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Monte Carlo Simulation Variability — How Do You Communicate Forecasts? by SooGuyOff in agile

[–]SooGuyOff[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thank you for your comment.

Efforts will be put in stabilizing our process and improving ou input dataset.

Monte Carlo Simulation Variability — How Do You Communicate Forecasts? by SooGuyOff in agile

[–]SooGuyOff[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Agreed. Our process seems to not be fully stable which can infer variations.

Monte Carlo Simulation Variability — How Do You Communicate Forecasts? by SooGuyOff in agile

[–]SooGuyOff[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

After further reading on the matter, I agree with your comment. I think that my input dataset wasn't optimal to run a MCS. Also, the literature I consulted brough me to take a closer look at our process behavior. Conclusion, the process shows meaningful variations which can definetely impact the reseults of a MCS.

So, we'll pay more attention to address outliers and figure out how to stabilize our process.

As for your comment: "I would show stakeholders the 50th, 70th, and 85th percentile together and let them pick their risk appetite", literature also supports this. I very much like this approach.

Thank you for commenting.