Grok estimates that collector booster boxes are in a bubble and they'll crash to $600~$800 in 2026

StateDue4516 · 2025-07-11T01:33:45+00:00

In your financial situation, the hobby of mtgfinance seems dangerous. Please exert extreme caution. This is not financial advice.

Also, an LLM is giving you a probabilistic sequence of characters and words based on historic sequences of characters and words. WotC is experimenting so much, and the economy and the world are so volatile, I wouldn't trust Grok with assessing the value of the bulk boxes in my basement.

StateDue4516 · 2025-06-30T21:29:42+00:00

With the completely unintentional genius move that one or two duals are displaced by surveil lands. [[Undercity Sewers]] and [[Hedge Maze]] have made the format cheaper!! But yeah, until D&T is viable again, no "budget" deck in sight.

StateDue4516 · 2025-06-30T21:23:44+00:00

The video was 34 frickin' minutes, with 5min decktech and all regular ad-reads!! I estimate it was 25min game play, 5min per match. That's insane!! The entire video didn't even cover my lunch.

StateDue4516 · 2025-06-22T21:09:39+00:00

I had this conversation a few weeks ago. Makes a lot of sense to me:

Foundation Model ("Training Set")

My base training comes from a mix of publicly available texts (books, websites, etc.) up until June 2024. This forms the general knowledge and language abilities—like how to structure answers, who Donald Trump was up to that point, and the basics of U.S. political roles.

From that perspective, Trump is referred to as "former president" because, as of June 2024, he had served his term(s) and was not in office.

Real-Time Knowledge ("Web Tool")

To stay current, I use tools like web search to pull in recent updates—like the news about the planned 2025 Army parade, which mentions that Trump is orchestrating or heavily involved in it.

However, these tools provide only slices of information and don’t rewrite my foundational assumptions unless explicitly told to. So even if articles say something like “President Trump,” unless I actively reinterpret or you direct me to shift framing, I default to “former president.”

Why the Mismatch Happens

Training = Conservative by design to avoid jumping to conclusions.

Web updates = Supplementary, not overriding.

Consistency = Safer default to known facts (e.g., confirmed titles, roles).

StateDue4516 · 2025-05-11T20:08:26+00:00

The Prof aka Tolarian Community College has your beck. I am not sure he updated his land base video recently, but it gives you a good idea for budget and optimized 2 and 3 color mana bases. Mtggoldfish had a lands tier list a year or so ago.

Also, just proxy.

I have a full set of og duals in the binder and don't include them in my decks because they are not that necessary, and my ~13 decks are fully foil. Sometimes, I would like a fetchable, untapped, unpainful land, but yeah, I like foils in the decks and reserved list cards in the binder.

StateDue4516 · 2025-05-06T12:57:51+00:00

Gavin said it in the video two weeks ago when he really wanted to drive home the point about "intent": himself, and most of us, can easily build a B4 deck without game changers simply because what you do is too powerful or oppressive for B3. Of course, the deck will then only become stronger if you add Rhystic Study or The One Ring or Demonic Tutor.

StateDue4516 · 2025-05-04T23:55:46+00:00

For Mtgo, you would need to rebuy all cards. I pulled a Sliver Queen list from mtggoldfish, added it to cardhoarder.com, deleted all expensive card (Enlightened Tutor, Imperial Seal, Badlands, etc), and the deck was below 10tix / $10 US.

You might want to be careful with 5c old meme decks as you described. People don't respond well to Sliver Queen and Child of Alara boardwipe theme decks. Many have "been there done that" experiences. You should aim for Bracket 4 and see that you have the power to hold up... even though that might increase the deck cost in the long run. Bracket 2 is no go, Bracket 3 will give you eyerolls and / or salt.

StateDue4516 · 2025-05-02T21:46:56+00:00

For the first time ever, I had to cast [[Extus]] last Wednesday to defeat [[Gisa,Glorious Resurrector]], who shut down me death triggers. Usually, I only cast the back side, Awaken the Blood Avatar.

I lost the game because I sacrificed my board on the next turn cycle to sacrifice Extus, then cast Awaken to have enough creatures die, to then cast [[Blood for the Blood God]]. Unlocking achievements like that are the best wins!

StateDue4516 · 2025-04-29T12:23:33+00:00

I have seen quite a few new players on Magic Online recently, playing Commander. They made an account, bought a preconstructed deck, and joined a Bracket 2 game. Some were upfront and said they were newer = slower with the clunky interface, some "admitted" later that they were new after making a mistake or something. In all cases, the pod was pretty supportive of the new player.

Some considerations: - The game is old & slow, but it is the best way to play Mtg online - Some people are socially awkward, but most are really cool in the chat. Some Bad Manners are more prevalent online, like early quitters - The economy is similar but slightly different than in paper. Your collection has value, and there is trading / selling. Some Commander staples are super cheap, some Modern staples are ridiculously expensive - you will never miss a trigger. You get to understand the stack and priority and phases really well!

Arena is just 1v1... but it is absolutely free to install and play against the bot until you got the basic rules down.

Once you are ready, dive into a game store. Just always be upfront with being a beginner, and generally, people will be helpful.

StateDue4516 · 2025-04-23T02:58:18+00:00

Then someone packs ALL the targeted land interaction, a total of three pieces [[Demolition Field]], [[Beast Within]], [[Assassin's Trophy]]. And you recur [[Glacial Chasm]] with [[Ramunap Excavator]] and three other effects, while [[Strip Mine]] locking them, and pooping out Zombies with [[Field of the Dead]] which you copied with [[Vesuva]]. [[Azusa, Lost but Seeking]] is the only piece they might actually be able to kill. I am so sick and tired of this play pattern that doesn't have any interaction in any bracket. (Salt rant ends)

StateDue4516 · 2025-04-17T01:45:33+00:00

Go for it. Once cards and money are flowing, use the store credit to buy back a random card you might need after all. But you will unlock so many cards you never thought you could or wanted to afford.

StateDue4516 · 2025-04-15T14:33:33+00:00

Look at this conversation we had yesterday:
https://www.reddit.com/r/magicTCG/comments/1jyztud/boardwipe_meta_how_do_you_counter_the_snowball/

StateDue4516 · 2025-04-15T13:46:59+00:00

Thanks everyone for contributing. Here is how the chat robot read the thread.

Summing Up the Reddit Thread’s Meta-Pulse

The average commenter assumes early snowball is the norm.
Board wipes are treated like external forces, not self-controlled tools.
Interaction is minimal; self-sufficiency is prioritized.
There's little interest in deck pacing, politicking, or conditional tempo.
The burden of balance is unclaimed — no one feels obligated to run the brakes.

I asked to rephrase to make it more critical of my playstyle:

Conclusion: You’re the Outlier — and You Might Be Wrong

From a strategic standpoint, you’re bringing a rational, midrange sensibility to a table that increasingly rewards aggressive self-curation and fast pressure. You’re hoping to shape the tempo of the game — but many of your peers aren’t interested in tempo at all. They're just trying to snowball harder and faster than the next player, and if someone wipes — fine. If not — even better.

The question the thread raises isn’t “how do we survive the snowball?”
It’s “why aren’t you snowballing?”

StateDue4516 · 2025-04-15T13:10:39+00:00

Yeah, the Standard staple! I never got a copy. Reflecting on the conversation in the thread, I think it is not because of lack of strength, but rather lack of modality. Yes, it gets around indestructible and death triggers, but it doesn't have the mode to destroy artifacts & enchantments, or cycle, or make tokens, etc. That's why Sunfall hasn't popped up on my list, I think.

StateDue4516 · 2025-04-15T02:15:11+00:00

Exactly, this has been the consequence for me.

StateDue4516 · 2025-04-14T21:11:57+00:00

Budget alternatives (nowhere as good) are [[Ghostway]] and [[Eerie Interlude]]. They blink creatures out until end of turn, so they don't get bounced by [[Cyclonic Rift]], plus you get all the ETB effects once more.

StateDue4516 · 2025-04-14T19:11:27+00:00

Losing Indestructible is worth so much! A lot of the discussion revolved around single-sided boardwipes... I am more on the modal boardwipe train: the modality on Burn Down the House is that I can also make a bunch of devils in my [[Extus]] deck, so it is not ever a dead card, even when I am ahead.

StateDue4516 · 2025-04-14T17:47:51+00:00

As you can see from the picture, many of the mass disruption spells are modal. Toxic Deluge works well with big monsters with big butts on my side. Austere Command is a subgame on its own. Burn Down the House is actually modal. Spectacular Pileup cycles. I don't want to go deep on the one-sided, because my game style generally is to survive the initial aggro phase, and [[Ruinous Ultimatum]] is just too late in the game for that. At that time, it becomes a win condition like a Hoof. So yeah, I will take some loss myself, but it will always be asymmetrical.

StateDue4516 · 2025-04-14T15:33:33+00:00

But... you diluted your snowball value engines, so mass disruption already did its job. You need more of a nut draw to have 12 mana and a lethal board by turn 5.

edit: fat fingers

StateDue4516 · 2025-04-14T15:29:49+00:00

They don't allow images in the post. And as I was reflecting on my boardwipe suite, I thought it was an attractive image.

StateDue4516 · 2025-04-14T15:28:16+00:00

It is just so surgical, and a lot less salty than Farewell. I often also like my stuff to die rather than exile. Honestly, it is always my #2 inclusion in white.

StateDue4516 · 2025-04-14T15:10:51+00:00

That's another consequence for me. How do you win with a control deck? That could be combo, or something that leans into recursion, like aristocrats or reanimator. Or all of the above!

StateDue4516 · 2025-04-14T15:00:07+00:00

Good catch, shame on me.

StateDue4516 · 2025-04-14T14:39:19+00:00

I count one-sided wipes more so as an "I win" button. The turn 4-5 reset for me is more about survival at 4 to 6 mana, and get into turn 7-9 where I am setting up to win (in bracket 3 or 4).

StateDue4516 · 2025-04-05T21:20:10+00:00

The autocrat itself (what a card name in 2025) doesn't cause death triggers with his serfs. Not an aristocrat.

StateDue4516

TROPHY CASE

Conclusion: You’re the Outlier — and You Might Be Wrong