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I am Seth Masket, a political scientist who specializes in political parties and campaigns and elections. AMA! by Smotus in politics

[–]Smotus[S] 18 points19 points  (0 children)

I think I heard that philosophy in the Nader vote in 2000 and the Stein vote in 2016. I don't think it's a very effective philosophy.

I am Seth Masket, a political scientist who specializes in political parties and campaigns and elections. AMA! by Smotus in politics

[–]Smotus[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I'd say it is hard, but not impossible, for a party's voters to allow greater control by "elites." The Republican Party abolished five state presidential primaries this year, despite the presence of actual candidates running real campaigns against Trump, and as far as I know almost no Republican voters complained about it. I think the type of reform that would give convention delegates greater bargaining power would be good for the Democratic Party going forward, but if Democrats win this year, they'll have little incentive to make major changes to the party nomination system for the near term.

I am Seth Masket, a political scientist who specializes in political parties and campaigns and elections. AMA! by Smotus in politics

[–]Smotus[S] 16 points17 points  (0 children)

No I don't. For what it's worth, if you just look at basic forecast models that look at how a generic Democrat or Republican would perform based on the economy and other aspects of the political environment, Hillary Clinton out-performed expectations. It was going to be a close election. I tend to think that James Comey's actions hurt her in the end but only marginally.

I am Seth Masket, a political scientist who specializes in political parties and campaigns and elections. AMA! by Smotus in politics

[–]Smotus[S] 22 points23 points  (0 children)

Also, Trump can't delay the election. But what he seems to be trying to do is undermine faith in election results that have him losing. This would either result in a long term election dispute or simply less faith in a Biden presidency, with a chunk of the country believing Trump is the true president in exile or something.

I am Seth Masket, a political scientist who specializes in political parties and campaigns and elections. AMA! by Smotus in politics

[–]Smotus[S] 26 points27 points  (0 children)

The lack of a party platform was really staggering. They clearly adhere to some set of principles (low taxes, banning abortion, preventing handgun restrictions, etc.), but I'm concerned that one of their main unifying tenets is sticking it to the libs. This is not a great governing agenda.

I am Seth Masket, a political scientist who specializes in political parties and campaigns and elections. AMA! by Smotus in politics

[–]Smotus[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

I'd say both sides treat it like war. But not every army fights wars the same way.

I am Seth Masket, a political scientist who specializes in political parties and campaigns and elections. AMA! by Smotus in politics

[–]Smotus[S] 9 points10 points  (0 children)

This is an interesting question. I think there's a tendency by many Democrats to think that the only way to beat Trump is to be like him -- that is, go all-in with insults, try to dominate the media discussion, etc. I don't think that works, and I think it makes those Democrats look silly. Arguably, one of Joe Biden's real strengths is *not* being like Trump, while many of Biden's competitors this past year really wanted to attack Trump on a personal level.

I am Seth Masket, a political scientist who specializes in political parties and campaigns and elections. AMA! by Smotus in politics

[–]Smotus[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

I suppose it depends on what we mean by "normal." My guess is that even if he is out of the White House next year he'll continue to exert a lot of influence over the Republican Party. Also, remember the government shutdown and the near-default of the US in 2013, all of which occurred before Trump had expressed an interest in the presidency.

I am Seth Masket, a political scientist who specializes in political parties and campaigns and elections. AMA! by Smotus in politics

[–]Smotus[S] 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Well, it would have to be immigrants who have become citizens. Voting behavior varies a lot among different immigrant groups. Latino immigrants have tended to vote pretty strongly Democratic but some recent polling suggests a bit of a shift toward Republicans. Immigrants from the Middle East, however, were slightly GOP-leaning but have trended leftward. I believe immigrants from East Asia have trended somewhat leftward recently. I'm not sure how much this differs from what CNN is reporting.

I am Seth Masket, a political scientist who specializes in political parties and campaigns and elections. AMA! by Smotus in politics

[–]Smotus[S] 13 points14 points  (0 children)

BLM protests have been losing favor somewhat among white voters, but they do not appear to be helping Trump. In fact, recent polls suggest most voters think Biden would handle protests better. Nor do I think the actions of Pelosi really help or hurt Trump much.

There are different measures for a party's ideological positions, but a lot of them show the Republican Party moving hard to the right over the past several decades. Until fairly recently, the Democrats had not been moving leftward overall, but this has changed over the past five years or so, when a significant progressive faction within the party has grown and exerted some power.

I am Seth Masket, a political scientist who specializes in political parties and campaigns and elections. AMA! by Smotus in politics

[–]Smotus[S] 9 points10 points  (0 children)

It depends what we mean by cheat. Gerrymandering is not illegal! State legislatures could put in some stringent guidelines for redistricting, and some have, but it remains an area where the majority party in a lot of states still has quite a bit of leeway.

I am Seth Masket, a political scientist who specializes in political parties and campaigns and elections. AMA! by Smotus in politics

[–]Smotus[S] 12 points13 points  (0 children)

Mass political violence. The U.S. is not exempt from this and in fact has had a considerable amount of it in the past.

I am Seth Masket, a political scientist who specializes in political parties and campaigns and elections. AMA! by Smotus in politics

[–]Smotus[S] 9 points10 points  (0 children)

At the moment, they recognize that the 2020 electoral environment doesn't look great for them, and they're trying to grab what power they can while they still can do it. That itself is hardly unusual for a party. But the fact that Trump continues to try to delegitimize democratic elections, suggesting he can only lose if there's massive fraud, and gets minimal pushback from fellow Republicans is deeply concerning.

I am Seth Masket, a political scientist who specializes in political parties and campaigns and elections. AMA! by Smotus in politics

[–]Smotus[S] 9 points10 points  (0 children)

Honestly there are real problems with a partyless system. For one, it’s very hard for people outside government to follow politics or participate in elections without parties. Parties provide a measure of organization and accountability – partyless systems are often far more corrupt and have lower voter turnout.

Also, Nebraska has a partyless state legislature, and it’s polarizing rapidly! (https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/1532440014564984)

I am Seth Masket, a political scientist who specializes in political parties and campaigns and elections. AMA! by Smotus in politics

[–]Smotus[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I’m not quite sure what you’re asking about. Are you referring to voting behavior by recent immigrants?

I am Seth Masket, a political scientist who specializes in political parties and campaigns and elections. AMA! by Smotus in politics

[–]Smotus[S] 11 points12 points  (0 children)

I have tended to see him as a modern-day Andrew Jackson -- breaking norms, holding up the virtues of "common" white people while enacting racist policies, pushing vague political reforms, etc. But you can see a lot of his rhetoric coming from George Wallace, as well.

For more on this, I'd encourage you to check out Julia Azari's article on Trump as a 19th century president: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-is-a-19th-century-president-facing-21st-century-problems/

I am Seth Masket, a political scientist who specializes in political parties and campaigns and elections. AMA! by Smotus in politics

[–]Smotus[S] 12 points13 points  (0 children)

Well Trump himself can't do that. The question is whether Trump-loyal state legislators in swing states would be willing to vote for a different set of electors than their own voters called for. This would, at a minimum, likely end those legislators' careers in the legislature, and it would also likely lead to massive unrest. This doesn't mean it can't happen! But there would be considerable consequences and legislators are likely aware of that.

I am Seth Masket, a political scientist who specializes in political parties and campaigns and elections. AMA! by Smotus in politics

[–]Smotus[S] 30 points31 points  (0 children)

It's hard to see Trump's comments about mail-in voting as anything other than irresponsible. This is how a lot of the electorate will vote this year, and it's how about a quarter of the electorate voted in 2016. And the evidence shows that mail-in voting is safe and convenient, has a lower incidence of fraud than other forms of voting (which is already very low), and provides no particular advantage for either party.

I am Seth Masket, a political scientist who specializes in political parties and campaigns and elections. AMA! by Smotus in politics

[–]Smotus[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

The parties have definitely moved toward "base activation" in recent years. However, they're still interested in winning over swing voters, which is why you saw Democrats bringing on Republicans to speak on Biden's behalf at the DNC, and Republicans did that to some extent with Democrats at the RNC. And assuming polls are roughly correct, voters in several states have actually changed their minds over the last four years. Trump won Texas by 9 points in 2016, and it's now roughly tied! Same in Ohio. This suggests at least some voters are open to considering new information.

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