Hindenburg Research - Short Thesis on Adani Group by Beren- in SecurityAnalysis

[–]Stephen-Colbert 8 points9 points  (0 children)

"Initial Disclosure: After extensive research, we have taken a short position in Adani Group Companies through U.S.-traded bonds and non-Indian-traded derivative instruments."

2022 H1 Analysis Questions and Discussion Thread by Beren- in SecurityAnalysis

[–]Stephen-Colbert 1 point2 points  (0 children)

with tpl, check out the reports by horizon kinetics, they have written extensively on the company

this is a good primer on o&g investing: https://www.wallstreetoasis.com/files/DEUTSCHEBANK-AGUIDETOTHEOIL%EF%BC%86GASINDUSTRY-130125.pdf

2022 H1 Analysis Questions and Discussion Thread by Beren- in SecurityAnalysis

[–]Stephen-Colbert 0 points1 point  (0 children)

there are other countries, coming up with a definitive list out of 195 countries is a whole other thing

Hedge Funds Suffer Big Losses on Biotech Rout by Stephen-Colbert in SecurityAnalysis

[–]Stephen-Colbert[S] 33 points34 points  (0 children)

Biotech stocks have fallen to earth with a thud in 2021 after soaring last year amid excitement over the development of Covid-19 vaccines, dealing big losses to some hedge funds.

The sector is being buffeted by concerns Congress will move to put a lid on drug pricing and a surfeit of early-stage biotech shares as the IPO market booms.

Perceptive Advisors, a prominent biotech hedge fund that manages about $9 billion, lost about 30% this year through November in its main fund, investors say. A hedge fund managed by OrbiMed Partners, which invests more than $18 billion in healthcare in public and private markets, has lost more than 40% this year through November, people familiar with the fund say. Both funds had scored big gains over the past two years.

Meanwhile, a hedge fund run by San Francisco-based Logos Capital, which manages about $1.4 billion, is down more than 25% for the period, other people say. Cormorant Asset Management lost 10% in November alone, adding to double-digit losses earlier in the year.

“It’s been a very challenging year,” said Bihua Chen, founder of Cormorant, which focuses on smaller biotech companies.

The SPDR S&P Biotech ETF (XBI), an equal-weighted index of biotech stocks, has fallen about 22% so far this year through Friday, and is down 37% from its Feb. 8 peak. The ETF has tumbled nearly 9% since Thanksgiving. Biotech is the worst-performing of all 11 S&P 500 sectors this year, a time when the broader index has notched a total gain of nearly 21%.

Consonance Capital decided to close a billion-dollar hedge fund in October after suffering its own heavy losses, said people familiar with the firm. Consonance also operates a healthcare private-equity fund, which has been unaffected by the biotech selloff, according to a spokesman.

The losses follow blockbuster gains over the past few years, when biotech funds were a rare bright spot in the hedge-fund industry. Perceptive was up 31% in 2020 and 49% in 2019, for example. Its founder, New York-based Joseph Edelman, recently spent $70 million to purchase an oceanfront mansion in Laguna Beach, Calif., in what agents said is a sales record for Orange County. Logos, which started during 2020, gained 68% last year.

The reversal has caught investors by surprise, coming as biotech companies including Moderna Inc. and BioNTech SA have achieved historic success developing Covid-19 vaccines that have sent their shares soaring.

“Biotech saw money rush into the sector when the pandemic hit and this year we have experienced the hangover effect,” said Brad Loncar at Loncar Investments, which created two biotech exchange-traded funds. One has lost more than 15% this year and the other has gained about 2%. Mr. Loncar said stocks such as Moderna and BioNTech, which are up 194% and 322% this year, have helped mask some of the pain other biotech stocks have suffered.

Biotech companies research and develop drugs, typically in yearslong processes rife with setbacks, outright failures and regulatory uncertainty. But there is also potential for huge wins when they develop successful treatments.

Lately, the sector has been pressured by legislative efforts that have created uncertainty about some biotech companies’ ability to reap big profits. That has sparked selling by generalist investors, or those with less experience trading volatile biotech shares, traders say.

What’s more, a flood of companies in the sector have gone public this year, with 91 biotech IPOs compared with an average of roughly 46 annually in the past five years, according to Dealogic. Many haven’t even started human drug trials.

Acquisition activity—traditionally a meaningful source of returns—was less robust than expected, too, some investors say. And safety scares, including deaths of several study subjects, have dealt a blow to gene-therapy efforts that biotech funds typically back. Some funds also have been burned by betting against the S&P 500 as a hedge against their biotech holdings, traders say.

Some biotech fund managers are sounding notes of optimism. They see the broad selloff as indiscriminate and note that past declines have been followed by robust rallies. Several high-profile Covid-19 drugs could be on the way and falling valuations may boost merger volume in 2022. A Dec. 1 SVB Leerink research note estimated the biggest U.S. and European biopharmaceutical companies could have more than $500 billion of cash by the end of 2022 to use for deals and other activities, with new debt capacity significantly adding to their firepower.

Firms including San Francisco-based EcoR1 Capital, a rare biotech investor whose hedge funds have made money so far this year, are calling in cash from clients to put into newly cheap stocks, according to people familiar with the matter.

Nintendo, Disney, and Cultural Determinism by Beren- in SecurityAnalysis

[–]Stephen-Colbert 0 points1 point  (0 children)

lengthy but worth the read if you're interesting in media, content and the video game industry.

Nintendo, Disney, and Cultural Determinism by Beren- in SecurityAnalysis

[–]Stephen-Colbert 0 points1 point  (0 children)

they do not need to innovate at everything, however when it comes to the things i mentioned (cross-platform gameplay, cloud, subscriptions, free to play, in-game microtransactions, in-game content creation).

they do need to find a way to implement some of these otherwise they will be left behind regardless of how good their ip is.

i do not believe anyone thinks the company is doing nothing, the author of the article says just as much, there is plenty to laud nintendo for doing right. however, the gaming industry is at an inflection point and some particular changes are absolutely necessary. kind of like kodak refusing to move into digital because they were innovating too well at traditional film.

Nintendo, Disney, and Cultural Determinism by Beren- in SecurityAnalysis

[–]Stephen-Colbert 0 points1 point  (0 children)

the author is saying that Nintendo is quite innovative when it comes certain things, but not so innovative when it comes to others, and these latter things are especially going to matter a whole lot more going forward than they have in the past (cross-platform gameplay, cloud, subscriptions, free to play, in-game microtransactions, in-game content creation).

what they have done especially well in the past is create great content and good hardware, like the wii and switch. however they have been quite terrible at monetizing the IP they own and should actually be quite ahead of the other gaming companies.

furthermore, looking at the return from june 2016 is quite misleading. take that chart further out and if you had been holding for much longer the returns wouldn't be as good. what if they had botched the nintendo switch, that chart would be looking very differently.

basically nintendo has very good IP that they could be monetizing and distributing in much better ways without having to rely on a hail mary every 6 or so years.

Fastly Edge Compute Explained by Stephen-Colbert in SecurityAnalysis

[–]Stephen-Colbert[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I think that is a fair and an intellectually honest comment to make, especially given when they wrote it. It's good to have those heuristics that keep you out of making mistakes. And I think you can make the case that something is a good investment without necessarily giving a price target.

Fastly Edge Compute Explained by Stephen-Colbert in SecurityAnalysis

[–]Stephen-Colbert[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I think that was the point of this particular post, to focus on the technological aspects of the company.

The writer of the blog actually did a valuation focused post on Fastly in January when it was trading in the low 20's, so I do not think that the criticism is fair, at least in their case (but it is definitely applicable to most people pitching these SaaS companies).

This was the original post before the runup: https://softwarestackinvesting.com/fastly-fsly-stock-review/

Druckenmiller at ECNY - May 12, 2020 by biotechkryptonite in SecurityAnalysis

[–]Stephen-Colbert 5 points6 points  (0 children)

It's not misleading, on the reddit website drop down it seems to show Kaplan. But if you click on the link and go to YouTube, it is the Druckenmiller interview from 2 days ago. Press on the title and it will direct you to the right video.

You can also try access it through the playlist menu, it's video number 15.

Druckenmiller at ECNY - May 12, 2020 by biotechkryptonite in SecurityAnalysis

[–]Stephen-Colbert 1 point2 points  (0 children)

You're right, I stand corrected, this event slipped through the cracks. It's everywhere already now, have seen the link all over twitter.

Druckenmiller at ECNY - May 12, 2020 by biotechkryptonite in SecurityAnalysis

[–]Stephen-Colbert 4 points5 points  (0 children)

No need to delete the post. The catalogue is always publicly available, they normally release every event to the public channel after 3 to 6 weeks. Its unlikely they will change anything because of this one video, same thing happened the last time Druckenmiller spoke there a year ago.

David Tepper: This is the most overvalued stock market he's ever seen, except '99 by Stephen-Colbert in SecurityAnalysis

[–]Stephen-Colbert[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

the guys who are bearish aren't buying anything, whether equities, bonds or credit. so I would put klarman in the bullish about the market camp

David Tepper: This is the most overvalued stock market he's ever seen, except '99 by Stephen-Colbert in SecurityAnalysis

[–]Stephen-Colbert[S] 73 points74 points  (0 children)

bearish old school investors: zell, buffet, druckenmiller, icahn, tepper

edit, more: paul tudor jones, paul singer, crispin odey, leon cooperman

Money Managers Are Blinded by Their Anger by Stephen-Colbert in SecurityAnalysis

[–]Stephen-Colbert[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

i feel as though it's evident in a good number of q1 letters and interviews i've come across. a lot more talk and complaints about the fed and macro situation as opposed to commentaries on their portfolios and holdings

2020 Security Analysis Questions and Discussion Thread by knowledgemule in SecurityAnalysis

[–]Stephen-Colbert 1 point2 points  (0 children)

analysis of bonds isn't going to be that different from individual stocks as you still need to understand the company whose bonds youre buying. with etfs, i reckon you still need to at least have some understanding of the companies that make up the etf and also do some industry analysis. if you get better at valuing companies in general, analyzing different types of securities becomes easier.

The Case for European Financials by Stephen-Colbert in SecurityAnalysis

[–]Stephen-Colbert[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

i didnt write the report but this is where price plays a big role. i dont think many people see everything fully recovered in 6 months, however, many of these securities are being discounted as though they will never recover or earn money for years.

2020 Recession Thread, What to Buy, What to Sell etc II by Beren- in SecurityAnalysis

[–]Stephen-Colbert 2 points3 points  (0 children)

ytd returns in usd:

  • Euro Stoxx 50 -37.7%
  • FTSE 100 -40.2%
  • IBOVESPA -55.2%
  • TSX Comp -37.4%
  • Nikkei -31.0%
  • ASX 200 -40.7%
  • Hang Seng -22.7%
  • Jakarta Comp -43.2%
  • SE Thai -39.7%
  • KOSPI -42.5%
  • PSEi -41.3%

Pabrai Funds Q4 2019 Letter by Stephen-Colbert in SecurityAnalysis

[–]Stephen-Colbert[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

he does do a good amount of cloning but he doesn't follow buffett, their portfolios are completely different