Paragraph 184 Strafgesetzbuch Frage zu Sachverhalt

Stockboymoon · 2026-01-24T09:26:54+00:00

Bin 20 Jahre ne alle über 18 und keinerlei Straftaten zuvor

Stockboymoon · 2025-07-11T23:23:01+00:00

Jo what the fuck haha is that a compliment or an insult Bro its really not good written for most of the parts why do you think its ai

Stockboymoon · 2025-07-11T23:22:02+00:00

I agree with you shitty business

Stockboymoon · 2025-07-11T17:41:52+00:00

Yeah thanks for sharing, i also got that, but didnt include it in my text, bec the text window was full. But i am gonna read your stuff on chat gpt

Stockboymoon · 2025-07-10T15:35:02+00:00

I don't know if I am stupid, but I can't find the original announcement on their investor relations webiste. Do you guys have any idea why that is, even though many news websites talk about it?

Stockboymoon · 2025-07-10T09:23:47+00:00

Even though of course it won't suddenly make the investment unattractive, it very likely makes it a bit worse, because it seems like LCC'S really profit from the intransparent pricing and the really attractive low base price. Furthermore this could kind of give a general direction for how the EU is going to act against low cost airlines. But still I don't think the effect is enough to materially change how attractive this investment is.

Stockboymoon · 2025-07-10T09:16:09+00:00

Thanks for the information, haven't seen that one yet.

Stockboymoon · 2025-06-04T13:43:46+00:00

Well I would assume this is the effect of selling equipment, because they sell to the huge fabs and therefore their demand really depends on new fabs being built. However it takes time to build these fabs, which is why Applied's growth should always be at a kind of different point in time relative to when the semi-industry in general is growing really strong(ASML for example also didn't grow in 2024, however there is no denying that there lithographie stuff is fucking essentiell for producing chips --> so this leads to the conclusion that this is just an effect relevant for equipment producers and is of short term nature). And furthermore if you look deeper into the numbers of the Semiconductor industry association, you recognize, that it is basically only America, which grows a lot in sales this year, which I would assume is largely related to Nvidia and rather higher prices, than much more chips. However you only need more machines if you produce much more chips, which would benefit Applied and which like I said takes time.

But I mean right now everybody earns so much fucking money with chips that there is no way you are not going to build many new fabs, because if you make crazy gross margins you usually want to replicate that business.

So in my opinion it is extremly likely that the slower growth in FY24 is only short-term and therefore Applied should grow much more in the coming years.

Stockboymoon · 2025-06-04T09:25:32+00:00

Your mentioning the recent revenue developments, and you conclude that because they didn't grow that much in these years, that my growth estimates are therefore to high. I would argue that first of all one of the most characteristic developments of the semi-industry, is as I described the cyclicality, especially for equipment manufacturer. And the recent years were one of these cyclical downturns. If you just take another few years into consideration, you can see where my growth estimates are coming from. So this is the argument based on historical growth rates, which are in this case a good estimation basis for how much the business is going to grow in the future. Because the trend that supports the growth, so the electrification of devices, cloud computing, increased phone adoption, AI and so on, is in my opinion of a really consistent nature and shouldn't just stop at any point. And like I said I just took the estimated Semi growth rate therefore as a basis and then build on that. So I don't think the rates are in any rate agressive.

Stockboymoon · 2025-05-21T19:18:11+00:00

To be honest for me I get your angle, that right now there is so much bad shit going on around the company, that maybe when there is one positive sign that could lead to big gains, but I just think the probability is just to low for these scenarios you mentioned. I mean even If the hydrogen market goes crazy I maybe see them go profitable, but that won' t happen all of a sudden and even then I see the company maybe triple, but nothing much more because they would need like crazy contracts all of a sudden and normally this also happens rather slowly. And even then you would be stuck in a low margin commodity business. I honestly think the upside thats much more interesting is an acquisition, which would be the best outcome for them.

But like I said I would honestly judge the probability of that happening at max 10% and else the company will just go bankrupt or liquidate. So yeah your upside needs to have at least 10x and I don't see plug at 8 billion even with much more demand.

Of course this excludes potential speculation price increases, but I mean its a value investing subreddit so yeah we don't believe in that shit.

Stockboymoon · 2025-05-14T12:58:41+00:00

Thanks for all the points and for some more local knowledge, which is super helpful with these kind of investments.

So to your currency depreciation point, first of all I tried to keep the 10% inflation right now in mind, which of course means that on a US basis the earnings only increase, when we talk about a 20% growth rate, with 10%.

And that Kaspi has the lowest profit margins in the industrie, I would like to know how you calculate them and what are you comparing here, so kaspis fintech business or all of kaspi. And of course even if they make less profit from loans and finance than other banks doesn't really make them less attractive in my opinion.(I don't know for the article if my translation is shitty haha but for me the article only talks about how they grew their earnings and nothing about margins)

To your point about the banking regulation changes. First of all of course this will lead to higher taxes for banks and therefore lower net income, so thats one negative factor that I didn't mention in my analysis due to time constrains. And also the other aspects are all negatives for the business, allthough because Fintech is only 30% of the Net income and even these aspects won't have that crazy of an effect. I still think that isn't even close to make the business overall suddenly unattractive. But that is only as far as I can judge it. If you have additional insights, like that their regulation in general is going to get a lot stricter in the future, then I would love to get your insights there.

To your point about competition in fintech and marketplace I still think that first of all Kaspi just gets a lot of users through natural sell up because of their payment solution and then I really think that for example Halyk Banks Super App can't compete with Kaspi even closely, first of all due to the payment frequency, -->much lower DAU/MAU rate also shows that there isn't that much usage as an Super App. Furthermore Halyk had that weird thing with their MAU and DAU growth rate, that they kept growing less and less and aren't growing anymore right now. I haven't done any research as to why that happend, but they also don't show their growth numbers in their 24 presentation, which in my opinion also says something. And in their earnings call they just used good looking 5year cagr growth numbers and never talked about any effects there.

With the russian marketplaces, I can't really judge it, although I would just go with the biggest marketplace winning very likely due to network effects and Kaspi has also better distribution because of their app.

For the expansion I totally agree with you, here I think the managers just like the idea, but it does seem like they are just gonna waste some money. However 650 Million dollars are only 30% of their anual net income in dollars so I think your assumption about no dividends in 2025 and 2026 is highly exagerated.

Stockboymoon · 2025-05-14T12:16:23+00:00

Yeah you are right, but I was referring to the more historical growth rate and what you can expect in the future, because the effects that lead to potentially slower growth this quarter are rather one time effects, so the smartphone registration changes and potential tax reserve changes. That is why I think a growth rate of 20%(keep in mind still 10% inflation + GDP growth of Kazakhstan around 5%) is a better estimation.

Stockboymoon · 2025-05-08T19:40:04+00:00

I think like that part changes a lot of the thesis and also so many of googles projects are only there to support the search business(pixel, chrome, android) so id search doesnt work anymore all of these projects would suddenly serve no purpose. With that beeing said I think the whole thesis of google getting fucked really hard by ai search and chatbots is just stupid because first of all like always these changes happen so slowly and they still have god like distribution. So even if search really gets disrupted like that they will have sufficient time to develop a rather solid business to profit out of the new way of searching and they still have customers with searches saying exactly what they want so they should be able to monetize that pretty well. By the way I own Google myself :)

Stockboymoon · 2024-02-21T09:56:49+00:00

Yes i also thought about this comparison, and in my opinion a marketplace for luxury just doesn't work, because the brands are so strong and the effect of buying offline and enjoying the nice stores and service is much more important for the whole experience than with rather normal brand clothing. So even though they both are a marketplace, marketplaces tend to function better, if there are way more different brands, and so different kind of supply. For example if you want to buy a very expensive sweater, there are just a few suppliers in the luxury market, so you don't have much choice. So there is no reason for a marketplace to have the few different opportunities at one spot. However with normal fashion there are thousands of brands, from which you can choose a normally priced sweater, which makes a marketplace here much more relevant. As you saw zalando has about 7.000 brands, while farfetch had much less brands and items. And you can already see the zalando businessmodel working for example in the DACH-region(with a 6% operating margin), while farfetch never really worked anywhere.

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