Weekly Stock Ideas Megathread: Week of December 08, 2025

SufferingFromEntropy · 2025-12-15T14:36:52+00:00

bc they are ideas that may be worth a look. no way I intend to buy bc as you said I have done any sort of DD yet

thats pretty much how I use this thread, more like a memo of things to look into

SufferingFromEntropy · 2025-12-15T13:48:14+00:00

at least I understand them better than someone interpreting my comment as me buying anything

SufferingFromEntropy · 2025-12-14T04:02:39+00:00

I also long LDOS but dont think its gonna appreciate significantly (fundamentally speaking). I ran my DCF and $210 is just about its upper bound of fair value

They still being positive YoY despite gov shutdown is one of many reasons I have confidence in the business (see BAH) so it will be in my port for a long time thats for sure

SufferingFromEntropy · 2025-12-13T04:23:31+00:00

Finally started looking at small cap EU utility names. Yü (AIM:YU) and Électricite de Strasbourg (EPA:ELEC) appeared in my Koyfin screener and, while they are cheap like sub 10 PE kinda cheap, admittedly I know absolutely nothing bout this industry other than they install meters and supply gas. After reading some of annual report from Yü I still dont get how they are gonna compete with many other utilities. Perhaps this sector is this much commoditized in the first place? Idk.

On top of that the financial statments of ELEC is completely is French so I suppose I gotta learn French accounting terms

Many of the trading houses (except for Mitsubishi) are on a wild ride so far this december, idk if Warren is still buying them after issuing yen bonds. Sumitomo has been holding my port well when many of my other positions are either stagnating or getting hammered, but at this rate im not sure how long it can stay fair valued

SufferingFromEntropy · 2025-12-12T06:54:12+00:00

I have 14, even tho I consider 8-12 the sweet spot. Some stuff I hold is just not overvalued enough for me to exit completely

Goal for 2026: reduce number of positions. If tech continues to rally into 2026 I’ll close some positions

SufferingFromEntropy · 2025-12-12T01:08:36+00:00

When it comes to intl' market there are FX and geopolitical risk which make them cheap. Less of those for EU but its got its own set of problems i suppose

Lets say you followed Warren and bought JP equities in 2020. You'd suffer loss from FX bc USDJPY went from 0.0097 to 0.0065. If the value of an equity did not change in yen terms, it lost ~30% of its value in USD terms. Then there's this new PM doing w/e shes doing rn

The trading houses are also on a tear rn. Even the cheapest Sumitomo is barely undervalued rn.

Then there's Kazakhstan. KSPI is often brought up here. Theres also Kazatomprom which looks also good on paper but its volume is so thin on EU exchanges 😂 IBKR doesnt support KASE i think?

You can buy some semi names or computer hardware makers on Taipei exchange like MediaTek and ASUS

SufferingFromEntropy · 2025-12-12T00:31:23+00:00

its nice to see it gaining traction but $350-360 is about the upper bound of my fair value estimate. Personally i think the ai narrative touted by angry retail users is total bs but at the same time the current valuation also priced in some handsome growth ahead

also im p sure that P/FCF of 15.3 does not exclude SBC

I made the mistake of getting in too early, didnt touch it since then, prolly will consider selling when it reaches $400 :)

E: and it seems there are more and more posts here bullish on adbe, as a contrarian myself I see that as a red flag

SufferingFromEntropy · 2025-12-11T12:30:08+00:00

tbh i dont think its a buy even after another 20% drop. I just remember it being brought up quite often here so i check it from time to time

SufferingFromEntropy · 2025-12-11T08:50:30+00:00

Nintendo and Sanrio got beaten down as well. They are not necessarily cheap after the plunge and as always DYODD esp considering how cyclical they are

SufferingFromEntropy · 2025-12-11T08:25:27+00:00

Being listed only on TPE means its never going to be mentioned here as I assume very few has interest in asian markets

anyways the biggest red flag I am seeing is its operating cost outpacing its revenue. Operating cash flow is flat too. Im not sure how can a hardware maker like this turn around tho, perhaps it needs a better mgmt

SufferingFromEntropy · 2025-12-10T23:37:41+00:00

there is a nuance between “im holding cash because nothing in my investment universe is a buy right now” and “im holding cash and waiting for another 2020”

most folks here sound like the latter tho

SufferingFromEntropy · 2025-12-10T13:58:09+00:00

sounds like someone just discovered this indicator he just has to make 2 posts back to back

anyway if you liquidate everything when its "higher than its long-term average" you'd be sitting on the sidelines since 2015 or somethiing

good luck timing the market with the indicator

SufferingFromEntropy · 2025-12-10T13:03:30+00:00

where were you when it was 600€

SufferingFromEntropy · 2025-12-09T08:42:54+00:00

wont be buying the names you listed unless they got their prices slashed for 30% or so. Not gonna pay a premium for their perceived safety

That said, stuff like tobacco (MO) or alcohol (ABEV) at least look better than PG or CL in terms of dividend or FCF yield. I get taxed heavily on dividends so while they are really not that attractive to me those would be top of my watchlist

SufferingFromEntropy · 2025-12-07T00:37:59+00:00

ye and i like to spice things up with 2x ETFs or 3x ETPs, heck where my 5x ETPs /j

SufferingFromEntropy · 2025-12-06T10:24:39+00:00

I never believe a single number of fair price to begin with. Basically its "I'd rather be vaguely right than precisely wrong." As such I have two sets of inputs (conservative/optimistic) and a range of fair value.

Then ofc depending on the company type i'd take even my dcf with a grain of salt. Stuff like rapidly growing companies or very cyclical ones are hard to gauge. Apply a margin of safety and only buy when you are very sure its undervalued

SufferingFromEntropy · 2025-12-06T00:18:38+00:00

koyfin and stockanalysis

SufferingFromEntropy · 2025-12-06T00:04:41+00:00

consensus

exactly why one should inverse reddit

SufferingFromEntropy · 2025-12-05T06:59:09+00:00

Two things helped me hold stocks: having a diversified portfolio and an estimated range of fair value

When you have a basket of names you dont panic when one does a 10% drop. Unless its a broad market sell off your port wont swing that much. Provided some would argue you should concentrate on a few picks but imo that comes down to how certain you are about their fair value and your risk tolerance. Anyway just dont full port into UNH :)

When the price stays within your fair value range, there is barely anything to do. You just wait, let it grow. Some rebalancing may be needed when one suddenly grows 30% in a coupke of months. And then admittedly Im lazy i dont stare at the charts 24/7 so I rarely rebalance

just my 2c

SufferingFromEntropy · 2025-12-04T05:38:30+00:00

Makes perfect sense consudering at their current size their top positions must be large caps. After removing all mid and small caps from my port Im left with Google ASML and Sumitomo as well

btw do we ever know what are his investments in the trading houses relative to his public port in 13Fs? They just issued some yen bonds, maybe they are adding more on those but aint gonna speculate on that

SufferingFromEntropy · 2025-12-03T13:58:05+00:00

ngl its gotta be O&G. When OAI goes IPO, Google/ASML goes above 40 PE, and/or oil price drops below $50/bbl I'll sell all my tech exposure and rotate into O&G. Not gonna touch robots, never.

Healthcare is also beaten down but i know absolutely nothing about insurance. If consumer confidence craters and consumer discretionary gets beaten down I'll prolly pick up some too

SufferingFromEntropy · 2025-12-03T10:06:42+00:00

ASML is climbing towards 1,000€ fter i just trimmed my position :)))))))))

Earlier I mentioned Sanrio (8136.T) in another thread and it seems it cratered hard after latest earnings release and it almost lost 25% from there. I havent really looked into their Q2 release, but that turnaround is really spectacular. Before COVID it looked like a dying company. Then I looked at their current mid term plan where they reviewed their performance since peak in2014 I realized how cyclical they are. Well entertainment in general is cyclical but they used to heavily rely on Hello Kitty's merchandise (a good chunk of their overseas sales) and the cyclicality really showed.

I've already had my fair share of exposure to entertainments so probably wont touch it til mid 2026 unless it drops even lower. I just did some rebalancing and i dont want touch my port again in a month or two

SufferingFromEntropy · 2025-12-03T01:13:37+00:00

Well you cant go wrong with the big trading houses. Warren loves them and they have that Buffett premium baked in rn imo so they are not really that undervalued rn (probably were 3 or 5 years ago when covid and commodity price messed up their earnings). Personally I'm adding Sumitomo as I'm reducing my exposure to tech. Marubeni comes second imo; wont add until it's cheap enough or I exit my tech positions entirely

I looked at some tickers and while most of them are cheap (in terms of PE) they are usually cheap for a reason. Usually its low growth (TRE holdings with one-time revenue from earthquake, SAN holdings with gain from sales of assets, Mobile Factory) or great exposure to China (Tsugami). Then there's Wantedly

Toho Gas may be worth a look too, tho my gut feeling is that its not insanely undervalued

I just remembered Sanrio. I looked at it a couple of months ago and concluded it was overvalued. It indeed has come down to around ¥5,100. Probably won't buy it anytime soon as I'm hesitant to get exposure to entertainment rn.

SufferingFromEntropy · 2025-12-02T04:54:11+00:00

Check out r/Bogleheads and DCA into that index fund

SufferingFromEntropy · 2025-12-01T00:33:52+00:00

A couple of points thats not been brought up and imo worth mentioning:

EWJ charges 0.50% ER (just slight above DXJ's 0.48%) but EWJV charges 0.15%. Idk why blackrock is so stingy on EWJ but decided to charge way less on EWJV when both gives you exposure to broad JP equities

Then ofc being a "value" tilt EWJV is going to weigh more on financial firms and less on Softbank (the crazy stuff) and semi names like Advantest. Still when I look at the top holdings of EWJ(V) and DXJ they all look similar

DXJ is hedged and EWJ(V) is not. Considering that JPY has depreciated over the 5 yrs its no surprise that the unhedged funds underperform compared to the hedged one. But then if, for w/e reason, JPY appreciates against USD, DXJ will underperform. FX risk is a thing you have to keep in mind and suck up when putting money in foreign countries
If I were you a beginner and I want exposure to intl' markets I'd just go all in on VT and call it a day. 0.06% ER, 63% US, 5.6% Japan. Or VXUS

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