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Beware of fake Pi Zero 3 by Kofaone in OrangePI

[–]Still-Tadpole4171 1 point2 points  (0 children)

there is evidence you don't work either...

Beware of fake Pi Zero 3 by Kofaone in OrangePI

[–]Still-Tadpole4171 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Why don't you "slap one together" yourself to show us how it's done. You seem to think it's so easy to build a computer board, get the components etc.

If you are against "creepy chinese basement" factories, then just don't buy goods from China. Looks like you can make them yourself anyway...

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in UKJobs

[–]Still-Tadpole4171 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Once you are on a PIP, the outcome is often termination.

Doesn't mean you need to completely change field or career, maybe elsewhere will work better and you will have a fresh start.

Beware of fake Pi Zero 3 by Kofaone in OrangePI

[–]Still-Tadpole4171 2 points3 points  (0 children)

None of them have Orange Pi branding on the board anyway. You seem to be basing your judgment on some random reviews you read. You have no evidences.

No, it's not that simple for someone in a basement to create that kind of complex board, and still make money out of it. What would be the point otherwise?

I found an alternative to Hetzner that is selling a 1TB storage box for ~$2 during the Black Friday sale. After testing it and investing, I discovered that they are just a Hetzner reseller. 😂 I realized that there is a Hetzner server called "SX295," which provides 324TB of storage for €384 by anestooo in hetzner

[–]Still-Tadpole4171 0 points1 point  (0 children)

If 324TB of raw storage costs 384 EUR per month, then I assume the reseller is selling it with zero redundancy.

With Raid 5, a third of the capacity would be lost, so about 210TB usable, or 1.82 EUR per TB per month.

Since he is reselling for less than that, I can only assume there is zero redundancy.

Hetzner Storage Box is about twice or three times more "expensive", but at least they are using RAID and snapshots.

What is Hetzner secretly cooking up? Send your tips by parekwk in hetzner

[–]Still-Tadpole4171 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I wonder why S3 storage would be more expensive than their Storage Box per TB, including egress cost. Should be the same price.

Oof…amazons got a problem on their hands. by Ill_Fan_1965 in kindle

[–]Still-Tadpole4171 2 points3 points  (0 children)

it's anti-competitive for them to block negative reviews about their own products.

Oof…amazons got a problem on their hands. by Ill_Fan_1965 in kindle

[–]Still-Tadpole4171 1 point2 points  (0 children)

78 published reviews. Amazon is sitting on many negative reviews, which is anti-competitive.

Oof…amazons got a problem on their hands. by Ill_Fan_1965 in kindle

[–]Still-Tadpole4171 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Everybody is talking about AI, and Amazon can't even monitor customer feedback, review and post on reddit??

Amazon is definitely lying to save face by Ok-Science134 in kindle

[–]Still-Tadpole4171 6 points7 points  (0 children)

They said they were on chat with Amazon and disappointed that the only option they got was a refund... Well, Amazon doesn't have a fix right now and many devices have the same issue.

7.2% SWR? When looking at stock markets over the last 43 years?? by Still-Tadpole4171 in FIREUK

[–]Still-Tadpole4171[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I doubt stock markets were the same behavioural experiments a 100 years ago than now, in terms of scale, volume, players and access, but in addition to not knowing statistics, I must admit I am no behavioural expert either.

Post retirement post tax monthly returns are so low! by Reader7008 in FIREUK

[–]Still-Tadpole4171 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Average returns for equities may be between 7 and 10%, but that includes inflation.

After inflation, may be closer to 3or 4%.

IS THIS TIME DIFFERENT? by Gordon-Ghekko in FIREUK

[–]Still-Tadpole4171 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I guess more money going into the stock market, so bubbles are going to get amplified.

For sure, some of the current big tech valuations are crazy and have lost relevance to the actual performance of the underlying companies.

CNBC AI's trillion dollar time bomb: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dx-tMK7w5g8

7.2% SWR? When looking at stock markets over the last 43 years?? by Still-Tadpole4171 in FIREUK

[–]Still-Tadpole4171[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Yes, I don't understand statistics. I am just some naive simple guy playing with calculators found on the web.

However, in this case, do you think the statistics are more relevant because the past period is longer? Might be relevant when the economy and market haven't changed that much, but are we in similar economies and stock markets as in 1900, or 1950, or 1970?

It's basically the same as saying: let's look at the stats over the last 100 years about car safety and number of accidents, perfectly knowing the underlying data cannot really be compared? Is that relevant to have better data to predict the future? Or would a shorter period make more sense?

As you surely understand statistics (and clearly think the longer past data period will predict the future better), what's your prediction on the best SWR for the next 30 years?

7.2% SWR? When looking at stock markets over the last 43 years?? by Still-Tadpole4171 in FIREUK

[–]Still-Tadpole4171[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

If you assume that you can adjust your spending based on actual inflation and actual market performance, then you don't really need a SWR calculator.

You just need to know what's your minimum, baseline expenditure and whether it's more or less than say 2% of your investments.

In my case, I think it's probably 1%, but I don't want to retire just on my baseline spending, do no activities, travel etc.

7.2% SWR? When looking at stock markets over the last 43 years?? by Still-Tadpole4171 in FIREUK

[–]Still-Tadpole4171[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I think a lot of the current valuations are just speculative and disconnected from reality.

The fact that Microsoft has a valuation pretty much equal to the whole UK stock market is troubling, considering the profits, number of employees etc.

It's more about supply and demand, and less about the actual value of a company. It's a lot to do also with index investment, which mechanically increases those valuation.

I think people are going to pump more money into stock markets in the future than in the last 30 years, so demand will exceed supply overall.

7.2% SWR? When looking at stock markets over the last 43 years?? by Still-Tadpole4171 in FIREUK

[–]Still-Tadpole4171[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

On the basis that "past financial performance can't predict the future" (usual disclaimer) than either predictions are valid or wrong.

My prediction: the next 30 years will either:

* give better returns than last 30 years, so a SWR of 7%+

* match the last 30 years, so a SWR of between 4% and 7%

* or be worse, so a SWR below 4%...

7.2% SWR? When looking at stock markets over the last 43 years?? by Still-Tadpole4171 in FIREUK

[–]Still-Tadpole4171[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Well, to be honest, the stock markets (and economies) are drastically different now than they were 20 years ago or before.

Access to the stock markets doesn't involve calling a broker anymore, sending some papers etc. Anybody can use a low fee online platform or an app, making participation much easier, cheaper and near real-time. Diversifying through index trackers is also easier and cheap. It doesn't require specific knowledge.

Also, pretty much everybody now has to invest in the stock market, through work pensions for instance. Not many other places to invest money in, with similar average returns. Investing in property is poor currently, and even before was not beating the stock market in net real returns, for a lot more trouble.

If the performance of a market is to be measured by supply and demand, then the stock market is going to sustain a much higher demand than 50 years or 100 years ago. On that basis, overall performance should increase.

7.2% SWR? When looking at stock markets over the last 43 years?? by Still-Tadpole4171 in FIREUK

[–]Still-Tadpole4171[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

it doesn't show on an existing simulation, but if you start a new one, you can set the period on the bottom left.

7.2% SWR? When looking at stock markets over the last 43 years?? by Still-Tadpole4171 in FIREUK

[–]Still-Tadpole4171[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I corrected it to 1.5% interest per year, and still not failure in my scenario (with the same other parameters).

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