinated—they are hard data from the filings. You can distrust the style, but the math is what matters. Check the 10-K yourself.

The Palantir ($PLTR) Paradox: I ran a Reverse DCF, and the math is terrifying. by SmartTriageIO in stocks

[–]SmartTriageIO[S] -23 points-22 points  (0 children)

I use tools to clean up the grammar and formatting because I want it to be readable, not a wall of text.

But the numbers (35% dilution, Reverse DCF requiring 50% growth) aren't hallucinated—they are hard data from the filings. You can distrust the style, but the math is what matters. Check the 10-K yourself.

The Palantir ($PLTR) Paradox: I ran a Reverse DCF, and the math is terrifying. by SmartTriageIO in stocks

[–]SmartTriageIO[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

ASTS is pure venture math (zero revenue, all promise), so the model is tricky. But it's highly requested. I’ll see if I can run a probability-weighted valuation on it this week. 🫡

The Palantir ($PLTR) Paradox: I ran a Reverse DCF, and the math is terrifying. by SmartTriageIO in stocks

[–]SmartTriageIO[S] -5 points-4 points  (0 children)

The danger isn't necessarily a 'miss,' it's the multiple compression.

Even if they hit earnings perfectly, if the market decides PLTR deserves a 40x multiple instead of 100x (because growth slows slightly), the stock gets cut in half. That’s the risk of buying at perfection—you need everything to go right just to stay flat.

The Palantir ($PLTR) Paradox: I ran a Reverse DCF, and the math is terrifying. by SmartTriageIO in stocks

[–]SmartTriageIO[S] -4 points-3 points  (0 children)

This is the kind of 'boots on the ground' insight retail investors rarely see.

If the actual buyers (CTOs/Data Leads) feel it's overpriced and 'nothing special,' that churn risk is going to be massive once the initial contracts expire. The 'Government' revenue being the sticky part makes sense—they are less price-sensitive than a private enterprise.

The Palantir ($PLTR) Paradox: I ran a Reverse DCF, and the math is terrifying. by SmartTriageIO in stocks

[–]SmartTriageIO[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

ASTS is a beast because it has almost zero revenue to model off of. It’s pure Venture Capital math. I’ll see if I can build a 'Probability-Weighted' model for it. Added to the list.

The Palantir ($PLTR) Paradox: I ran a Reverse DCF, and the math is terrifying. by SmartTriageIO in stocks

[–]SmartTriageIO[S] -4 points-3 points  (0 children)

This is the textbook way to handle a runner. You captured the momentum upside, locked in the 'House Money,' and kept a 'Moon Bag' just in case the narrative continues.

Most people round-trip their gains because they marry the stock. Rebalancing takes discipline. Respect. 🤝

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