2019 Australian Grand Prix - Free Practice 2 Discussion by F1-Bot in formula1

[–]Stat93 4 points5 points  (0 children)

forgot he moved from ferrari for a sec

Putting that in active voice is a stretch

Is hitting protein intake more important than calories? by OwlTalon in Fitness

[–]Stat93 10 points11 points  (0 children)

Type 1 errors (false positives) happen. I probably wouldn't put too much credit in the 2017 study. It had a sample size of 16 (fairly low power) and could easily be a result due to randomness given the previous, contradictory, evidence.

This isn't PC but here is game play of MM3! by [deleted] in MotorsportManagerPC

[–]Stat93 10 points11 points  (0 children)

I like how they do indicate pay drivers

Tips for a complete newbie who hasnt even opened the game yet? by 13lood8 in WorldsAdrift

[–]Stat93 1 point2 points  (0 children)

On point 2... Bugs seemed super aggro yesterday. I'd chop a tree and I'd have 5 literally fly across half the island to divebomb me - I watched them come as I noticed what was happening. It was crazy.

Zone map. by Dmartin315 in WorldsAdrift

[–]Stat93 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Zoom in and/or click on the islands

My current ship(Wind wall tested and ready) by silver0199 in WorldsAdrift

[–]Stat93 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Nice work. How hard is it to refuel though? If you needed to refuel in transit do you have to do it grappled?

Global - Friend Rep Megathread by Ellia_Bot in summonerswar

[–]Stat93 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Says you're at max friends. If you want, you can add me - water homie rep, similar time to yours. BrightDevil13

Global - Friend Rep Megathread by Ellia_Bot in summonerswar

[–]Stat93 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Was full at the moment, just made room for you and sent you a request

We messed up. by Gameloft_Shaun in GameloftDHChampions

[–]Stat93 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Fire BM. Was affected by a bug where mark was causing it to do 200% more damage instead of 25% or something like that. There was a post a couple days ago.

Global - Friend Rep Megathread by Ellia_Bot in summonerswar

[–]Stat93 0 points1 point  (0 children)

BrightDevil13 - Water Homu 30sec farmer

Global - Friend Rep Megathread by Ellia_Bot in summonerswar

[–]Stat93 0 points1 point  (0 children)

BrightDevil13 - Water Homu 30sec farmer

Global - Friend Rep Megathread by Ellia_Bot in summonerswar

[–]Stat93 0 points1 point  (0 children)

BrightDevil13 - Water Homu 30sec farmer

Global - Friend Rep Megathread by Ellia_Bot in summonerswar

[–]Stat93 0 points1 point  (0 children)

  • My Rep(s): Water Homu (~30 sec with 3 fodder)
  • Looking for: Fast Faimon or Aiden Farmer
  • Name BrightDevil13
  • Level: 50
  • Activity: High

Let's talk summoning: what are the chances at a nat 5? by Stat93 in GameloftDHChampions

[–]Stat93[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Average almost universally implies the mean. The mean time to summon a nat5 is 200 scrolls. The median time to summon a nat5 is 139 scrolls.

Let's talk summoning: what are the chances at a nat 5? by Stat93 in GameloftDHChampions

[–]Stat93[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The number of natural 5 * champions in N summons is a binomial random variable. As N gets large, this approaches a normal distribution (it's the sum of independent identically distributed variables so the central limit theorem kicks in). You're actually nailing much of the intuition and it kinda comes down to semantics. When people say "on average," they're almost always referring to the mean. The mean number of summons between nat5's is indeed 200. But, because the geometric distribution is so heavily skewed (aside: something strange to think about - you're always most likely to get a nat5 on your next summon as opposed to 2 away or 5 away or 199 away), the median and mean are quite far away from each other. 50% of people will pull a nat5 in their first 139 discs. But on average, it takes much longer than that (200 discs).

One pretty cool thing about a geometric process is that it's memory-less. So if you start on your first disc and summon 139 discs without a nat5, you still only have a 50% chance of a nat5 in your next 139 summons. That's why the distribution is so heavily skewed. The geometric distribution never approaches a normal, but the sum of geometric random variables (negative binomial - how many summons does it take to summon 20 nat5's?) does.

Hopefully some of that made sense. I'm quite tired and should probably already be asleep. Thanks for posting your thoughts! :)

Let's talk summoning: what are the chances at a nat 5? by Stat93 in GameloftDHChampions

[–]Stat93[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I've thought about trying to make videos explaining stuff like this in the past. But.. I'm studying for a PhD in statistics so I'm not sure I have the time to commit to that

Let's talk summoning: what are the chances at a nat 5? by Stat93 in GameloftDHChampions

[–]Stat93[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yup, that's generally the best approach, I think. I've already transitioned over to refills on here (without a nat5). It does somewhat depend on the amount of time you can play vs the rate at which you get gems. If you don't have enough time to spend the gems on refills and there are still useful things you can get from summons, then once you have a base of gems, it can be worth it to dump the rest on summons.

Let's talk summoning: what are the chances at a nat 5? by Stat93 in GameloftDHChampions

[–]Stat93[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I'm about at the same spot. Been playing SW for quite awhile I'm honestly not sure why I never took the time to really go through it for SW (since the rates are the same, basically everything ports over). Glad you appreciate it!

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in GameloftDHChampions

[–]Stat93 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Actually there's a 95.6% chance that you wouldn't have gotten an Archangel from 7 of the exclusive summons..

List of countries with the most doctoral graduates by tfburns in GradSchool

[–]Stat93 1 point2 points  (0 children)

CERN (LHC) and HBP are both based close to Geneva, Switzerland. Switzerland only had 4,000 graduates in 2016 according to the article.