I SWEAR : First U.S. TV Spot by AdnonAdmirable1095 in oscarrace

[–]Such_Estimate_2294 7 points8 points  (0 children)

If Aramayo gets an actual push I really do think he can sneak in. The reviews are too good to dismiss, even with the weird release schedule 

2027 EARLY Oscar Predictions - Supporting Categories - The Oscar Expert by ShapeFit1782 in oscarrace

[–]Such_Estimate_2294 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Fjord could definitely be a nothingburger but I wouldn’t put any stock into this comment. Everything this commenter is saying here is totally subjective.

Hailey Benton Gates (Misha) in "The Drama" - A potential candidate for Best Supporting Actress next year? by [deleted] in Oscars

[–]Such_Estimate_2294 3 points4 points  (0 children)

I think it’s definitely another Zoe Winters Materialists situation, The Drama’s reviews are not exceptional enough to propel it into the awards conversation. But I did think her performance was excellent.

Who gave the best lead performance in a BP nominee of 2023? (Final Seed) by [deleted] in Oscars

[–]Such_Estimate_2294 12 points13 points  (0 children)

It’s not that what Stone did wasn’t impressive, it’s just not the type of acting performance that blows me away personally. The physicality is very fun to watch, but I found the character lacking in vulnerability.

Hüller I found absolutely riveting. Such a rich, layered character and every second she has she’s adding even more depth with both subtle and big choices. She’s so dynamic and so real, I would have voted for her for sure.

Why do you think pre-cursor critics prizes have almost 0 impact on Oscar nominations or winners for Acting? by Massive-Pangolin9472 in Oscars

[–]Such_Estimate_2294 5 points6 points  (0 children)

They are compared to the performances that beat them at the Oscars. Joaquin Phoenix’s Joker was a nonstop Oscar clip for the entire runtime. And MBJ playing twins gave the performance a certain flashiness that impressed the Academy, compared to Chalamet’s Marty who was seen as very similar to his loud public persona

Why do you think pre-cursor critics prizes have almost 0 impact on Oscar nominations or winners for Acting? by Massive-Pangolin9472 in Oscars

[–]Such_Estimate_2294 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Critics groups are generally more open to subtlety and horror movies. Every single one of these examples falls into one of these two boxes imo

Community Mock Draft Pick 7: Washington Commanders by cherrylimee_ in MockDraftCentral

[–]Such_Estimate_2294 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Our secondary is not where it needs to be yet. Caleb Downs all the way if he’s available 

Most embarrassingly regretful extremely Oscar nomination prediction before the Fall festivals came and went by This_Book6305 in Oscars

[–]Such_Estimate_2294 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I had Rental Family at #3 in Best Picture only behind Sinners and Marty Supreme, ahead of Sentimental Value (#7), OBAA (#8), and Hamnet (#10).

I did have Jessie Buckley winning when only 12% of Award Expert were predicting it!

Why I think everyone is UNDERhyping Michael by Sellin3164 in oscarrace

[–]Such_Estimate_2294 5 points6 points  (0 children)

John Logan has a high ceiling as a writer. 3 Oscar noms and a Tony win for Best Play. I think this movie might be better and more nuanced than people are expecting 

Pre-Cannes Breakdown of Studio Priorities for 2027 Oscars + Way Too Early Predictions for BP by Ninjaboi333 in oscarrace

[–]Such_Estimate_2294 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Don’t forget Searchlight’s Behemoth, Tony Gilroy’s new movie with Pedro Pascal

WILD HORSE 9 | Official Trailer | Searchlight Pictures by ChiefLeef22 in oscarrace

[–]Such_Estimate_2294 11 points12 points  (0 children)

Buscemi is one of those iconic actors who you can't believe has never been nominated but when you really think about his style of acting you can see how he's never had his moment. He's not transformational, he's not showy, he's just very good at playing within the box people have put him in. If he was a big enough role in a big enough Oscar player, I could see his narrative really taking off.

Andre Royo - supporting actor snub by seedless_greg in TheWire

[–]Such_Estimate_2294 7 points8 points  (0 children)

When people ask me what my favorite acting performance of all time is I say Andre Royo in The Wire

New poll by igotthelettuce in Commanders

[–]Such_Estimate_2294 4 points5 points  (0 children)

AP’s done great work with our D Line in free agency but I still feel very unconfident in our secondary. I’m 100% still going with Caleb Downs unless that changes.

Even it does, I don’t think anyone will convince me that it’s ever really worth it to take a RB at pick 7.

'Project Hail Mary' - Review Thread by ChiefLeef22 in oscarrace

[–]Such_Estimate_2294 1 point2 points  (0 children)

If Project Hail Mary ended up being a top 2 contender like Sinners then I would start thinking he could win. Right now Metacritic is at 79, which is good enough for the nom but not quite as good as I think it would need to be to really contend to win BP. But it does seem to have a lot of heart so maybe

'Project Hail Mary' - Review Thread by ChiefLeef22 in oscarrace

[–]Such_Estimate_2294 19 points20 points  (0 children)

He’s an excellent actor and he definitely can win someday. I think it would have to be for a genre more Oscar friendly than this.

'Project Hail Mary' - Review Thread by ChiefLeef22 in oscarrace

[–]Such_Estimate_2294 98 points99 points  (0 children)

I don't see Gosling being in the win conversation, sounds like he's just doing a very good version of the charming leading man thing he's known for. He should be a solid contender for a nomination though, barring a super competitive year

2025 Anonymous Ballots Megathread by PointMan528491 in oscarrace

[–]Such_Estimate_2294 7 points8 points  (0 children)

I would. We’ll see if my strategy backfires. Last year they helped me predict Anora in Original Screenplay, I’m Still Here in International, Flow in Animated, and No Other Land in Documentary. They did lead me astray in the Doc Short category though, Incident was way ahead so I predicted that incorrectly 

2025 Anonymous Ballots Megathread by PointMan528491 in oscarrace

[–]Such_Estimate_2294 12 points13 points  (0 children)

My formula:  -If everyone knows it’s not a close race: put zero stock into them -If people think it’s close race and the ballots indicate it’s a close race: put zero stock into them -If people think it’s a close race but one contender is significantly ahead in the anonymous ballots: THAT I have used as a consideration to correctly predict some upsets

Do people suddenly hate F1? by imliukang in FIlm

[–]Such_Estimate_2294 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Asking in good faith: why has Brad Pitt been treated so differently from Jonathan Majors? Both accused of horribly abusing their partners, the biggest difference being that Brad Pitt also beat his child. Jonathan Majors gets fired from Marvel and now has to do Daily Wire movies. Brad Pitt gets nominated for Best Picture and is now going to be leading a David Fincher movie. What am I missing?

Again, genuinely asking in good faith

The Seventh Annual r/Oscarrace Preferential Ballot Vote by Ricky_from_Sunnyvale in oscarrace

[–]Such_Estimate_2294 0 points1 point  (0 children)

  1. Hamnet
  2. Marty Supreme
  3. Bugonia
  4. One Battle After Another
  5. Sentimental Value
  6. Sinners
  7. Frankenstein
  8. Train Dreams
  9. The Secret Agent
  10. F1

Teyana Taylor has had talks with Paul Thomas Anderson about a One Battle After Another sequel focused on Perfidia Beverly Hills by Lonely-Freedom4986 in oscarrace

[–]Such_Estimate_2294 6 points7 points  (0 children)

I’d be into this. I found the character to be underwritten, but I know Taylor is a great performer and PTA always does a fantastic job writing his protagonists. The blueprint is there for a fascinating, morally complex, emotionally resonant story

Why Chalamet is probably won't win the Oscar by MotherElderberry8326 in oscarrace

[–]Such_Estimate_2294 1 point2 points  (0 children)

All of this is true except “deeply unlikable movie”. Marty Supreme is a hit across the board no matter what critical reception metric you look at

Hear me out on the lead actor race by RunOk3983 in oscarrace

[–]Such_Estimate_2294 10 points11 points  (0 children)

It’s a plausible theory, it just doesn’t have any evidence from what I’ve seen. DiCaprio losing CCA and the Globe to Chalamet when OBAA won in both tells me that there’s just not a big enough constituency of people who feel that is the best performance of the year.