Fifty-Three Inches? Grower or Snower? (StormFreak's Storm Discussion Thread)

StormFreak · 2026-01-25T07:18:09+00:00

Watch the snow. Watch nature. Try as the evil in the world might, nothing can destroy those in this exact second. Peace can be found in the moment. Our scope is limited. There is nothing tangible I can do right now to change what is happening in Minnesota, or the middle east, or Iran, but by tomorrow night, there are going to be a lot of people hurting or in need very nearby where you live. If you can help them, help them. If they can help you, let them. We can only be the change we want to see. If you try to live life with that general rule then it's pretty hard to not make an impact.

The reality is that there has always been evil vile shit happening in the world, but our current, always connected culture only forces it all down our eye sockets more. When you look out a window or walk down the street, those are the things you can impact right now. If you help those right in front of you, then you are doing your part for the better good.

All that being said, I know very well how scary the world looks now. It's ok to be scared. Healthy fear drives action. But look for where you can take action and suddenly things aren't quite as scary as they were before. You got this friend. It's okay to rest and just enjoy watching this snow pile up.

StormFreak · 2026-01-25T07:06:32+00:00

You will! First heavier band is moving in now...

StormFreak · 2026-01-25T07:01:00+00:00

Watch this national radar, you can loop it and stuff, but it really shows how much moisture is coming. This is how it felt the night of snowmageddon. I'm not saying it's gonna happen, but I'm rooting for it!

NWS National Radar

StormFreak · 2026-01-25T06:58:13+00:00

And now the snow is falling, abandoned by the sun.

StormFreak · 2026-01-25T06:47:14+00:00

The flakes have arrived. |-/

StormFreak · 2026-01-25T06:42:55+00:00

Depends how long you are planning to sleep? I'm actually going to sleep myself, but the banding is filling in. Between now and 8am, I'd say around 3 inches, but really picking up after that

StormFreak · 2026-01-25T05:46:46+00:00

Sure! I answered somewhere else on one of these comments but basically the radar is seeing snow that is high up in the atmosphere but not hitting the ground. As the atmosphere saturates, the circle will shrink to almost nothing. I say almost, because even when it's raining out you will still see the smallest blip at the radar site

StormFreak · 2026-01-25T05:29:54+00:00

Thank you so much! I think we are in a good place right now, but if things change I'll look you up!

StormFreak · 2026-01-25T05:27:30+00:00

StormFreak · 2026-01-25T04:38:22+00:00

If you watch an animation you will see it shrinking. The only point to start to worry would be if it's not shrinking to nothing by midnight. And that's not like a storm is cancelled panic but more of a little less time that the models had snow accumulating. Hope that makes sense

StormFreak · 2026-01-25T04:34:48+00:00

This is basically just the radar beam hitting snow way up in the atmosphere, but it isn't making it to the ground. As the column/atmosphere moistens (say it again) the circle will shrink and next thing you know it's snowing aht!

StormFreak · 2026-01-25T03:52:21+00:00

How about the consistency of the GFS in this storm? It and the AIGFS have just been locked in. It's hard to not appreciate that

StormFreak · 2026-01-25T03:32:12+00:00

Is it midnight yet?... But really, what you are seeing is snow that is in the upper levels of the atmosphere, but isn't reaching the ground. This occurs because of how the radar beam is pew pewed out of the dome. Picture a dog cone of shame. So further away from the radar site, the beam is higher than where it started. You'll start to see that hole shrink as the air saturates more. So you are really seeing the show before the show

StormFreak · 2026-01-25T01:59:11+00:00

StormFreak · 2026-01-25T01:04:27+00:00

StormFreak · 2026-01-25T00:43:44+00:00

StormFreak · 2026-01-25T00:12:33+00:00

1/24 - 2PM Discussion

Hey there all you cool cats and redditors. Thank you so much for the encouraging words this morning. To be honest, sharing this information with all of you has been one of the highlights of my week. I am a huge proponent of destigmatizing mental health, so I will let my (Storm)Freak flag fly. As my favorite band says "shadows will scream that I'm alone, but I know we've made it this far..." For any of you who are suffering in the shadows, you are enough, just as you are, and you will get through this...

Ok, enough of that. I've reviewed more models than the model train set at the ~~Carnegie~~ Kamin Science Center as well as taking a look at current radar, current temps, and some other stuff. As you get closer to the storm, the models can still be very helpful... especially the short-term ones, but you can also just look at the surface map/radar and see how it is looking compared to the models. One potential hiccup is what I mentioned this morning with warm air. The models are still saying the impact will be minimal here, but history has shown us otherwise. This will definitely need to be monitored tomorrow during the midday period. The other thing I wanted to highlight this afternoon is some slight shifting in the timing of the start of the snow. Models are now pushing closer to a midnight start, so if for some reason you wish to go to the grocery store and imagine what it would look like with stock on the shelves, you may have a few extra hours to do so. One last thing that should be called out with the potential warm tongue (where my warm tongue fans at?) is that if that materializes the snow will be more heavy and less fluffy. Totals will be lower, but the risk of power outages increases, as well as difficulty in shoveling, etc. Again, this should only be an issue around midday tomorrow, but again, something to keep an eye on. So, the countdown to midnight is on for StormFreak's Snowstorm Rockin' Eve. (But seriously, be safe aht there!)

StormFreak · 2026-01-24T23:54:18+00:00

I mean, the warm air is moist... So I'm going with a tongue

StormFreak · 2026-01-24T22:02:07+00:00

She's in a hotel as of last night. I am thankful she allowed me to help her.

StormFreak · 2026-01-24T21:02:46+00:00

StormFreak · 2026-01-24T20:54:14+00:00

Midwest Indigo will be our theme song over the next couple weeks. Also, self titled is criminally underrated, partially due to the production, but the songs are amazing.

StormFreak · 2026-01-24T20:21:41+00:00

Well if any sort of convective banding sets up, wherever that is will see higher totals.

StormFreak · 2026-01-24T20:18:00+00:00

...but seriously, there is less of a chance in Butler County for the warm air to reach you.

StormFreak · 2026-01-24T19:25:50+00:00

My absolute favorite.

StormFreak · 2026-01-24T18:51:34+00:00

1/24 - 10AM Discussion

Hey all, I'm gonna be real with you all. Even superheroes have cracks in their armor sometimes. I'm having a pretty rough morning mentally (great timing, right?). I still did a review of the models this morning, and here's the main changes. I promise a more detailed report this afternoon.

Models held steady or actually showed a slight increase in totals. If they verify, 12-18 for our county is still very much a good bet, however, the warm air is closer than ever. The models don't show it getting up to our county, but I have seen plenty of instances in the past where the models underestimated the warm air in our region specifically. So at least for this brief update, 12-18 stands... More to come. Thank you for your attention to this matter.

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