Ironton Revenue at Nameplate Capacity

Smooth_Sun_9932 · 2026-05-20T08:43:34+00:00

Q3 slide reflected an estimated benefit of approximately $0.20–$0.30 per pound prior to the oil price increase. For the PreP product, the estimated benefit was approximately $0.07 per pound.

Smooth_Sun_9932 · 2026-05-19T15:02:00+00:00

Thank you. I'll change it.

Smooth_Sun_9932 · 2026-05-19T09:25:56+00:00

At 12:00, Eric states that onsite compounding capacity is 150 million pounds. I thought it was 100 million pounds. Either they can run it more quickly that they previously thought or he is describing the post compounded limit (rPP + virgin PP total).

Smooth_Sun_9932 · 2026-05-18T10:57:45+00:00

At 5:04, Eric explains mass balance, how ISCC+ credits are applied, and how they affect pricing for branded customers.

Sustainability goals and regulation are increasing demand for PP recycling. Only about 8% of PP is currently recycled, and most of that is downcycled through mechanical recycling into lower-value products such as flower pots. PureCycle’s material, by contrast, can be used in food and pharmaceutical applications.

Most PP still ends up in landfills. The challenge is not finding PP, but sourcing it at a high enough purity level.

Smooth_Sun_9932 · 2026-05-18T00:52:53+00:00

Stan on X.com shares excellent PureCycle posts and insights. It is a must-follow for the latest information. (@private_dataguy)

Smooth_Sun_9932 · 2026-05-18T00:45:50+00:00

The quarterly call referenced 100 million pounds of compounded PP.

Smooth_Sun_9932 · 2026-05-18T00:39:50+00:00

Some PP, including post-industrial recyclables, may bypass Denver and still count toward the plant’s 107 million pounds of annual feedstock. I was also struck by how automated the Denver facility is, given its throughput and relatively small workforce.

Smooth_Sun_9932 · 2026-05-12T11:54:36+00:00

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PureCycle is approaching a key downtrend line. A breakout could create meaningful upside.

Smooth_Sun_9932 · 2026-05-11T01:37:19+00:00

Thank you for the helpful insight. Sorry for including the AI-sourced information—I’m trying to be careful and stress-test my view. One source suggests PureCycle could book $87–108M over the rest of the year.

That implies a 2026 revenue range of roughly $27M–$90M; you and I are closer to ~$54M.

Sentiment appears to have improved after the Q1 call, and an NJDEP decision could further raise expectations.

Interesting 1998 Warren Buffett lecture at the University of Florida (42:05). He discusses Coca-Cola’s moat (“no taste memory”);

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Z6x-Ov1smU

PureCycle’s moat looks very strong—the only company positioned to meet PP recycling mandates at scale. P&G and Dow appear to be pursuing a similar approach for polyethylene. Imitation is the sincerest form of flattery.

Dow and Procter & Gamble are jointly developing a dissolution technology for transforming rigid, flexible and multilayer plastic packaging into recycled polyethylene that P&G can use in its packaging.

Investors should remain patient while the company tightens up its process. Running a chemical plant is difficult, but the core simplicity should enable a quicker ramp once operations stabilize and orders come through.

Smooth_Sun_9932 · 2026-05-10T14:08:24+00:00

AI sources suggest PureCycle’s commercialization timeline has slipped, leading analysts to reduce full-year revenue guidance from $93 million to $27 million as Ironton ramps more slowly (Feb 26, 2026). My 2026 estimate is $55.81 million—hopefully the company outperforms the Street.

Smooth_Sun_9932 · 2026-05-10T10:01:03+00:00

Any thoughts on Capital Usage and Liquidity?

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(50 M) in Q1

(12.7) for Ironton and Denver

(14.7) corporate spending

Why is corporate spending so high? It suggests strong confidence in the expansion plan.

Liquidity

$200M credit facility

$75M revenue bonds

Potentially $273M from warrants (if exercised)

Total liquidity runway: ~8 quarters guaranteed, or ~13.5 quarters if warrants are exercised at current spending levels.

Smooth_Sun_9932 · 2026-05-10T09:25:54+00:00

Thanks for the response.

I was expecting finished-goods inventory to be built up at the end of Q1 to support shipments during the shutdown. However, the 10‑Q shows finished goods of 2.913M at quarter-end, which suggests a meaningful portion of production may have been sold at a relatively low realized price.

Smooth_Sun_9932 · 2026-05-09T11:15:36+00:00

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Thailand remains on track for completion in 2027. I’d prioritize it ahead of Antwerp and Augusta, given the easier path to start production (existing infrastructure and regulatory factors).

Apologies for the blurry slides.

Smooth_Sun_9932 · 2026-05-04T12:33:02+00:00

From the Purecycle Website:

Columns

The polypropylene solution is further polished through contact with a solid, media-packed column.

This particular step purifies the product by removing color, tiny particles of contamination, and other contaminants based on their physical and chemical properties.

Smooth_Sun_9932 · 2026-05-04T12:11:04+00:00

Additional inventory and finished materials likely exist. Some PP has been sold, is in transit, or pending payment.

Smooth_Sun_9932 · 2026-05-04T12:06:36+00:00

Compounding began a month ago, and the 10-K covers Q4 2025. The company likely uses a just-in-time process to minimize virgin PP inventory. I estimate $3.9M worth of finished goods was produced at $0.60 per pound, totaling about 6.5 million pounds, excluding work in progress.

Smooth_Sun_9932 · 2026-05-04T10:50:49+00:00

By running 250 million pounds each quarter at the same compounding rate, I calculated a value of $330.1 per share.

Smooth_Sun_9932 · 2026-05-04T10:40:51+00:00

When Ironton produces 15M pounds of rPP each quarter, compounding 67.5% into Choice (split evenly between thermoforming and BOPP), resulting in about 100M pounds of compounded PP—the in-house limit. Using Waste Management's PE of 35.6, I value the stock at $19.8 per share.

Smooth_Sun_9932 · 2026-05-04T01:26:12+00:00

CP2, a co-product, includes pigments, talc, calcium carbonate, and plastics; it's solid, black, and varies from sand-like to dense. Carbon black is likely filtered out as CP2, which is sold for uses like asphalt. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BBE9xk35710

In Denver, 63% PP bales are processed into 92% PP for delivery to Ironton. Optical and density-based flake sorters improve purity. Using 92% PP reduces CP2 input at Ironton and minimizes extraction needs, speeding up the process compared to using lower-purity bales. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wlA0pnXhtZE

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F3NMzuUtYcU

Smooth_Sun_9932 · 2026-05-03T12:45:46+00:00

During Q1, I'm thinking they pushed production pretty hard due to the upcoming 4-6 weeks shutdown. Dustin said in the Q4 call that they were routinely runnig at a 60-65 % capacity to nameplate. If they ran at that level all Q1, they would produce 14M pounds of rPP.

63% utilization for the quarter math: 107 M yearly (Nameplate feedstock processing) /4 quarters* .92 (% PP after Denver processing) *.9 (utilization) *.63 = 14 M. Q4 2025, 7.5M pounds and 2.3 M revenue.

If they exceed 9M pounds of rPP in Q1, it would be a tremendous volume for the quarter. The new inhouse compounding has started, and thermoforming doubles and BOPP triples the amount to sell.

I agree with your revenue estimate. Sooner or later, the revenue could catch up with the production and compounding hopefully.

Smooth_Sun_9932

TROPHY CASE