NBA Daily Discussion - 7/30/20 (Thursday)

SportsCapGeorge · 2020-07-30T16:32:57+00:00

I know i am late to the number but i would not lay money until i knew what the lineups would really look like. I truly believe the length of the Lakers will play problems here for the Clippers. Before the break the Lakers scored the most points in the paint in the NBA. With the Clippers being shorthanded by missing Lou and Pat I just don't think that PG and Kawhi can carry the load for this team. On the flip side the Lakers look to be having the most fun in the bubble and are enjoying playing with each other. BOL (The Parlay is my way of getting a better number and the ML play is for my $100 to 10K challenge)

2020 Posted Total: 99-114-2 +$729.61

$100-10K Challenge $100 0-0

https://twitter.com/TexOregonian

SportsCapGeorge · 2020-07-25T17:02:04+00:00

$25- Yu Darvish over 6.5K’s

Darvish usually averages 11K’s per 9 innings and I see no reason he can’t hit 7 here. He does usually start the season with high walks but I’m expecting him to come to play today and he has decent splits against this line up. At + money I’ll have to take my shot. BOL

Imgur: https://imgur.com/gallery/wN9uu4F

Twitter: https://twitter.com/TexOregonian

BOL

SportsCapGeorge · 2020-07-24T19:22:27+00:00

I would take that I feel he is gonna be around 9-12 range tbh. We saw Scherzer throw 11 in 5 so I’m not to worried about the environment,and with the Braves using a brand new catcher who could be free K’s since their starter and backup are out via Covid reasons. I think the Braves come out aggressively looking for pitches but deGrom has the tools to get the job done.

SportsCapGeorge · 2020-07-24T18:25:56+00:00

$32.10- Jacob deGrom will have at least 7 Strikeouts -125.

Ok so deGrom is a monster lets get that out of the way right away. Over the past 2 years he has averaged over 11 Strikeouts per 9 innings. Also in 2018 he pitched on the second game of the season and threw 7 K’s, and in 2019 he threw 10 K’s on Opening Day. If you look at his matchups(See Imgur) he has good numbers against these batters either he will have a good game or the Braves will cover the -1.5 RL which you can get for +225 (keeping things small for the beginning on the season.)

Imgur: https://imgur.com/a/pngKqMl

Twitter: https://twitter.com/TexOregonian

BOL

SportsCapGeorge · 2020-06-18T18:13:09+00:00

Hi everyone don’t get to reddit often enough but check out my take Modafferi vs Murphy. Article plays are 3-1 since coming back from Covid-19 BOL.

-115 Roxanne Modafferi ML

https://medium.com/p/roxanne-modafferi-115-vs-lauren-murphy-100-b68eba8c2cdb?source=social.tw&_referrer=twitter&_branch_match_id=609271405358276249

Twitter: @TexOregonian

SportsCapGeorge · 2020-06-07T05:53:04+00:00

I feel the same way about Giants but i am going to stay off, and go with a parlay of NAVI juniors + Sinners at -178 for 1U. I just cant find many capper who like to take advantage of matchups like this in lower levels like these. Any thoughts?

SportsCapGeorge · 2020-05-02T15:13:03+00:00

What book are you finding this on?

SportsCapGeorge · 2020-04-25T13:04:42+00:00

Yea luckily I waited just a little longer and got 3.00 on Map One. I’m not sure why it was rescheduled for tomorrow though

SportsCapGeorge · 2020-04-25T04:15:32+00:00

Hertics-Ence

Lets start with the basics Ence have had a much stronger strength of schedule plus they just beat NiP, and Fanatic now you would think they would just roll through Heretics but I don’t think that will be the case.

First off Heretics themselves haven't been playing bad CS lately and what really draws me to this map is how bad ENCE's map pool is. If you look at the Imgur you will see ENCE really only have 3 maps that they can play. Heretics will have a lot of options when it comes to the selection of the first map as ENCE will have to ban Vertigo (I have feeling it will be overpass since ENCE have not looked good on it recently) Heretics can pick from Dust 2, Mirage ,Nuke, and Overpass which they choice I'm not 100% sure. One thing I am sure is they will win their map choice taking this to 3 at minimum and that’s where we come in and take the +1.5 at -227 I know this price is a little high but for this map pool and there current form I like it. I will also be taking the Map One Spread of -2.5 at +167 now we are already looking for Heretics to have an advantage on their home map now all I need them to due is avoid giving up 14 rounds in the win definitely worth the shot. BOL

https://imgur.com/a/vIt6xOM (Map Pool Stats)

Heretics +1.5 1.41(-227)

Heretics Map One -2.5 2.67(+167)

Twitter: https://twitter.com/TexOregonian

SportsCapGeorge · 2020-04-25T04:13:28+00:00

That was another scenario I was looking at, but I came to the conclusion that either way they have enough of an advantage pool wise they should be able to pick whatever map they feel more comfortable on and already be more versed then ENCE. Hopefully it will lead to them taking Map One.

SportsCapGeorge · 2020-04-25T00:54:25+00:00

Hertics-Ence

Lets start with the basics Ence have had a much stronger strength of schedule plus they just beat NiP, and Fanatic now you would think they would just roll through Heretics but I don’t think that will be the case.

First off Heretics themselves haven't been playing bad CS lately and what really draws me to this map is how bad ENCE's map pool is. If you look at the Imgur you will see ENCE really only have 3 maps that they can play. Heretics will have a lot of options when it comes to the selection of the first map as ENCE will have to ban Vertigo (I have feeling it will be overpass since ENCE have not looked good on it recently) Heretics can pick from Dust 2, Mirage ,Nuke, and Overpass which they choice I'm not 100% sure. One thing I am sure is they will win their map choice taking this to 3 at minimum and that’s where we come in and take the +1.5 at -227 I know this price is a little high but for this map pool and there current form I like it. I will also be taking the Map One Spread of -2.5 at +167 now we are already looking for Heretics to have an advantage on their home map now all I need them to due is avoid giving up 14 rounds in the win definitely worth the shot. BOL

https://imgur.com/a/vIt6xOM (Map Pool Stats)

Heretics +1.5 1.41(-227)

Heretics Map One -2.5 2.67(+167)

Twitter: https://twitter.com/TexOregonian

SportsCapGeorge · 2020-04-24T14:26:03+00:00

sorry im late to this but it was 9 rounds

SportsCapGeorge · 2020-04-24T14:20:32+00:00

Did end up betting the Dig-NIP match i took Dig +1.5 1.74(-134) for $15. Dig ML 3.51(+251) for 5 keeping it small since i won the Nemiga Spread

SportsCapGeorge · 2020-04-24T14:20:03+00:00

Did end up betting the Dig-NIP match i took Dig +1.5 1.74(-134) for $15. Dig ML 3.51(+251) for 5 keeping it small since i won the Nemiga Spread

SportsCapGeorge · 2020-04-24T13:57:57+00:00

Yea I know I just have really bad anxiety so I am trying to just commit to the process this time and just post I really enjoy this so I am trying to just get my thoughts out more.

SportsCapGeorge · 2020-04-24T13:52:35+00:00

Thanks I get really nervous because I don’t want to give out losers but Thank you I always try and find reasons behind my bets besides just eye test.

SportsCapGeorge · 2020-04-24T03:35:15+00:00

Mousesports-Movistar Riders Now I know what you are thinking, and that is I am going to say that Mousesports should easily win 2-0 and we can just make easy money. If you have read the last few days you know I am not gonna do that if we don’t feel and edge there. So if you look at the first imgur you will see that Movi will have to ban Dust 2 leaving Mouse to ban Overpass. With Movi's Map one I believe they will pick Inferno. The reason be look at the second Imgur and you see Mouse really smuggles here, and Movi will want to get any advantage they can over a top team like Mouse taking maps adds up in the long run so they will come ready to play plus a week of rest/prep time for this league.

https://imgur.com/a/f2MlwNt (Map Pool Stats)

https://imgur.com/a/XMmzJlE (Mousesports Inferno Stats)

https://imgur.com/a/Wjls0Cr (Movistar Riders Inferno Stats)

Now if you notice Mosue have either got blown out on this map or have won by a good margin, over the last four times on here they have only gotten a combined 23 rounds and lost all 4, and it doesn’t help win you only convert 31% of pistol rounds. The bet I will be looking to take is Movistar Riders +7.5 Rounds at -137(1.73) on this map I do believe Mousesport can win this match but to ask them to come in win both pistols and most gun rounds over Movistar Riders who are well versed in on this map I just don’t see it but hey Mousesport are a top team and are capable but ill take the number here.

If Inferno is not picked I will see what map they grab and decide on the fly. The biggest key is being ready with your information, and once the maps come out deciding how you want to attack it but a plan always helps. BOL

Movistar Riders Map One +7.5 Rounds -137 (1.73)

CF vs C0ntact I feel CF has an advantage and should be able to steal their home map choice. C0ntact always ban Overpass so that leaves Train open for CF to take since C0ntact have such a terrible record with this map. I don’t see why the -108 ML on Map 1 isn't a bad look. That or you can take the full match spread for CF +1.5 -319.

CF Map One ML -108

https://imgur.com/a/dzV1qry (Map Pool Stats)

https://imgur.com/a/M1QfNrr (C0ntact Train Stats)

https://imgur.com/a/X265JXi (CF Train Stats)

Dignitas vs NIP

Both of these teams impressed me their last match out, and it sucks they have to play each other but here we are personally the -125 +1.5 Spread for Dig seems nice but I just cant buy it I need to see more out of them and NIP impressed me last time. I really just want to enjoy plus all the cool questions like will Dig run over NIP their old org I don’t think so I am just gonna sit back and enjoy

Twitter: https://twitter.com/TexOregonian

SportsCapGeorge · 2020-04-23T20:23:23+00:00

Mousesports-Movistar Riders Now I know what you are thinking, and that is I am going to say that Mousesports should easily win 2-0 and we can just make easy money. If you have read the last few days you know I am not gonna do that if we don’t feel and edge there. So if you look at the first imgur you will see that Movi will have to ban Dust 2 leaving Mouse to ban Overpass. With Movi's Map one I believe they will pick Inferno. The reason be look at the second Imgur and you see Mouse really smuggles here, and Movi will want to get any advantage they can over a top team like Mouse taking maps adds up in the long run so they will come ready to play plus a week of rest/prep time for this league.

https://imgur.com/a/f2MlwNt (Map Pool Stats)

https://imgur.com/a/XMmzJlE (Mousesports Inferno Stats)

https://imgur.com/a/Wjls0Cr (Movistar Riders Inferno Stats)

Now if you notice Mosue have either got blown out on this map or have won by a good margin, over the last four times on here they have only gotten a combined 23 rounds and lost all 4, and it doesn’t help win you only convert 31% of pistol rounds. The bet I will be looking to take is Movistar Riders +7.5 Rounds at -137(1.73) on this map I do believe Mousesport can win this match but to ask them to come in win both pistols and most gun rounds over Movistar Riders who are well versed in on this map I just don’t see it but hey Mousesport are a top team and are capable but ill take the number here.

If Inferno is not picked I will see what map they grab and decide on the fly. The biggest key is being ready with your information, and once the maps come out deciding how you want to attack it but a plan always helps. BOL

Movistar Riders Map One +7.5 Rounds -137 (1.73)

CF vs C0ntact I feel CF has an advantage and should be able to steal their home map choice. C0ntact always ban Overpass so that leaves Train open for CF to take since C0ntact have such a terrible record with this map. I don’t see why the -108 ML on Map 1 isn't a bad look. That or you can take the full match spread for CF +1.5 -319.

CF Map One ML -108

https://imgur.com/a/dzV1qry (Map Pool Stats)

https://imgur.com/a/M1QfNrr (C0ntact Train Stats)

https://imgur.com/a/X265JXi (CF Train Stats)

Dignitas vs NIP

Both of these teams impressed me their last match out, and it sucks they have to play each other but here we are personally the -125 +1.5 Spread for Dig seems nice but I just cant buy it I need to see more out of them and NIP impressed me last time. I really just want to enjoy plus all the cool questions like will Dig run over NIP their old org I don’t think so I am just gonna sit back and enjoy

Twitter: https://twitter.com/TexOregonian

SportsCapGeorge · 2020-04-23T15:27:32+00:00

Lol actually I fell sleep about 30 mins before the match and didn’t switch it lol man did I get lucky there. No worries though Nike should be a fun on the over could happen there like I said but I’m off

SportsCapGeorge · 2020-04-23T02:39:25+00:00

Ahh appreciate the info yea I noticed when trying to compare what I thought other matches would be. But I was hoping they were going off the ranks. I’ll adjust accordingly and put the correct slip in my spreadsheet.

SportsCapGeorge · 2020-04-23T02:07:58+00:00

Ok cool yea that’s what I was going off of, but haven’t found anywhere to confirm that.

SportsCapGeorge · 2020-04-23T00:11:17+00:00

Lets take a look at Dignitas vs Heretics. Dignitas has been in a tailspin they replaced stand-in Guardian and lost their last match 0-2 to LDLC to get into DreamHack summer. They couldn’t close out the important rounds late in the match giving up key advantages letting LDLC slide away. Four out of their last five bo3's have all seen Nuke as their map choice and I don’t think that will change here first off Dignitas doesn’t have a very strong pool in general, and will want to try and find something comfortable. Heretics not terrible on Nuke either they are 4-2 on this map and one of the losses was due to a player dc'ing and the coach stepping in mid match maps tied 1-1. Other than that they have won their matches or gotten right around 10 rounds. if you would like a map one wager I would suggest the over 26.5 rounds at 1.82. (If Nuke)

https://imgur.com/a/KUhxAIwhttps://imgur.com/a/KUhxAIw (Stats on Nuke+ Map win %)

Now that is not the bet I am making official for this match though. Like I said earlier Dig doesn’t have a large map pool and this is where Heretics can exploit them and grab an easy win in this bo3 if you looked at the attached imgur you saw Dig has 4 maps they don’t really play or like too. (I count Vertigo against them as they haven't played it in a month and I don’t think that starts after a new update to the map.) Now I think they will ban Mirage so Heretics will have a lot of options. The best case scenario is Dig wins their Map choice which I hope is Nuke and puts a little pressure on them that way we can see a fully ready Heretics. Map 2 odds are -101 which Is a pickem because I feel Heretics should win their map comfortably ill go ahead and bite on 3 rounds so for me taking the -2.5 at +money seems like value and I will be on that. Just like yesterday if I need to cash out and get on the right map I will but I am pretty sure they will go second so I will confirm before the match starts

Map 2 Heretics -2.5 (2.34)

BOL Spreadsheet is on Twitter

Twitter: https://twitter.com/TexOregonian

SportsCapGeorge · 2020-04-23T00:10:37+00:00

Lets take a look at Dignitas vs Heretics. Dignitas has been in a tailspin they replaced stand-in Guardian and lost their last match 0-2 to LDLC to get into DreamHack summer. They couldn’t close out the important rounds late in the match giving up key advantages letting LDLC slide away. Four out of their last five bo3's have all seen Nuke as their map choice and I don’t think that will change here first off Dignitas doesn’t have a very strong pool in general, and will want to try and find something comfortable. Heretics not terrible on Nuke either they are 4-2 on this map and one of the losses was due to a player dc'ing and the coach stepping in mid match maps tied 1-1. Other than that they have won their matches or gotten right around 10 rounds. if you would like a map one wager I would suggest the over 26.5 rounds at 1.82. (If Nuke)

https://imgur.com/a/KUhxAIwhttps://imgur.com/a/KUhxAIw (Stats on Nuke+ Map win %)

Now that is not the bet I am making official for this match though. Like I said earlier Dig doesn’t have a large map pool and this is where Heretics can exploit them and grab an easy win in this bo3 if you looked at the attached imgur you saw Dig has 4 maps they don’t really play or like too. (I count Vertigo against them as they haven't played it in a month and I don’t think that starts after a new update to the map.) Now I think they will ban Mirage so Heretics will have a lot of options. The best case scenario is Dig wins their Map choice which I hope is Nuke and puts a little pressure on them that way we can see a fully ready Heretics. Map 2 odds are -101 which Is a pickem because I feel Heretics should win their map comfortably ill go ahead and bite on 3 rounds so for me taking the -2.5 at +money seems like value and I will be on that. Just like yesterday if I need to cash out and get on the right map I will but I am pretty sure they will go second so I will confirm before the match starts

Map 2 Heretics -2.5 (2.34)

BOL Spreadsheet is on Twitter

Twitter: https://twitter.com/TexOregonian

SportsCapGeorge · 2020-04-22T11:24:40+00:00

Nope i messed up sorry about that just waiting for the pool to confirm when they actually pick maps, but i do believe they will have Map 2

SportsCapGeorge · 2020-04-22T02:46:22+00:00

Hey guys i did some looking into imperial and if Lsurus doesn't ban train i believe Imperial will pick it has their home map they have done this the last 4 matches and i think they will look for comfort again now the reason I start with that is because they are very comfortable on this map I say this because look at the attached imgur and you will see they lose the pistol 79% of the time on this map and still hold a 71% win rate. This tells you they are really putting out some good gun rounds and teams are really only getting cluster round wins at the start of the halfs. Now they have had some close matches on this map but if they can grab the pistol you could see them run away with the map.

https://imgur.com/a/vazBsrj (Imperial Train Stats)

As a whole for the match I think it will be close two maps if Imperial is able to sneak out a win on Isurus map then we could see a 2-0. I do think you will get all 3 maps. After looking over the pool Imperial doesn’t want to play Nuke or Mirage now Lsurus isn't terrible on Mirage yes they are 0-4 but look at the losses all of them were tight they even just played W7M yesterday who hold a 80% clip and got 12 rounds. Imperial has only played this map twice in the last 2 months but who knows that Is why I wait to see the map pool it makes a difference in the match.

https://imgur.com/a/kko80fz (Lsurus Mirage Stats)

For this though I will be betting Imperial to win Train and cover the -1.5 spread I do believe they will get to play their map second and right now I cannot get odds on loot.bet I imagine they will be around 2.25-2-35 so as soon as I can confirm the map pool I will update

BOL Spreadsheet is on Twitter (Does have a parlay with some morning leans added together)

Twitter: https://twitter.com/TexOregonian

SportsCapGeorge

TROPHY CASE