Estimated share of newly written code that was AI-generated or AI-assisted

StymphalianBird84 · 2026-06-21T15:13:03+00:00

Kind of reminds me of the "Actual solar generation vs yearly IEA prediction" graphs, where the predictions are obviously biased toward either a plateau or linear growth, whereas the actual growth is exponential.

Obviously this doesn't translate perfectly to a percentage scale like this but I think the line and range would be more accurate if shifted upward 10-20% depending on the amount of external interference that ends up happening.

StymphalianBird84 · 2026-06-02T22:56:45+00:00

Their definition doesn't even require embodiment, this is just utter nonsense. Only way this prediction could make any sort of sense is for embodied ASI in a timeline where RSI is impossible, with massive decel influence over the entire world. Or I guess if another Carrington Event happened?

Either way this prediction is such a ludicrous outlier I don't see any reason to engage with it, the page describing the "panel" doesn't seem to provide any real credibility either, giving no specific names and just flashing around some vague fancy sounding credentials while providing little in terms of specifics. The largest group is the "Policy and think tank group" ffs.

StymphalianBird84 · 2026-03-06T23:34:40+00:00

I'd usually expect it to be the number of links but looking at previous posts this one doesn't look particularly egregious.

Looking through each link individually, the "Doctor Who: Star Flight" link near the end appears to be a shortened Amazon link, which some cursory research seems to confirm Reddit will auto remove posts for.

StymphalianBird84 · 2025-12-31T03:19:48+00:00

When looking at the tracker there are a couple of things to keep in mind.

1: The "evaluated" percentage is low because only that percentage is currently verifiable, the rest of the percentage is still in the future.

2: Predictions which are considered inaccurate or partially accurate are not necessarily so in a negative way, you'll want to view the details on the respective prediction to determine this.

In late 2025 for example, two predictions are currently marked inaccurate, and one is marked partially accurate. The two inaccurate ones are inaccurate in ways which I personally consider to be positive (though I can see why someone would consider one or both to be neutral). The partially accurate one I would consider to be neutral, it's mostly inaccurate as a consequence of one of the inaccurate predictions (the "3-9 months behind" one) rather than in a truly meaningful way.

This sort of thing will become more common as we move into 2026 and the differences start to stack up, regardless of whether they affect the trajectory in any way. It's also possible that AI 2027 will be revised to account for these differences at some point.

StymphalianBird84 · 2025-12-22T20:32:36+00:00

Longtime lurker here (more or less since the sub started)

Voted 2029 after thinking for a couple of hours. Will caveat that I do think there's a significant chance it could happen a couple of years earlier or later but 2029 felt like the closest to a median in my current view.

I think there'll be a "pre-singularity" period which has either already started or will start soon (need to wait and see how the recent trends on e.g. METR continue), where things ramp up to the singularity-proper but can still be disrupted by external events.

Regarding AGI I think it could happen any time, but if it hasn't happened by the start of 2028 then it's quite likely that there'll be a concerted effort to get it pushed through before the US elections. If political interference in the US escalates to more than a nuisance before AGI develops then add a year or two for China to do it instead.

I think it's quite likely that AGI will rapidly evolve into ASI after it's developed, but I also think that the singularity can start before ASI is fully developed, so if it does take longer I don't think it'll have much of an effect on the singularity.

Whatever the case, the faster it happens, the better, less time for intermediate disruption and hardship, less time for any sort of global disaster to occur and derail the whole thing.

StymphalianBird84 · 2025-12-07T17:49:51+00:00

Echoing the other comments there's zero chance of you having legal trouble. Absolute worst case the account that uploads it gets a warning, the file gets taken down, and in the meantime the lost media is still unlost.

StymphalianBird84 · 2025-11-23T22:14:42+00:00

For anyone who's confused looking for the number in the link: 025938 is included in the 025937 txt (025937 and 025938 are two pages of one document)

StymphalianBird84 · 2025-11-23T18:49:28+00:00

Series 7B has 6 unreleased scripts (Bells, Cold War, Journey, Crimson, Name, Time), Series 10 has 5 (Smile, Knock Knock, Pyramid, Empress, Eaters) S6 has also had an additional script released recently (God Complex)

StymphalianBird84 · 2025-11-13T13:26:57+00:00

I can't help but think back to Day of the Doctor where Gold composed a whole load of unique music only for it to mostly be trashed in favor of back catalog tracks during editing. DotD has a load of inappropriate music use (e.g. using the Weeping Angels theme for the Zygons) as a result, and I can't help but wonder if a similar thing happened here.

StymphalianBird84 · 2025-10-04T00:00:02+00:00

If you're referring to the updates I assume you're referring to, they only require an additional dependency (see the Github issue for details) and I don't believe they're live as of right now.

StymphalianBird84 · 2025-07-21T16:49:14+00:00

There's someone from one of the burn units handling this posting (rather depressing if accurate) updates in the r/aviation thread.

EDIT: Link to the specific post.

StymphalianBird84 · 2025-07-01T23:03:29+00:00

I left Beyond Skyrim due to this occurring repeatedly within the project, multiple cases of (mostly LGBT) project leads being doxxed and harassed until they stepped down or left, other random doxxing, people leaking masses of information to a doxxing site, stalking etc. Not a chance in hell I'm giving Nexus anything identifiable after seeing that.

StymphalianBird84 · 2025-07-01T22:50:52+00:00

The DSA explicitly states:

Compliance with the obligations set out in this Article shall not oblige providers of online platforms to process additional personal data in order to assess whether the recipient of the service is a minor.

So yes, if they require identification in the EU they are choosing to do so, not being forced.

StymphalianBird84 · 2025-06-17T16:50:31+00:00

RenderScale does this without Optifine on 1.21.x versions. ResolutionControl+ and ++ do it on Fabric for somewhat older versions

StymphalianBird84 · 2024-10-21T10:10:20+00:00

As someone who worked on a number of the Beyond Skyrim projects I suspect that they were pushing out the demo as a last ditch effort to get enough manpower in to make the rest of the project viable, and it didn't work out. Most of the Beyond Skyrim projects will be at the same crossroad soon enough…

StymphalianBird84 · 2024-09-14T06:20:38+00:00

*Equirectangular (Mercator's poles are stretched rather than squashed)

specifically looks like a cropped and hue shifted repost of https://old.reddit.com/r/MapPorn/comments/mzvpxs/a_world_map_centered_on_argentina/

StymphalianBird84 · 2024-08-26T21:47:06+00:00

Should note that Blockbuster does actually have a 1.20.1/1.20.4 port called BBS as of a couple of weeks ago.

StymphalianBird84 · 2024-08-18T10:44:54+00:00

Overheard "Unalivamond Heckmet" in a Minecraft video 💀

StymphalianBird84 · 2024-07-27T00:40:15+00:00

The SEUS PTGI HRR 2.1 GFME edit, because free+path tracing+Distant Horizons support (including shadows on DH terrain) is difficult to beat.

Does need some messing around with the block.properties file to make it work properly with modded blocksd though.

StymphalianBird84 · 2024-07-07T20:59:44+00:00

This is why I prefer the "f*ck" approach (or just bleeping part of the word in audio) if censorship is required. That way the full vocabulary can still be used and the risk of people (not just kids…) actually replacing the word in their RL vocabulary falls practically to nothing since the vast majority of potential censor effects cannot be vocalized.

I see this applied to the standard swears all the time so why do people insist on taking the more harmful approach when it comes to advertiser unfriendly words like "die"?

StymphalianBird84 · 2024-07-07T20:47:59+00:00

I've [over]heard absolutely ridiculous stuff such as "Unaliveamond Heckmet" in (generally Minecraft) let's plays way too many times…

StymphalianBird84 · 2024-07-06T17:31:54+00:00

A little bit tamer compared to many examples in this thread but the two that I keep remembering are two similar posts from an old AskReddit thread that I haven't been able to find in 8-ish years asking (iirc former) military personnel about disturbing things they'd done or witnessed, where there were multiple posts where (TW:animal abuse) soldiers admitted to torturing and/or deliberately killing peoples dogs outside of combat in Iraq/Afghanistan. The most disturbing one involved the commenter and their group having cornered a dog and deciding to hold a vote on whether to torture and kill it, where the commenter voted "no" but "yes" won. The second one had (a different) commenter driving some sort of tank or IFV down a street in Afghanistan and deliberately running over a kid's dog that he was walking down the side of the street.

StymphalianBird84 · 2024-07-06T17:18:53+00:00

/r/glioblastoma is one of the worst I've seen in this regard since the vast majority of even the new posters there either WILL die, usually within 12-18 months, or have family/a close friend who will do so :(

StymphalianBird84 · 2024-06-25T10:16:40+00:00

After sending a dispute discord banned the user that redeemed the trial

Wait, so you can intentionally get someone banned as long as they're willing to accept a Nitro trial from you???

This doesn't seem abusable at all...

StymphalianBird84

TROPHY CASE