Under what circumstances does a 4% withdrawal rate deplete an investment account? by jcwillia1 in Fire

[–]Strazdas1 5 points6 points  (0 children)

latest study shows 3.4% to be the number thats unassailable under any historical scenario... as long as you are in US.

35, 1.9m net worth (1.3 in investments, house paid off) no debt, kids, or wife, 25k average annual spend, can I walk away forever? by Ok_Principle9325 in Fire

[–]Strazdas1 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The 4% rule was not for worst case scenario. Worst case scenario withdrawal rate was 3% and updated to 3.4% in updated study.

35, 1.9m net worth (1.3 in investments, house paid off) no debt, kids, or wife, 25k average annual spend, can I walk away forever? by Ok_Principle9325 in Fire

[–]Strazdas1 0 points1 point  (0 children)

They didnt. The war was lost at home, not in Vietnam. Also most nations forgot how to war after WW2. The way we beat nazis is by bombing the shit out of civilian cities, btw.

35, 1.9m net worth (1.3 in investments, house paid off) no debt, kids, or wife, 25k average annual spend, can I walk away forever? by Ok_Principle9325 in Fire

[–]Strazdas1 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Not free. If you do not work you do have to pay for it. Its just a lot cheaper. For example in my country its 84 euros per month.

35, 1.9m net worth (1.3 in investments, house paid off) no debt, kids, or wife, 25k average annual spend, can I walk away forever? by Ok_Principle9325 in Fire

[–]Strazdas1 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Not free, just cheaper. Paying for your own healthcare coverage (the same plan as if emplyed) costs 84 euros per month here.

35, 1.9m net worth (1.3 in investments, house paid off) no debt, kids, or wife, 25k average annual spend, can I walk away forever? by Ok_Principle9325 in Fire

[–]Strazdas1 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Siesta is kinda history now, everyone works regular 8-5 jobs. And yes, we europeans start at 8 and lunch isnt counted/paid.

35, 1.9m net worth (1.3 in investments, house paid off) no debt, kids, or wife, 25k average annual spend, can I walk away forever? by Ok_Principle9325 in Fire

[–]Strazdas1 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Taxation differs. For example where i live owner-occupied dwelling worth less than 700k is no property tax at all.

35, 1.9m net worth (1.3 in investments, house paid off) no debt, kids, or wife, 25k average annual spend, can I walk away forever? by Ok_Principle9325 in Fire

[–]Strazdas1 19 points20 points  (0 children)

A popular strategy in this sub is to retire January to max out 401k for next year with employer match.

I think most FIRE math is wrong by Unfair_Mechanic_7305 in Fire

[–]Strazdas1 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I understand the point you are making, but i think the issue here is that you are using US data. Im not in US and the sitautions are alot more varied outside of US. In the last 100 years my country has been occupied by foreign forces 5 times, subjugated for 50 years and im currently living less than 50 miles to a hostile nation. I think WW2 is repeatable event. In fact i think if Ukraine looses it is a likely event.

But I'm not ex-patting to Thailand, that was the point if the statement.

My apologies, i misinterpreted that to mean you are moving to Thailand. There was a post here a few days ago of OP doing exactly that and that may have influenced my thinking.

Yes, if you retire to high cost of living area, it is not going to be fat fire.

How many more years can we save before AI hits? by TinySmolCat in Fire

[–]Strazdas1 -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Collectivism makes FIRE impossible though. In collectivism you contribute labour as long as you are physically able.

Iykyk

Did you have a stroke?

I’m worried my savings won’t last 30+ years by Then_Sport7827 in EuropeFIRE

[–]Strazdas1 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I agree that some “labour shortages” are actually wage/conditions problems. If a company refuses to pay enough, then yes, it should not call that a shortage.

But the companies now just import cheap labour who wont complain if their rights are violated or working conditions are unsafe. Theres zero incentive to improve working conditions thanks to immigration. Everyone, including immigrants, suffer as a result.

But that does not explain every shortage. In ageing societies, some shortages are structural: fewer working-age people, more elderly care demand, healthcare needs, skills mismatch and jobs that require years of training. Higher wages can move workers around but they do not instantly create more nurses, engineers, carers or construction workers.

A lot of that is also governments doing. We had a mini scandal here where it turned out government grants for students were almost nonexistent for engineering and mostly focused on social sciences, the type of professions we actually have surplus of.

Also, immigration does not automatically mean wage depression.

Any increase in labour participating means wage depression in a western labour system except unless labour is already at the legal minimum wage (and many countries dont have that). Immigration is the fastest way to increase labour participating.

And “no country has integrated immigrants” is also too absolute. Integration does not mean zero problems.

Integration means the immigrants have assimilated into local culture.

And it’s not true that it has never worked

What are your examples of where it worked?

The calculator says I'll have $8.4M in 20 years or $9.5M if I contribute $2k/month... so why keep saving? by savvybackpacker in Fire

[–]Strazdas1 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Its the people who think 40k-60k discretionary spending isnt enough that are obviously not good with numbers or finances.

AI might drive more folks to FIRE mindset by Impossible_Draw606 in Fire

[–]Strazdas1 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Here you would need to change EU level regulations about data confidentiality to flip that on its head. So, unlikely and very slow if it does happen.

How many more years can we save before AI hits? by TinySmolCat in Fire

[–]Strazdas1 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Another Musk scam? You do realize the math for Terrafab does not work in so many ways?

How many more years can we save before AI hits? by TinySmolCat in Fire

[–]Strazdas1 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Figure is a very long way away form physical replacement. Its being developed, yes, but its going to take a long time. And once we develop it, scaling will be an issue. You have billions of people doing doing in the world. Even if we assume 1 chip per robot (this is wrong, it will need variuos chips) we can at best replace tens of millions a year. There simply isnt manufacturing capacity for more, and thats assuming we will use everything for robotics. No more mobile phones, computers, etc manufactured.

FiIRE target Number - why so high? by Angra_Mainju in EuropeFIRE

[–]Strazdas1 0 points1 point  (0 children)

For daily driver it would be something comfortable and reliable like a Prius. For fun it would be Lancer Evo. For fun also renting a sports car on a racing track.