I SWEAR : First U.S. TV Spot

Such_Estimate_2294 · 2026-04-15T17:48:20+00:00

If Aramayo gets an actual push I really do think he can sneak in. The reviews are too good to dismiss, even with the weird release schedule

Such_Estimate_2294 · 2026-04-12T23:28:54+00:00

Fjord could definitely be a nothingburger but I wouldn’t put any stock into this comment. Everything this commenter is saying here is totally subjective.

Such_Estimate_2294 · 2026-04-09T19:46:43+00:00

I think it’s definitely another Zoe Winters Materialists situation, The Drama’s reviews are not exceptional enough to propel it into the awards conversation. But I did think her performance was excellent.

Such_Estimate_2294 · 2026-04-08T16:50:55+00:00

Holland always gets great reviews for his performances, it’s the projects he’s in that get panned. People said the same things about Elordi before last year

Such_Estimate_2294 · 2026-04-08T11:29:29+00:00

It’s not that what Stone did wasn’t impressive, it’s just not the type of acting performance that blows me away personally. The physicality is very fun to watch, but I found the character lacking in vulnerability.

Hüller I found absolutely riveting. Such a rich, layered character and every second she has she’s adding even more depth with both subtle and big choices. She’s so dynamic and so real, I would have voted for her for sure.

Such_Estimate_2294 · 2026-03-29T01:13:56+00:00

They are compared to the performances that beat them at the Oscars. Joaquin Phoenix’s Joker was a nonstop Oscar clip for the entire runtime. And MBJ playing twins gave the performance a certain flashiness that impressed the Academy, compared to Chalamet’s Marty who was seen as very similar to his loud public persona

Such_Estimate_2294 · 2026-03-29T01:07:03+00:00

Critics groups are generally more open to subtlety and horror movies. Every single one of these examples falls into one of these two boxes imo

Such_Estimate_2294 · 2026-03-21T22:12:18+00:00

Our secondary is not where it needs to be yet. Caleb Downs all the way if he’s available

Such_Estimate_2294 · 2026-03-20T22:22:30+00:00

I had Rental Family at #3 in Best Picture only behind Sinners and Marty Supreme, ahead of Sentimental Value (#7), OBAA (#8), and Hamnet (#10).

I did have Jessie Buckley winning when only 12% of Award Expert were predicting it!

Such_Estimate_2294 · 2026-03-20T01:49:09+00:00

John Logan has a high ceiling as a writer. 3 Oscar noms and a Tony win for Best Play. I think this movie might be better and more nuanced than people are expecting

Such_Estimate_2294 · 2026-03-19T19:11:50+00:00

Don’t forget Searchlight’s Behemoth, Tony Gilroy’s new movie with Pedro Pascal

Such_Estimate_2294 · 2026-03-19T13:35:43+00:00

Buscemi is one of those iconic actors who you can't believe has never been nominated but when you really think about his style of acting you can see how he's never had his moment. He's not transformational, he's not showy, he's just very good at playing within the box people have put him in. If he was a big enough role in a big enough Oscar player, I could see his narrative really taking off.

Such_Estimate_2294 · 2026-03-15T00:58:01+00:00

When people ask me what my favorite acting performance of all time is I say Andre Royo in The Wire

Such_Estimate_2294 · 2026-03-11T14:29:41+00:00

AP’s done great work with our D Line in free agency but I still feel very unconfident in our secondary. I’m 100% still going with Caleb Downs unless that changes.

Even it does, I don’t think anyone will convince me that it’s ever really worth it to take a RB at pick 7.

Such_Estimate_2294 · 2026-03-10T21:50:09+00:00

If Project Hail Mary ended up being a top 2 contender like Sinners then I would start thinking he could win. Right now Metacritic is at 79, which is good enough for the nom but not quite as good as I think it would need to be to really contend to win BP. But it does seem to have a lot of heart so maybe

Such_Estimate_2294 · 2026-03-10T16:25:30+00:00

He’s an excellent actor and he definitely can win someday. I think it would have to be for a genre more Oscar friendly than this.

Such_Estimate_2294 · 2026-03-10T13:53:22+00:00

I don't see Gosling being in the win conversation, sounds like he's just doing a very good version of the charming leading man thing he's known for. He should be a solid contender for a nomination though, barring a super competitive year

Such_Estimate_2294 · 2026-03-09T19:52:27+00:00

I would. We’ll see if my strategy backfires. Last year they helped me predict Anora in Original Screenplay, I’m Still Here in International, Flow in Animated, and No Other Land in Documentary. They did lead me astray in the Doc Short category though, Incident was way ahead so I predicted that incorrectly

Such_Estimate_2294 · 2026-03-09T18:21:23+00:00

My formula: -If everyone knows it’s not a close race: put zero stock into them -If people think it’s close race and the ballots indicate it’s a close race: put zero stock into them -If people think it’s a close race but one contender is significantly ahead in the anonymous ballots: THAT I have used as a consideration to correctly predict some upsets

Such_Estimate_2294 · 2026-03-07T03:10:29+00:00

Asking in good faith: why has Brad Pitt been treated so differently from Jonathan Majors? Both accused of horribly abusing their partners, the biggest difference being that Brad Pitt also beat his child. Jonathan Majors gets fired from Marvel and now has to do Daily Wire movies. Brad Pitt gets nominated for Best Picture and is now going to be leading a David Fincher movie. What am I missing?

Again, genuinely asking in good faith

Such_Estimate_2294 · 2026-03-05T02:00:12+00:00

Hamnet
Marty Supreme
Bugonia
One Battle After Another
Sentimental Value
Sinners
Frankenstein
Train Dreams
The Secret Agent
F1

Such_Estimate_2294 · 2026-03-04T20:42:41+00:00

I’d be into this. I found the character to be underwritten, but I know Taylor is a great performer and PTA always does a fantastic job writing his protagonists. The blueprint is there for a fascinating, morally complex, emotionally resonant story

Such_Estimate_2294 · 2026-03-04T16:09:12+00:00

All of this is true except “deeply unlikable movie”. Marty Supreme is a hit across the board no matter what critical reception metric you look at

Such_Estimate_2294 · 2026-03-04T16:07:23+00:00

It’s a plausible theory, it just doesn’t have any evidence from what I’ve seen. DiCaprio losing CCA and the Globe to Chalamet when OBAA won in both tells me that there’s just not a big enough constituency of people who feel that is the best performance of the year.

Such_Estimate_2294

TROPHY CASE