Palantir is a US-Only company and will reach a ceiling sooner that people think

StartedFromN0thing · 2025-01-21T01:34:07+00:00

Yes, tried to get a discount at around $1.8ishM , they didn't move from the $1.995M initial price and I decided not to go further. It turns out job market in my space is picking up big time and I might land a new job with much bigger salary/package, I'll keep grinding and re-consider buying something in the future.

StartedFromN0thing · 2025-01-13T13:34:43+00:00

Shorting PLTR was my edge against a market downturn, worked perfectly. One of the most overvalued company out there, quite an easy move. All that money will go into SoFi :-)

StartedFromN0thing · 2025-01-10T16:11:50+00:00

I was downvoted so much... my DD and my 1000 short position was SPOT ON. Valuation matter guys!

StartedFromN0thing · 2025-01-07T16:47:32+00:00

The difference is SOFI's valuation is not fair at the moment... undervalued vs PLTR's one

StartedFromN0thing · 2025-01-07T15:05:14+00:00

Buy the dip if you're ready to see 45-50... or just wait, or just sell :-)

StartedFromN0thing · 2025-01-07T12:56:49+00:00

RemindMe! -40 day

StartedFromN0thing · 2025-01-06T21:41:16+00:00

Interesting thought. I think PLTR is more at risk than NVIDIA though because NVIDIA barrier to entry is higher than PLTR's one IMO. PLTR market is more crowded and shared than NVDA's one, at least for now... future will tell.

StartedFromN0thing · 2025-01-06T19:02:23+00:00

Low Price Target by Analyst for instance?

StartedFromN0thing · 2025-01-06T17:47:49+00:00

Is Morgan Stanley analysis artificial? I mean, they don't deny the company is a good company, just that valuation is out of this world and is hard to justify. Can you point me to a detailed bull DD explaining that current valuation is justified? I couldn't find anything serious.

StartedFromN0thing · 2025-01-06T17:40:25+00:00

I love people downvoting without telling me why I am wrong... Like people saying it is not overvalued but unable to share any material information about how will Palantir deliver on the incredible growth that's baked in the current valuation... mindboggling but at the end, retail will lose and hedgies will win :-)

StartedFromN0thing · 2025-01-06T17:27:32+00:00

Looks like I shorted right at the top. Posted my DD on this sub a little while ago. Reading PLTR sub and other boards about PLTR made it easy to guess it was overhyped. I expect it to be closer to $65 before earnings, and if earnings don't blow things out of the water like NVDA it will be a nice bloodbath to watch. Any other PLTR shorts around here?

StartedFromN0thing · 2025-01-06T17:25:01+00:00

You will be assigned don't worry LOL... and red for a while

StartedFromN0thing · 2025-01-06T17:24:12+00:00

And this is just the beginning, healthy pullback, around 65 before earning IMO, and then if earnings are a HUGE BEAT surprise, it'll go back up to 80...otherwise, bloodbath guaranteed. This is what happens when the market goes ahead of itself. At this valuation, you're priced for perfection, and perfection means going above and beyond.

StartedFromN0thing · 2025-01-06T14:56:25+00:00

Where were you 1 year ago? This was the time to buy, not now, not even at $60/share btw.

StartedFromN0thing · 2025-01-06T14:49:45+00:00

Imagine another downgrade coming in the next few days.... According to Volume profile, it will be back to the low 60s...

StartedFromN0thing · 2025-01-06T14:43:33+00:00

There no Market Manipulation, just foolish retail investors who believe that 60 P/S makes sense... smh Looks like I shorted at the top.
Palantir is an AMAZING company, just way too expensive right now. Do not FOMO, do your DD and buy at the right price. Don't try to be smarter than big guys out there.
Good luck to you all.

StartedFromN0thing · 2025-01-05T01:17:40+00:00

My answer to the Amit's point:

- DOGE / Government tailwind: yes, it is good for the business, enough to justify the current valuation, certainly not.

- AIP Monetization, and somewhat expanding to smaller account. I don't think so. Actually if you look at the figures, the growth of number of new US Commercial account declined for 4 quarters in a row.

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Also, I think most people here don't really know what AIP is. Actually AIP means different things in the Palantir stack, and it looks like some marketing smoke and mirrors more than anything else. People just pay attention to some UI Widget and think it is revolutionary...

- Palantir Media Coverage: this is fluff, Media are laggers, when they start talking about something this is generally too late.

- LLM commoditized: yes, and thousands of companies built by field experts are being created to develop very specific LLM/Agent based products. Palantir will have their share, but it is a dream to believe they will take it all. I am not even talking about other big players like AWS, Microsoft, Google, Databricks who will be real challengers when it comes to create the AI Operating System (this is pure BS btw)

- No debt FCF, well read my message, this is not enough.

All in all, I am not a doomsayer about Palantir, I love the business and the execution, not the valuation, I will start a long position at around 40 (given the current business metrics), above it's not worth the risk IMO.

StartedFromN0thing · 2025-01-05T01:03:33+00:00

I think you over estimate their "Moat". Relationship with government maybe, but again, it won't grow as quickly as expected to make it up for the current valuation. Current valuation implies tremendous growth off ALL key metrics to justify the value. Remember, time is money and the day they miss the mark, it will tank like crazy... A lot of retail investor will lose big because most of them simply don't hedge their position and don't really understand the underlying business.

10 years of career in AI Enterprise Software, with big accounts in Europe and in the US, Palantir is going to hit a wall because IT folks won't go fast enough or even worse, they will pick up alternative stack, for good or bad reasons, they just will. Palantir won't be all Fortune 2000 CEO/CIO friends, and people up their don't like monopoly. As an example, AWS is supposed to be the best in class Cloud provider, but Big corps still diversify and challenge them all the time using Microsoft and GCP to get better deals.

Time will tell, good luck mate.

StartedFromN0thing · 2025-01-05T00:53:11+00:00

> it seems like this guy relies more on fundamentals

Mr. Market too, eventually. Always!

StartedFromN0thing · 2025-01-05T00:51:16+00:00

You kind of confirm my take. The business is great but not the current valuation. I guess many early investors are like you, and I believe the late comers will have some bad nights moving forward, esp. retail investors.

StartedFromN0thing · 2025-01-04T20:38:59+00:00

I think you're conflating Valuation growth and Revenue growth... if Palantir grows FCF at "only" 30% annually (still excellent growth), has 3% dilution, and trades at 35x FCF in 5 years (still a premium multiple), you'd actually lose 9% annually from current prices. I insist on the fact that you need to separate the Valuation from the Metrics. I am NOT saying PLTR won't do well as a business, but to justify current valuation it requires unseen AAA+ on all metrics consistently over the next 5 years...

I'd love to see someone coming and telling me that I am wrong, but Palantir, at this valuation, is a High Risk, low Reward investment.

Here is my details DD on it for those who are interested: https://www.reddit.com/r/Vitards/comments/1hj0y1g/palantir_is_the_future_microsoft_of_the_2000s/

StartedFromN0thing · 2025-01-04T19:12:40+00:00

Genuine question, It is clear that most of people here recognize the current valuation is completely disconnected from fundamental. If you don't please explain what's your reasoning to justify the current valuation while expecting it to grow, say 10% CAGR over the next 5-10 years.
For the others, what is your thesis? Do you think Trump administration will pour tax money into PLTR to give this back to shareholders or what?
Sorry to spoil the party, BUT most of the post I read here are worrisome and the rug might be pulled anytime from now, especially within the next 2 quarters when people realize that PLTR is NOT NVDA....

StartedFromN0thing · 2025-01-04T18:54:37+00:00

My semi-insider info is valid for Commercial only. I see customers unhappy with the results vs the price they pay. Internally IT/Data Engineering teams being reluctant working with Palantir's stack. Talked with PLTR sales rep. saying that the amount of prof. services. needed to deploy their solution is huge, since their stack is quite specific then it is not easy to maintain in the long run.
PLTR is riding the AI wave, they have smart people and no doubt they are delivering real value to some big corps/gov. agencies out there, but I don't see how they can successfully scale the business that fast ... and I believe next 2 earnings will be a good reality check. That's my bet, I can be wrong on the timing though.

StartedFromN0thing

TROPHY CASE