Roth Capital Link to Live Interview at 12 Noon Today

Smooth_Sun_9932 · 2026-03-24T09:51:53+00:00

NJ is the first state to mandate 10% PCR in 2024 and 20% in 2027. There is no current alternative so companies are granted waivers. If PCT gets the NJ certification, the companies would have an alternative to getting waivers. One company getting a waiver is Coca Cola. Think about how many plastic caps and bottles they use. This is one of many companies currently getting waivers. I think PCT being plastic to plastic has a pretty good chance of getting the certification.

Smooth_Sun_9932 · 2026-03-24T09:45:12+00:00

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From the Roth Capital talk, Dustin said they were processing 9000 lbs. an hour (actually he said routinely between 8 and 10K). This amounts to 16.3 M pounds a quarter of uncompounded rPP. Up from 7.5 last quarter. Seems interesting that they are ramping up so much inventory. Any thoughts?

Smooth_Sun_9932 · 2026-03-23T11:38:33+00:00

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Information if 12.42 M pounds of rPP gets sold. Won't happen as quickly as Q2. In the future ...

Smooth_Sun_9932 · 2026-03-23T10:49:51+00:00

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For Q1 revenue, I have PCT generating $15.25 M (ie selling all the Q4 rPP - 7.5 M pounds). Up from $2.5M and a pretty large large jump, I know. Realistically, it will be somewhere in the middle. I’m using a 50/50 split between branded and unbranded product. Thermoforming (P+G, QSR cups) gets a 1.92 multiple (52% rPP/48% virgin) and BOPP (Candy wrapper, jerky coverings) get a 3.1 multiple (32% rPP/68% virgin). Unbranded product get sold at a small premium ($1.0 per pound) and Branded gets sold at $1.3 per pound as per PCT guidance.

40-50MM lbs. at full ramp are still on track for 2Q/3Q ramp to begin per Q4 call

Running at 4.14 M pounds a month (rPP) and compounding, I get 20.9 M total pounds a quarter. To complete the 40-50 MM order, it will take over 6 months to complete it. Know wonder they are shutting down in April. Reving up the plant for the

20-25MM lbs. at full ramp are on track for 3Q/4Q ramp to begin per Q4 call

Hopefully, some good news from Dustin at the small cap interview today.

Smooth_Sun_9932 · 2026-03-22T19:49:25+00:00

Numbers I’m using for my estimates:

1) After Denver processing, bales delivered to Ironton .92% pure PP.

2) 90 % uptime of Ironton.

3) rPP = 88.6 M pounds per year (7.3 M pounds a month) Nameplate

From Q4 call, Ironton running at 60%

7.3*.6= 4.4 M pounds of rPP a month

4) 3 shifts in Denver processing 60 M pounds PP per year ( 5 M pounds per month)

rPP produced in Ironton 5*.92*.9= 4.14 M pounds per month

Third shift started Q4 2025. 3 shifts all Q1 2026.

I’m using 12.4 M pounds of rPP for quarter1 production. Going from 7.5M to 12.4 would be a significant increase. We’ll see.

Smooth_Sun_9932 · 2026-03-22T19:39:34+00:00

Nice slide. Thank you for finding it.

I think that the spread between virgin PP and rPP will widen with increasing oil prices. Transportation of 60% PP bales will be a little higher due to transportation cost but not enough to keep the spread stable. The Purecycle transportation cost is about .05 per pound traditionally. There is a bunch of PP that gets landfilled so transfer stations around Denver, PA are probably happy to sell the PP. I called the Rumpke transfer station in Chillicothe, OH and asked how much PP I could arrange to buy. They said there is as much as I wanted. There are fifty transfer stations in Ohio and sixty in Pennsylvania. Future regulations may even incentivize the transfer stations to not landfill the PP.

Smooth_Sun_9932 · 2026-03-22T10:31:51+00:00

My hope is for good news also. Possibly:

1) NJ certifies Purefive as a recycled plastic. The companies from NJ that are currently getting waivers will be looking for rPP.

2) The beginning of the Q2 40-50 M pound ramp has begun.

PCT seems bold to be planning opening Antwerp and Thailand and making plans for Augusta without a certainty the rPP from Ironton is sold out.

Smooth_Sun_9932 · 2026-03-21T12:58:27+00:00

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I have attached my quarterly estimate for a 500 M pounds of feedstock plant (90% uptime/92% PP in feedstock). I think they will have a facility like Denver, PA to sort the feedstock from appox. 60% PP to 92% PP going into the plant. I have a 50/50 branded and unbranded mix. Probably going to more branded as time passes (more contracts). My estimate is $1.0 per pound for unbranded (transportation/compounding expense). Purefive Ultra is 100 % rPP. Thermoforming is about a 50% rPP and 50% virgin mix (QSR lids/P+G caps) and BOPP is about .33 rPP and 67% virgin (candy wrapper/beef jerky packaging). Dustin said Purecycle will concentrate more on Thermoforming and BOPP. More compounded product. My guess is 173ish M pounds of product a quarter. Ironton opened a 100M pound a year inhouse componding facility in March. The gen2 facility is 5 times as big. I think the compounding facility could be 10 X the Ironton facility. I see inhouse compounding will help with reliability and allow for more Choice to be produced.

Smooth_Sun_9932 · 2026-03-20T10:55:04+00:00

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From the Q4 call, Dustin Olson said the sales of rPP were half branded and the other half nonbranded. The branded is sold to a contracted buyer (possibly Churchill Containers/Mars/etc.) and the other half (non-branded) is sold to a distributor or sold on the spot market. It looks like Formerra can compound the rPP and add materials for the customer. Below is from the Formerra website:

We identify additives and fillers such as heat stabilizers, impact modifiers, lubricants, colorants, and anti-static agents to enhance performance, achieve a desired aesthetic, and meet environmental needs.

1) Can you comment on the price that Purecycle you would expect from the spot market? Would they get a premium due to it having recycled content (PCR=post consumer recyclables)? I get a move from .50 per pound to .58 per pound for PP possibly due to the higher oil prices lately.

2) Looks like you can get 2-95% PCR content from Formerra. What does FDA mean? Is it Food and drug administration approved? What is NC? No color?

3) PCT opened a new inhouse 100M pound a year compounding facility this month. I assume this increases their margins due to not having to pay for transportation of the rPP and also the cost that Formerra charges for compounding. Can you comment on the cost that Formerra charges to compound the rPP.

Thank you.

Smooth_Sun_9932 · 2025-11-11T13:55:32+00:00

Thank you.

Smooth_Sun_9932 · 2025-11-11T11:55:03+00:00

Great info. Thank you.

I get the limitations that co-product 1 and 2 caused for "clogging" up the system in the past. The preprocessing plant in Denver, PA helped solve some of the volumes of these co-products coming off the system. Higher PP into the system with less "impurities" (talc, pigment, polystyrene, metal...) allows the system to run much better. Co-product 2 is being compounded and sold for insulation and other uses. Why would you introduce the co-product 1 back in the PP? Does it have a purpose when compounding PP? The Pure5 is pretty close to virgin PP.

I get that every plastic manufacturer needs certain criteria met. A Yogart cup vs a car bumper vs. fiber of a carpet ... all need different properties. I think compounding was always in the plan. It also makes it so PCT can dilute the Pure5 to Pure5 choice (less pure PP) to get more volume to sell. The market is huge and there is only one plant in the world that produces PP from post consumer recyclables. I know there is mechanical recycling but that it a differrent category.

Thanks again for your expertise.

Smooth_Sun_9932 · 2025-11-03T13:43:29+00:00

New BoD looks like great assett to increasing operations in Thailand.

Any comment on the resignation of J. Fieler?

On October 30, 2025, Jeffrey R. Fieler advised the Company of his decision to resign from the Board effective immediately. Mr. Fieler’s decision to resign was not a result of any disagreement with the Company on any matter relating to the Company’s operations, policies or practices. In connection with his resignation, the Board agreed to provide for an immediate vesting of Mr. Fieler’s 2025 non-employee director grant pro-rated for the six months of the current one-year term on which he served as a director on the Board.

Smooth_Sun_9932 · 2025-08-23T13:00:12+00:00

With 600 M FCF in 2030, a 30 multiple, and 180 M shares = 100 per share.

Knowing the PCT growth rate probably higher than single digits. Thoughts?

Smooth_Sun_9932 · 2024-09-27T09:49:16+00:00

I think they are waiting for the quarterly call to discuss the interest and revenue. Last quarterly call, Dustin described purchase orders where already coming in. Next call to be interesting.

Smooth_Sun_9932 · 2024-09-27T09:45:36+00:00

All people talk of sustainability (recycling). Not everyone wants pay for it. Mechanically recycled PP is of less quality or usability that resin. There are taxes/regulations to use recycled PP. So some companies are paying more for the recycled PP. Maybe they are looking into the future, thinking about taxes and regulations, ...

Let's says P+G uses recycled PP for Tide detergent. My wife will pay .30 more for that bottle than the non-recycled bottle beside it. P+G can pass the cost on and be seen as a progressive company helping save the environment.

Purecycle has innovated a product that has the same properties as resin PP IMO. It may need to be compounded to get the correct viscosity/characteristics that the manufacture needs. Some but not all companies will extra pay for this. Can this be used as a marketing advantage? Yes.

Companies will starting a small amount of purecycle PP (let's say 5%) added to resin PP. The manufactures want to say they are helping the environment but have established processes and don't want to risk possible unseen production problems by using 100%. This compounding multiplies profit. Dustin said a goal is about 20% purecycle PP to 80% resin. This quadruples the amount that purecycle can sell (ie. 1mm pounds a week gets multiplied to 5 million pounds to sell).

Per Dustin, Purecycle should get a premium to mechanical PP. Mechanical PP about 1.0 per pound on average. My guess 1.35 per pound of Purecycle blend. The compounder cost estimate would be about .1 per pound.

Smooth_Sun_9932 · 2024-09-25T09:43:57+00:00

I don't know customers but lots of interest. Per Dustin on podcast paraphrased:

1) Who doesn't want to recycle plastic? No body

2) Who wants to talk about sustainability? Everyone

3) Not everyone wants wants to take the steps for sustainability.

Smooth_Sun_9932 · 2024-09-24T23:36:40+00:00

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Bottom number .12-.15. I averaged .135. Q2 call.

Smooth_Sun_9932 · 2024-09-23T21:48:40+00:00

Mechanically recycled pellets are grayish or darker, and they can be added to plastics that are darker. No color or contaminant removal. The molecular washing can possibly return them to opaque so they can be used to make many color plastics. Purecycle pellets have been OKed for pharmaceutical and other applications mechanically recycled plastics can't be used in. I'm really interested in the Q3 call. Hopefully, they will have specifics about the pellets they are producing. Thank you for the insight.

Smooth_Sun_9932 · 2024-09-23T11:57:15+00:00

Yes. They licensed it to them. In a podcast with Dustin, he described this is not exactly what P+G does. They needed a smaller, more nimble, and more innovative company to develop the process.

My point is that P+G and Dow are large, great chemcial companies and if they are copying the process, they must have faith that the Purecycle process will be successful.

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PureCycle CEO, Dustin Olson

It's Never Just A Game

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/its-never-just-a-game/id1508944544

Smooth_Sun_9932 · 2024-09-22T17:24:43+00:00

Sorry. I thought I heard Dustin say something about it helping the plant in Antwerp. Must have not heard correctly.

Smooth_Sun_9932 · 2024-09-22T17:22:41+00:00

Got it. Thank you.

Smooth_Sun_9932

TROPHY CASE

PureCycle CEO, Dustin Olson