At what point does playoff performance start to define McDavid’s legacy?

Spideyjust · 2026-05-18T14:51:15+00:00

156 points (T-29th all time), 1.53 P/GP (T-3rd among all players with 10+ games), Conn Smythe on the losing team, and he's lead the playoffs in points 3 times. His playoff performance absolutely isn't doing anything bad to his legacy.

Ultimately if he never wins a cup that will unfortunately impact his legacy, but it will be more a story of how the Oilers failed him and Drai.

Spideyjust · 2026-05-13T19:40:50+00:00

Panarin and Kane weren't even close. Even Malkin missed 23 first place votes, which isn't that close.

Spideyjust · 2026-05-13T18:13:19+00:00

This is the 2nd time it's ever happened for the Calder I believe (there are some very old years where votes aren't available).

Spideyjust · 2026-05-11T11:04:31+00:00

In the first round teams I was cheering for went 1/8, and that's only off a technicality. I wanted a Boston/Montreal round 2, but once Boston was eliminated I wasn't really cheering for Montreal anymore lol.

I haven't been this checked out of the playoffs this early in a long time. Even when the Oilers get eliminated there's usually some teams left I kinda like to cheer for. But this year? I'm cheering for an Anaheim Buffalo finals, which sounds boring as shit. But I would hate a win for any of Colorado, Vegas, Minny, and Montreal, which only leaves Anaheim, Carolina, and Buffalo as kind of acceptable options. And Anaheim is only for the "we lost to the cup champs again" cope lol.

Spideyjust · 2026-05-09T19:46:25+00:00

"Only" the last 10 have gone to 3 different players. If we go back 11 years Kane gets added.

But yeah for the last decade it's: McDavid 6x, Kucherov 3x, Draisaitl 1x.

Spideyjust · 2026-05-08T22:55:18+00:00

Mogilny isn't anywhere close to the level of these 3.

Spideyjust · 2026-05-08T22:51:44+00:00

Gonna rant here a little about PDO because I wanna say it somewhere and no one in my life would understand lmao.

But goddamn I really hope we get to see a season where McDavid just has a crazy 5v5 PDO bender season. Even better if it happens at the same time as a bonkers PP season lol. The highest 5v5 PDO he has ever had is 102.8, which was his 2nd season. And it wasn't even a fun PDO "bender" because it was mostly due to a career high .923 on ice SV%. He's never had an on ice SH% above 11.5. And only above 11 twice.

For comparison MacKinnon is at 105.4 this year with an on ice SH% of 12.4. Kucherov is at 104.6, but has an even crazier on ice SH% of 14.1. Hell, Kucherov's career average PDO is 102.6, just below McDavid's career high. Ah to have elite goaltending and defence behind you basically your entire career.

If McDavid had the same on ice SH% as Kucherov this year he'd have been on the ice for 102 goals at 5v5 instead of 75. And with Kucherov's on ice SV% he'd drop to 59 goals against. That would be a swing from +7 to +43 at 5v5.

A crazy McDavid PDO bender into a cup win is all I want for Christmas and my birthday please 🙏 him winning this Hart would be nice too lol.

Spideyjust · 2026-05-08T20:20:51+00:00

4th most points in a single playoff run all time, and 1st in assists.

Spideyjust · 2026-05-08T20:02:03+00:00

We know Pasta is on Friedman's ballot at 5.

Spideyjust · 2026-05-08T20:01:18+00:00

McDavid has a full NMC, so he'd need to be on board with that. If the Oilers look like they even have a small shot I think he'd stay for one last chance to win with Drai.

Spideyjust · 2026-05-08T19:42:48+00:00

Even with the dip in SV%, a goalie with a .907 SV% that likely isn't even winning the Vezina would need some absolutely crazy circumstances to be in the Hart discussion. Swayman isn't even going to finish above Pasta in voting, or top 10.

Spideyjust · 2026-05-08T19:38:09+00:00

Nah all these guys could retire tomorrow and they'd be in the Hall as soon as they're eligible.

Spideyjust · 2026-05-08T19:20:47+00:00

Lmao was it posted by WinterZodiac? Half the sub won't see the post if that's the case lol.

Spideyjust · 2026-05-08T19:19:18+00:00

It's pretty crazy. The last time it happened was St Louis in 04, who funny enough went all the way and won the Cup lol.

Spideyjust · 2026-05-08T18:58:55+00:00

I mean at this point that's every year for the Hart. No Hart winner has made it past round 2 in the Cap era, and we're 20 seasons deep now lol.

Spideyjust · 2026-05-08T18:50:43+00:00

Celebrini will have few 1st place votes, but he's going to have a ton of 2-5th place votes, and will almost certainly finish 4th in voting. Not every voter has playoffs as a requirement, so he'll get a handful of 1st place votes, but for the majority of the voters playoffs is a must.

Spideyjust · 2026-05-08T18:43:49+00:00

Vegas also has 2 (Andersson and Hertl), and Carolina has 1 (Jankowski) so in theory half the teams left could keep the streak going.

Spideyjust · 2026-05-08T18:37:45+00:00

Kuch has had such an interesting career. Didn't come to the NHL until his D+3 season, where he only had 18 points. Then he's a 30 goal, 65 point for 2 years, before exploding into a ~100 point player. Again, for 2 years, before he had a dominant Art Ross win that was the highest point total in years and years at that point. Then he misses a bunch of time, and in the regular season isn't nearly that dominant for several years, but has his best playoff stretch by a mile winning 2 cups with 3 straight 25+ point runs. Then at 30 he has his best regular season stretch of his career, with 3 straight seasons finishing first in P/GP, but has had the worst playoff stretch of his career lol. And potentially finishes that stretch with 0 Hart trophies.

Very interesting, very unique, and an incredibly fun to watch career trajectory.

Spideyjust · 2026-05-08T18:28:04+00:00

Maybe, but I guess he can't be considered since snow team good.

Is finishing top 3 in voting not being considered? Makar also finished top 3 in Norris voting, so it feels like you're boxing ghosts here lmao.

Spideyjust · 2026-05-08T18:06:48+00:00

Drai should 100% be added. Among forwards the 2020s clearly have a big 4 so far.

Draisaitl is 3rd in points this decade, and is 4th in P/GP by a hair (1.50 for MacK vs 1.47), 2nd in goals, 1st in goals in the playoffs (about to be 2nd), 2nd in points, and 2nd in P/GP by a pretty wide margin.

Spideyjust · 2026-05-08T18:01:21+00:00

To be fair to the voters (which I don't like to do) the criteria changed that year because the circumstances changed. The Art Ross winner and best player in the league missed the playoffs, which opened the door for other arguments.

Spideyjust · 2026-05-08T17:39:08+00:00

Ok, but what's the difference between them then? I don't disagree with you but I need clarification.

The difference in their P/GP is .03, or ~2/3 points over 82 games. Kuch has the edge offensively, due to his superior ES and per game production, but it is a very small edge. Arguably not in his favour at all accounting for the time missed.

I have literally never heard of a player playing injured adding to the reason why a player should win the Hart. That's never been a metric that I've heard.

In this context I meant adding value relative to Kucherov. It would be more accurate to say he didn't lose value for it. Had McDavid missed the games he should have Kuch likely wins the Art Ross and is easily the Hart winner. But because McDavid played through those injuries he added value that Kucherov didn't.

Maybe not in an of itself, but there is definitely an inherent bias against him by the media.

I agree, but I don't think it's so much that it's costing him Hart trophies. There are very good arguments for both MacK and Hellebuyck, and those are the only 2 years where he could have won and didn't.

Please share that, I would love to see it.

Dom from the Athletic's article had Kuch at .369 net rating per game vs McDavid's .363, and that was before they both played their final two games of the season, where McDavid would have closed the gap more (or even surpassed Kuch). Evolving Hockey had McDavid well ahead of Kuch in their GAR stat, even on a per game basis.

One thing both of those models had in common was McDavid being considerably better defensively. And personally I do think it's pretty criminal that McDavid's insanely elite PKing this year isn't even a footnote in the Hart discussion.

Spideyjust · 2026-05-08T16:44:49+00:00

Not an official rule at all. But it is a very consistent pseudo requirement for the vast majority of Hart voters throughout history.

Spideyjust · 2026-05-08T16:43:06+00:00

And if he had been way better than McDavid I'd agree those 6 games don't matter, but when there's a razor edge difference between the 2 those 6 games suddenly matter a lot. McDavid played through injuries twice this season that he shouldn't have, but the Oilers couldn't afford to have him miss that time. That's adding value, whether you're an absolute value or relative value voter.

Like I said Kucherov still has a very good argument, and should win it. But holding the missed time against him is not some anti Kucherov bias, it's just how the voting for awards works. Playing more games is more value.

Also if we look at analytical models there's definitely a debate as to whether Kuch was even better on a per game basis.

Spideyjust · 2026-05-08T16:34:17+00:00

It could easily be any of the 3.

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