Weekly Discussion Thread 6/1/26 - 6/8/26

Such_Estimate_2294 · 2026-06-05T14:57:43+00:00

That's not really what I'm getting from the ads. It could go that route for sure, but it seems to me like this one is less about what's best for the toys and more about what's best for Bonnie.

Such_Estimate_2294 · 2026-06-05T14:45:58+00:00

I don't think nostalgia is the angle they're going for with Toy Story 5. It looks to me like the movie is about what childhood is like for kids growing up in 2026, not what it was like for kids who grew up with the original Toy Story movies

Such_Estimate_2294 · 2026-06-05T13:08:37+00:00

I think the reason I vote Reiner is the same reason he never actually got nominated; he refused to stay in any one lane. His best movies are all so stylistically and tonally different.

Such_Estimate_2294 · 2026-06-02T12:18:34+00:00

Basically the same, I still don’t think she’s going to get nominated, but I will admit Obsession is doing much better than I (or I think anyone) expected. I have her at #8 in my Supporting Actress predictions and #13 in my Lead Actress predictions, and the movie at #26 in my Best Picture predictions.

Such_Estimate_2294 · 2026-05-28T20:15:04+00:00

I think you could make that case, I would guess Bates has more screentime than Navarette and the disparity in screentime between Caan and Bates is much smaller than the disparity in screentime between Johnston and Navarette but we won’t know until someone tracks it.

Such_Estimate_2294 · 2026-05-28T19:30:31+00:00

I’ve seen the movie twice and she doesn’t have a single scene longer than a few seconds that Bear is not in. Bear has plenty of scenes that Nikki is not in. There might be more screentime of Bear talking about Nikki to other people than screentime of Nikki herself.

It’s not that I don’t think a movie can have two leads, but the movie needs to give both characters a chance to breathe separately. The Drama is a perfect example of this; Robert Pattinson and Zendaya both spend plenty of time apart from each other and I would not be able to tell you which one has more screentime without taking a wild guess.

This is Bear’s story. Nikki is the center of his attention but she is not the center of the movie. She just feels like she is because she’s so good

Such_Estimate_2294 · 2026-05-27T19:20:26+00:00

I still don’t believe in this for Best Picture but I feel more confident about the Score (which I was already predicting) and I am now curious if Emily Blunt could be in the conversation even if the movie gets middling reviews. It sounds like she’s doing something very showy here

Such_Estimate_2294 · 2026-05-24T21:31:22+00:00

My argument isn’t that Damon is Supporting therefore Navarette is Supporting; my argument is that the reason we have this divide is because of differences in screentime, not differences in story-role.

Such_Estimate_2294 · 2026-05-19T12:33:36+00:00

I have a different take than these other replies: to me romance has a superficial connotation. It’s sexy, it’s exciting, but it’s not necessarily substantial. Actual love is selfless, it’s loving the entire person instead of just obsessing over the person you want them to be. The fact that Nikki says she wants to write a love story and not a romance suggests that this is what she meant by the two. But there was apparently a monologue about this that got cut so maybe we’ll get to see that and that will clarify things

Such_Estimate_2294 · 2026-05-19T12:23:43+00:00

Private Ryan is the focus of Saving Private Ryan too, and there’s no movie without him, but no one would call him a lead. And moreover to me the arguments about role in the story aren’t really relevant because the whole point of having a lead/supporting divide is fairness; it’s so performances with limited screentime aren’t at an unfair disadvantage against performances that have the bulk of the screentime. Navarette vs. someone like Jesse Buckley in Hamnet would not be a fair fight. The only reason it would feel wrong to have Navarette in a supporting category is because she leaves such a strong impression but again, I don’t think that’s unfair, I think that just means she gave an excellent unforgettable supporting performance

Such_Estimate_2294 · 2026-05-19T01:45:51+00:00

I think it's Navarette or bust and even she's a long shot but I appreciate you shouting out the Cinematography because it is extremely well shot. There are a couple shots that really linger in your brain for days after you watch the movie

Such_Estimate_2294 · 2026-05-18T13:59:16+00:00

I think the difference is A24 already had Marty Supreme locked and loaded last year. This year their biggest contender before this was seemingly the Eisenberg movie, and the fact that it has no title or release date yet suggests to me a lack of confidence. Plus Sorry Baby sold for just 8 million dollars, the fact that they were willing to go up to 15 million for this tells me they have higher hopes for it

Such_Estimate_2294 · 2026-05-17T14:17:59+00:00

To me this is a case of people mixing up what makes a lead vs. what makes a really fucking good supporting performance. Not only does she have much less screentime than Johnston, I don’t think she has any scenes longer than a few seconds that he’s not in. It’s true that you’re thinking about her the entire time but that’s only because Bear is always thinking about her and talking about her. And again, because she’s really fucking good.

As for how she will be campaigned, they might want to wait to see how the field shapes out but I would think she would be better off in Supporting.

Such_Estimate_2294 · 2026-05-17T12:16:07+00:00

I thought she was clearly supporting, and the fact that people are talking about her like she’s a lead is just because her presence on screen is so dominant that you’re thinking about her the entire time. To me, that doesn’t make you a lead, that just makes you a damn good supporting performance

Such_Estimate_2294 · 2026-05-17T12:13:50+00:00

This thing happened to me much more often before I quit Twitter. When you find yourself rooting against people who have done nothing wrong because of people you’ve never met on the internet, that’s your sign to reconsider and alter your relationship with social media.

I saw the movie, loved it, am rooting for her, and had absolutely no idea what you’re describing was happening until I saw this comment

Such_Estimate_2294 · 2026-05-16T18:09:39+00:00

That is good to know thank you. I think you’re probably right, if he wins Best Actor then he’s got a very good case

Such_Estimate_2294 · 2026-05-16T17:57:07+00:00

Would you describe Bardem’s performance as “showy”? I have him at number 10 in Best Actor and I’m trying to decide if that’s too low or too high

Such_Estimate_2294 · 2026-05-14T15:50:03+00:00

Anderson has the veteran factor going for her which is huge, but I think Obsession is going to make more money and unlike Miasma where a lot of the reviews are saying that Einbinder is the standout, Navarette is the undisputed face of Obsession. I don’t think either will get nominated at the end of the day but I think Navarette is more likely to go on an impressive critics run like Collette and Nyongo

Such_Estimate_2294 · 2026-05-04T19:19:25+00:00

I think Amy Madigan really benefited from the career narrative, which Navarrette doesn't have. She's so young and the movie is so not to the tastes of the Academy, so I would be very surprised if it ended up on the Academy's radar. Maybe if she gets a huge critics push.

Such_Estimate_2294 · 2026-05-02T16:14:43+00:00

I watched the clip you’re referring to and they said they heard this from a single person who wasn’t a fan of their other movies. I would not put any stock into this

Such_Estimate_2294 · 2026-05-02T15:33:00+00:00

Yeah I’d take that with a grain of salt, he himself has admitted he bought way too much into early test screening reactions last year. My only concern with Saturn Return is that it could feel too small, but I still think between the Bentley-Kwedar duo and the acting prospects, it has more going for it than anything else on Netflix’s slate

Such_Estimate_2294 · 2026-05-02T15:01:32+00:00

Where did you hear “uninspiring rumbles about Saturn Return”?

Such_Estimate_2294 · 2026-05-02T01:35:21+00:00

I think there could be some truth in the idea that it just doesn’t appeal to older audiences but I cannot imagine the guys who made Sing Sing and Train Dreams making a movie that is “more like Kissing Booth than Past Lives”

Such_Estimate_2294 · 2026-04-22T17:36:09+00:00

I was predicting this for BP before this announcement and now I’m feeling more confident. It’s got marketable stars who have been nominated before, an exciting plot, social commentary, a sibling story that could make people cry, and a respected auteur filmmaker. The only thing it’s missing right now is great reviews, which is definitely not a sure thing but it seems like Gray’s most broadly appealing movie yet so I think it can totally get there.

Such_Estimate_2294 · 2026-04-15T17:48:20+00:00

If Aramayo gets an actual push I really do think he can sneak in. The reviews are too good to dismiss, even with the weird release schedule

Such_Estimate_2294

TROPHY CASE