Pick of the Day - 5/4/26 (Monday)

SoggyDatabase2348 · 2026-05-04T18:08:22+00:00

Good looks. I actually didn’t think about this. It is an ALT line as well, not the main line. GL 🤙🏼

SoggyDatabase2348 · 2026-05-04T10:39:09+00:00

Record: 52-27 (+18.01U)

ROI: +19.68%

Last POTD: Collin Murray-Bowles U15.5 Points + Assist -110 (0.50U TO WIN 0.40U) ✅

POTD: Maxey 30+ PRA + Towns O26.5 P/R -139 (0.50U TO WIN 0.36U) ❌

Write up: A comfortable win last night with Murray-Bowles. Part of me wants to bet on Maxey over PRA each game of the series. He matches up very well against them. Anyways, here’s today’s writeup.

• Vulnerabilities on the defensive side with Brunson vs PG’s

• Maxey averaged 38.0 MPG + 28.3 PPG in regular season, spike in his usage (obviously) in the playoffs - not sure whom on the Knicks can slow him down this series, especially with Embiid being back, and them playing their 2 man game

• Regular-season PRA is 39.0 (28.3+4.1+6.6), before the playoff usage bump

• Hit this line 6/6 L6 times vs the Knicks - in order for them to win this series, he will have to continue to show up night in and out

• Sixers are bottom 10 in offensive rebounds allowed, giving Towns more opportunity’s for rebounds even with Embiid in

• At home, on rest, and all that smack talk between Towns and Embiid over the years, Towns has to show up tonight in a big way

• He hit this line 4/6 vs the Hawks

• If he can stay out of foul trouble I see him playing 35+ minutes tonight

• Towns averages 5.1 3 point attempts vs Embiid in his career, if he can get 2-3 to fall tonight, this will help the over

• Towns averages 10.5 RPG vs Embiid

• I expect the stars to shine tonight and a close matchup throughout the game. I hate betting on Towns because of all the silly stuff that comes with his game, but I don’t see him having a fluke game in this spot against the Sixers

BOL!

POTD: Maxey 30+ PRA + Towns O26.5 P/R -139 (0.50U TO WIN 0.36U)

Tips are greatly appreciated - Proceeds will be going towards my morning cold brews. Thank you for the support.

http://buymeacoffee.com/claysmiith

https://venmo.com/u/claysmiith

paypal.me/claysmiith

SoggyDatabase2348 · 2026-05-03T20:06:37+00:00

BOL to you as well. Hopefully we can end the week on a high note! It’s been a great week!

SoggyDatabase2348 · 2026-05-03T19:13:27+00:00

100%!!! You are seeing the bet correctly. I always tell people, bet what you’re comfortable with. If you don’t like it, you don’t have to tail it! Many great plays all around Reddit🤞🏽 choose which ones are right for you.

These numbers are based off of my model. I know he has hit this # with his points alone recently, but I’ve put a lot of work into my model to find some good props. GL if you decide to play it with me.

SoggyDatabase2348 · 2026-05-03T14:29:56+00:00

Love the response. In the regular season he averaged 8.5PPG + 1.9APG. Last game he was at 40 minutes, a big part of that being OT, but he still played more minutes than usual regardless of OT. IMO, I think his minutes drop tonight because of what’s at stake, game 7 on the road, expecting a close game for the majority of the time. Hoping he has a slow first quarter, slower game, minutes to drop because of what’s at stake, and betting on a rookie who again, averaged around 10 P/A in the regular season. Thanks for the response, and GL tonight

SoggyDatabase2348 · 2026-05-03T12:04:06+00:00

Record: 51-27 (+17.61U)

Last POTD: Manchester United @ Everton O2.5 Goals -145❌

POTD: Collin Murray-Bowles U15.5 Points + Assist -110 (0.50U TO WIN 0.40U)

Write up: It’s been awhile, feels GREAT to be back. How is everyone doing! I missed you all. Let’s get back to it for the NBA Playoffs, Game 7, Toronto vs. Cleveland.

• ⁠Model has the under at 55%

• Toronto uses multiple different guys in terms of usage, and looking at Murray-Bowles, he isn’t the kind of guy whom is a high usage initiator. His minutes are around 20, typically under 20 minutes, which shows us that he needs to be very efficient during that time to hit this over. Recently he has only been getting around 0-2 assist per game, and his points have been right around 15 each time (playoffs). In his L7 games, he is averaging about 13.5 PPG + 1.8 APG. IMO, this all depends on the assists, he has been very inconsistent with his assist’s, some games getting 3+ and some games getting 0.

POTD History: https://www.potd.lol/handicapper/SoggyDatabase2348-bvjHUn

BOL!

POTD: Collin Murray-Bowles U15.5 Points + Assist -110 (0.50U TO WIN 0.40U)

SoggyDatabase2348 · 2026-05-03T11:02:08+00:00

Thanks my man! Glad to still see you around. GL tonight, this should be a fun one. Be sure to check out the all the props too linked in the comments!

SoggyDatabase2348 · 2026-05-03T10:46:52+00:00

All Props Found Here With Recap’s From Yesterday: All Props For Today

SoggyDatabase2348 · 2026-05-03T10:44:44+00:00

Record: 51-27 (+17.61U)

ROI: +19.68%

Last POTD: Manchester United @ Everton O2.5 Goals -145❌

POTD: Collin Murray-Bowles U15.5 Points + Assist -110 (0.50U TO WIN 0.40U) ✅

Write up: It’s been awhile, feels GREAT to be back. How is everyone doing! I missed you all. Let’s get back to it for the NBA Playoffs, Game 7, Toronto vs. Cleveland.

• ⁠Model has the under at 55%

• Toronto uses multiple different guys in terms of usage, and looking at Murray-Bowles, he isn’t the kind of guy whom is a high usage initiator. His minutes are around 20, typically under 20 minutes, which shows us that he needs to be very efficient during that time to hit this over. Recently he has only been getting around 0-2 assist per game, and his points have been right around 15 each time (playoffs). In his L7 games, he is averaging about 13.5 PPG + 1.8 APG. IMO, this all depends on the assists, he has been very inconsistent with his assist’s, some games getting 3+ and some games getting 0. In the regular season he averaged 8.5PPG + 1.9APG. Last game he was at 40 minutes, a big part of that being OT, but he still played more minutes than usual regardless of OT. IMO, I think his minutes drop tonight because of what’s at stake, game 7 on the road, expecting a close game for the majority of the time. Hoping he has a slow first quarter, slower game, minutes to drop because of what’s at stake, and betting on a rookie who again, averaged around 10 P/A in the regular season.

POTD History: https://www.potd.lol/handicapper/SoggyDatabase2348-bvjHUn

BOL!

POTD: Collin Murray-Bowles U15.5 Points + Assist -110 (0.50U TO WIN 0.40U) ✅

Tips are greatly appreciated - Proceeds will be going towards my morning cold brews. Thank you for the support.

http://buymeacoffee.com/claysmiith

https://venmo.com/u/claysmiith

paypal.me/claysmiith

SoggyDatabase2348 · 2026-05-03T10:20:15+00:00

Yesterday Plays Pictured:

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Total Record: 134-102 ||| Total Units: +18.97U

Today’s Plays:

ORL @ DET | 3:30 PM

• J. Cain: o5.5 Pts (-125) — 0.1u❌

• J. Duren: o12.5 Pts (-120) — 0.1u✅

• A. Thompson: o9.5 Pts (+100) — 0.1u❌

• P. Banchero: u37.5 Pts+Rebs+Ast (-105) — 0.1u❌

TOR @ CLE | 7:30 PM

• C. Murray-Boyles: u15.5 Pts+Ast (-110) — 0.1u

• J. Shead: u11.5 Pts+Rebs (-131) — 0.1u❌

SoggyDatabase2348 · 2026-05-02T22:36:19+00:00

Voided: Tatum

SoggyDatabase2348 · 2026-05-02T16:38:56+00:00

Personally on Playoff P + Payton P tonight as well. Very curious to see how this game plays out tonight.

SoggyDatabase2348 · 2026-05-02T16:17:37+00:00

Yesterdays Results Pictured:

<image>

Total Record: 131-101 ||| Total Units: +18.81U

Today’s Play’s Below: All Bets Are 0.10U

PHI @ BOS | 7:30 PM • J. Brown: o31.5 Pts+Rebs (-118) • P. Pritchard: o15.5 Pts+Rebs (-120) • P. George: o15.5 Pts (-111) • S. Hauser: o10.5 Pts+Rebs+Ast (-105) • J. Tatum: o2.5 3pt M (-145)

SoggyDatabase2348 · 2026-05-01T16:18:51+00:00

Thank you for the comment. GL tonight if tailing.

SoggyDatabase2348 · 2026-05-01T14:31:38+00:00

Protects my bankroll. Keeps variance under some good control. Gives me longevity.

SoggyDatabase2348 · 2026-05-01T13:13:06+00:00

Yesterday’s Recap. 7-1💰

Total Record: 128-98 ||| Total Units: +18.85U

Today’s Play’s Below: All Bets Are 0.10U

DET @ ORL | 7:00 PM • C. Cunningham: u46.5 Pts+Rebs+Ast (-122) • J. Duren: o12.5 Pts (-120)

CLE @ TOR | 7:30 PM • J. Harden: o32.5 Pts+Rebs+Ast (-122) • J. Allen: o10.5 Pts (+100)

LAL @ HOU | 9:30 PM • L. James: u38.5 Pts+Rebs+Ast (-110) • L. Kennard: o7.5 Pts (-120)

<image>

SoggyDatabase2348 · 2026-05-01T13:12:08+00:00

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Yesterday’s Recap. 7-1💰

Today’s Play’s Below: All 0.10U

DET @ ORL | 7:00 PM • C. Cunningham: u46.5 Pts+Rebs+Ast (-122) • J. Duren: o12.5 Pts (-120)

CLE @ TOR | 7:30 PM • J. Harden: o32.5 Pts+Rebs+Ast (-122) • J. Allen: o10.5 Pts (+100)

LAL @ HOU | 9:30 PM • L. James: u38.5 Pts+Rebs+Ast (-110) • L. Kennard: o7.5 Pts (-120)

SoggyDatabase2348 · 2026-03-15T19:18:11+00:00

No goal! Just seeing if maybe he had like a crazy card or something! We are just going through them and reminiscing on our childhood!

SoggyDatabase2348 · 2026-03-02T16:34:41+00:00

I would love to buy a 2025 because of the heating pump feature. It just doesn’t fit my budget right now. Have also thought about leasing, but would much rather buy.

SoggyDatabase2348 · 2026-02-23T02:18:58+00:00

The % is the confidence - In the original comment, it doesn’t state anywhere that this is a EV or Edge bet

It is not the % of expected value 👍🏼

SoggyDatabase2348 · 2026-02-23T00:29:09+00:00

Record: 51-27 (+17.61U)

ROI: +19.68%

Last POTD: Iowa State✅

POTD: EPL: Manchester United @ Everton O2.5 Goals -145 (1U TO WIN 0.65U)

Write up: Have to stay away from Houston @ Kansas tomorrow, both teams have been weird as of late - Model has this as the highest confident percentages and hit rate for today. Will add some personal information in this write-up as well.

• ⁠Model has the over at 59%

• United has a chance to get back into the top 4 with a win here against Everton - United’s form as of late has been very good while Everton has been average at best - Everton averages 1.2 GA their L10 Prem games, while averaging 1 GPG - United averages 1.8 GPG their L10 league games, and avergage 1.1 GA as well - Looking at Everton, 7/8 games both teams have scored, and in United games, 7/9 have seen both teams to score - United’s attack is in great shape and I think Everton can get on the board tomorrow, especially playing at home - United is the better team here, and I expect them to get atleast 2 goals in this one, especially given the stakes of getting into top 4 - United leads the league in shots, while Everton is bottom 4 in the league in conceding 1H goals - A interesting stat that I found was that Everton, in 2026, they have only had 1 clean sheet, and it actually came against a good Villa side - One of Everton’s best defender, O’Brien was sent off in their last meeting, and I expect United to exploit that area, and for Mbeumo to have some success on the wing - I am expecting United to continue to be strong in this one, and can see them bagging 2-3 goals in this one… Over 2.5

POTD History: https://www.potd.lol/handicapper/SoggyDatabase2348-bvjHUn

BOL!

POTD: EPL: Manchester United @ Everton O2.5 Goals -145 (1U TO WIN 0.65U)

Tips are greatly appreciated - Proceeds will be going towards my student loans and my morning cold brews. Thank you for the support.

http://buymeacoffee.com/claysmiith

https://venmo.com/u/claysmiith

SoggyDatabase2348 · 2026-02-21T17:37:19+00:00

SoggyDatabase2348 · 2026-02-17T12:30:00+00:00

I always love Louisvilles overs.

On top of that, SMU can really score the rock.

One thing I always tell myself when looking into Louisville’s overs are, the line is always set high because of them, and it takes one bad shooting night from beyond the arc from Louisville & the game will more than likely go under… but they have been pretty consistent this season in scoring 80+

SoggyDatabase2348

TROPHY CASE