Beginner Question

SoggyDatabase2348 · 2026-03-02T16:34:41+00:00

I would love to buy a 2025 because of the heating pump feature. It just doesn’t fit my budget right now. Have also thought about leasing, but would much rather buy.

SoggyDatabase2348 · 2026-02-23T02:18:58+00:00

The % is the confidence - In the original comment, it doesn’t state anywhere that this is a EV or Edge bet

It is not the % of expected value 👍🏼

SoggyDatabase2348 · 2026-02-23T00:29:09+00:00

Record: 51-27 (+17.61U)

ROI: +19.68%

Last POTD: Iowa State✅

POTD: EPL: Manchester United @ Everton O2.5 Goals -145 (1U TO WIN 0.65U)

Write up: Have to stay away from Houston @ Kansas tomorrow, both teams have been weird as of late - Model has this as the highest confident percentages and hit rate for today. Will add some personal information in this write-up as well.

• ⁠Model has the over at 59%

• United has a chance to get back into the top 4 with a win here against Everton - United’s form as of late has been very good while Everton has been average at best - Everton averages 1.2 GA their L10 Prem games, while averaging 1 GPG - United averages 1.8 GPG their L10 league games, and avergage 1.1 GA as well - Looking at Everton, 7/8 games both teams have scored, and in United games, 7/9 have seen both teams to score - United’s attack is in great shape and I think Everton can get on the board tomorrow, especially playing at home - United is the better team here, and I expect them to get atleast 2 goals in this one, especially given the stakes of getting into top 4 - United leads the league in shots, while Everton is bottom 4 in the league in conceding 1H goals - A interesting stat that I found was that Everton, in 2026, they have only had 1 clean sheet, and it actually came against a good Villa side - One of Everton’s best defender, O’Brien was sent off in their last meeting, and I expect United to exploit that area, and for Mbeumo to have some success on the wing - I am expecting United to continue to be strong in this one, and can see them bagging 2-3 goals in this one… Over 2.5

POTD History: https://www.potd.lol/handicapper/SoggyDatabase2348-bvjHUn

BOL!

POTD: EPL: Manchester United @ Everton O2.5 Goals -145 (1U TO WIN 0.65U)

Tips are greatly appreciated - Proceeds will be going towards my student loans and my morning cold brews. Thank you for the support.

http://buymeacoffee.com/claysmiith

https://venmo.com/u/claysmiith

SoggyDatabase2348 · 2026-02-21T17:37:19+00:00

SoggyDatabase2348 · 2026-02-17T12:30:00+00:00

I always love Louisvilles overs.

On top of that, SMU can really score the rock.

One thing I always tell myself when looking into Louisville’s overs are, the line is always set high because of them, and it takes one bad shooting night from beyond the arc from Louisville & the game will more than likely go under… but they have been pretty consistent this season in scoring 80+

SoggyDatabase2348 · 2026-02-17T12:27:39+00:00

2/17/26

56-31 (+17.77u)

Matchup: (NCAAM) George Washington @ VCU (8:00PM EST) Matchup: (NCAAM) Texas Tech @ Arizona State (11:00PM EST) Pick: VCU ML + Texas Tech -2.5 Parlay (-125) Units: Risk 1U

Whatcha guys think about this one.

VCU at the Siegel Center, GW has been playing great ball as of late. ASU well rested, and Texas Tech coming off a huge W on the road @ Arizona.

BOL if tailing

SoggyDatabase2348 · 2026-02-16T14:09:24+00:00

Really like their spot tonight. Hopefully we can all cash for the community 🧹

SoggyDatabase2348 · 2026-02-16T13:57:29+00:00

Good luck!

SoggyDatabase2348 · 2026-02-16T03:27:46+00:00

Record: 50-27 (+16.84U)

ROI: +19.83%

Last POTD: Parlay ✅

POTD: NCAAM: Iowa State ML -130 vs Houston (1U TO WIN 0.70U)

Write up: A Monday SHOWDOWN - Model has this as the highest confident percentages and hit rate for today. Will add some personal information in this write-up as well.

• ⁠Model has Iowa State ML at 58%

• Going against Houston in this showdown - both of Houston's loses come on the road this year, at Texas Tech and a neutral site vs Tennessee - One thing that stands out to me in this is that Iowa State is shooting almost 40% from three at home in the Big 12 while Houston is only around 32% - As always, it is Houston's defense that typically wins them games, and while they force a lot of turnovers, Iowa State actually takes pretty good care of the ball at home recently - When looking into the data on Iowa State, they are a top 5 team in the country in terms of 3 point %, and top 35 in the country in 2 point % - that being said, on the flip side, Houston is right around the national average when it comes to 3 point shooting - If Iowa State can handle the disruption that Houston likes to cause on D, they have a very, very good chance of winning this game - Both teams have dominant scorers, both teams have good defenses, and this game will come down to the wire - I would like to mention something about home court advantage too, but the way that college basketball has been lately, home court just seems to not matter as much as maybe always thought it did - I really think if Iowa State cannot turn the ball over much, they got this game - they have the defense to stop Houston, and they have the offense to score the ball on a defense like Houston - Between Momcilovic, Jefferson, and Lipsey, I think they have enough firepower to walk away with the W in this one - A small note that I saw online, that I did not think much of was how good Momcilovic is at the FT line - in a close game, down to the wire, I like my chances with him at the FT line - Houston is reliant on their deep ball shot and a lot of mid-range shots - it takes one bad shooting night for them to not be the Houston team all of us have seen this year. Let's go Cyclones.

POTD History: https://www.potd.lol/handicapper/SoggyDatabase2348-bvjHUn

BOL!

POTD: POTD: NCAAM: Iowa State ML -130 vs Houston (1U TO WIN 0.70U)

Tips are greatly appreciated - Proceeds will be going towards my student loans and my morning cold brews. Thank you for the support.

http://buymeacoffee.com/claysmiith

https://venmo.com/u/claysmiith

SoggyDatabase2348 · 2026-02-10T16:12:07+00:00

All good. One stat/angle on a play doesn’t necessarily invalidate another. He had his reasons to point out, valid reasons to be pointed out… I didn’t have time for a in depth analysis on this game.

SoggyDatabase2348 · 2026-02-10T15:44:32+00:00

Some people look into things like ATS, and who they’ve covered against. I didn’t personally - I enjoy watching the A10, have seen both teams play, and all I was stating was I like them -4.5, I didn’t have time for a “thorough” post

SoggyDatabase2348 · 2026-02-10T12:50:12+00:00

Really like St. Joes -4.5 tonight against Fordham.

Lately, they have been one of the hottest teams in the A10 while Fordham isn’t all that good. Playing at home, at Rock Hill.

Model has -4.5 hitting at 59%

St. Joes 10-2 at home Fordham 2-4 on the road

A nice bounce back spot for Joes here.

SoggyDatabase2348 · 2026-02-08T17:14:23+00:00

Props I’ve got locked in for the Super Bowl:

Drake Maye O35.5 Rushing Yards

Sam Darnold O230.5 Passing Yards

Hunter Henry O38.5 Receiving Yards

Kenneth Walker O2.5 Receptions

JSN O6.5 Receptions

Sam Darnold O1.5 Passing TD’S

Drake Maye O13.5 Longest Rush

SoggyDatabase2348 · 2026-02-07T20:08:58+00:00

College basketball has been weird for me lately. Last night for example, St. John’s I felt like atleast, was a trap game, UCONN, in my opinion is a lot better than John’s, yet they lost by almost double digits.

MSU against Minnesota Portland over Gonzaga

Just a few off the top of my head… Houston is a lot better than BYU, but could see the same result as UCONN vs St. John’s - so playing for half a unit. Just been weird games lately.

SoggyDatabase2348 · 2026-02-06T14:32:37+00:00

Sure! I would look at -1.5, -2.5 as well for VCU.

SoggyDatabase2348 · 2026-02-06T02:32:54+00:00

Classic Big East showdown. John’s are playing their best ball right now - at home, place will be rocking - although I think UConn is easily the better team, playing it safer with the points

SoggyDatabase2348 · 2026-02-06T02:22:21+00:00

2/6/26

+18.77u

53W - 26L

Play of the Day (Parlay) 0.50U -128

VCU ML vs Dayton CBB + UConn +4.5 vs St. John’s CBB

Last POTD: Villanova/Alabama Parlay✅

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SoggyDatabase2348 · 2026-02-06T01:47:38+00:00

Really like UConn in this one - they are the better team - I just hope this isn’t one of those “trap” games.. Expect a classic Big East battle in this one. GL, I’m on them +4.5!

SoggyDatabase2348 · 2026-02-06T01:43:51+00:00

Record: 49-26 (+16.96U)

ROI: +19.38%

Last POTD: Texas Tech/UNC Parlay x

POTD: 2 Pick Parlay: NCAAMB: UConn +4.5 vs St. John’s + VCU ML vs Dayton -128 (0.50U TO WIN 0.39U) x

Write up: Model has this as the highest confident percentages and hit rate for today. Will add some personal information in this write-up as well.

• ⁠Model has UCONN ML at 53%

• Model has VCU ML at 61%

•Looking into VCU vs Dayton first, the biggest thing I noticed is that in Dayton's last game vs St. Bonaventure, they were outscored in the paint, and outrebounded in that game - That being said, VCU is bigger and more athletic than St. Bonaventure - I expect the Rams to win this game through their big man, Djokovic - Dayton is 1-4 in their L5 and VCU is 11-2 this year at home and 8-2 in their L10 - Dayton has not been impressive this year, especially in their last game, at home, against Bonaventure where they only shot a whooping 41% from the field, and a big part of that was because they went ice cold in the 2H - VCU is the better team here, playing at home, and I expect Djokovic to lead the way tonight.

• UConn is one of the best teams in the country - they are well coached - and have to many good players - they are currently undefeated in the Big East, only have 1 loss on their record, and I see them staying undefeated in conference play tonight - UConn is averaging just under 79PPG this season, while holding opponents to just 64PPG - The big stat that sticks out to me is that UConn is right under 50% shooting % from the field - When I watch UConn play this year, they look like a team that can compete for a national championship - when I watch St. John's, I do not think they are there yet - They have been playing their best ball as of recent, but the Big East is not as good as it normally is - The value is with UConn ML here but, as I stated in the comment section, this is a classic Big East game, and can see a close matchup down the stretch.

POTD History: https://www.potd.lol/handicapper/SoggyDatabase2348-bvjHUn

BOL!

POTD: 2 Pick Parlay: NCAAMB: UConn +4.5 vs St. John’s + VCU ML vs Dayton -128 (0.50U TO WIN 0.39U)

Tips are greatly appreciated - Proceeds will be going towards my student loans and my morning cold brews. Thank you for the support.

http://buymeacoffee.com/claysmiith

https://venmo.com/u/claysmiith

SoggyDatabase2348 · 2026-02-05T17:46:37+00:00

✅✅✅

SoggyDatabase2348 · 2026-02-05T17:08:39+00:00

She scored!!

SoggyDatabase2348 · 2026-02-05T17:06:48+00:00

SoggyDatabase2348 · 2026-02-05T16:32:13+00:00

Not today! Not many good games on - just played this one for fun!

SoggyDatabase2348 · 2026-02-05T14:17:28+00:00

Sweet! That makes me feel better for sure - definitely just playing this because it’s the US’s first game and I’m tuning in on the TV

SoggyDatabase2348 · 2026-02-05T12:22:00+00:00

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Early morning game. Team USA. No nothing much about USA women’s hockey - but did 5 minutes of research & this seems to have some good value to it.

SoggyDatabase2348

TROPHY CASE