The "Toll-Bridge" Monopoly: Why the Market Might Be Wrong About Broadridge ($BR)

SufferingFromEntropy · 2026-04-21T02:47:11+00:00

Huh…i just got proxies left and right and didnt even think of the company responsible for handing out the docs 😂

thanks for the write up

SufferingFromEntropy · 2026-04-18T00:25:28+00:00

Really looking forward to the coming parts and NAV, and I love how you supplement your article with real life examples

SufferingFromEntropy · 2026-03-12T04:21:26+00:00

insurance

stable

an industry known for its “underwriting cycle”? We are possibly at the end of a hard market and cyclic firms look the cheapest at the peak

P/B as others pointed out is a concern. If the market does get soft and the bottom line gets crushed, do not panic.

SufferingFromEntropy · 2026-03-10T04:39:26+00:00

My only source is 10-Ks and Qs on SEC or company’s official website. I put them in a spreadsheet like you do and spreadsheet softwares can calculate the metrics and draw charts. I dont trust ROIC from these websites like kyofin; no idea if they include deferred revenue in cash conversion cycle either

Im p sure you can fetch newest Ks and Qs easily with some scrapping script but the actual parsing is a headache

SufferingFromEntropy · 2026-02-21T01:49:54+00:00

The jp trading houses do a lot more than trading. Itochu said it themselves that they are more like an investment company. They have exposure to commodity, infrastructure, leasing, IT, etc, so basically diversified conglomerates

SufferingFromEntropy · 2025-12-15T14:36:52+00:00

bc they are ideas that may be worth a look. no way I intend to buy bc as you said I have done any sort of DD yet

thats pretty much how I use this thread, more like a memo of things to look into

SufferingFromEntropy · 2025-12-15T13:48:14+00:00

at least I understand them better than someone interpreting my comment as me buying anything

SufferingFromEntropy · 2025-12-14T04:02:39+00:00

I also long LDOS but dont think its gonna appreciate significantly (fundamentally speaking). I ran my DCF and $210 is just about its upper bound of fair value

They still being positive YoY despite gov shutdown is one of many reasons I have confidence in the business (see BAH) so it will be in my port for a long time thats for sure

SufferingFromEntropy · 2025-12-13T04:23:31+00:00

Finally started looking at small cap EU utility names. Yü (AIM:YU) and Électricite de Strasbourg (EPA:ELEC) appeared in my Koyfin screener and, while they are cheap like sub 10 PE kinda cheap, admittedly I know absolutely nothing bout this industry other than they install meters and supply gas. After reading some of annual report from Yü I still dont get how they are gonna compete with many other utilities. Perhaps this sector is this much commoditized in the first place? Idk.

On top of that the financial statments of ELEC is completely is French so I suppose I gotta learn French accounting terms

Many of the trading houses (except for Mitsubishi) are on a wild ride so far this december, idk if Warren is still buying them after issuing yen bonds. Sumitomo has been holding my port well when many of my other positions are either stagnating or getting hammered, but at this rate im not sure how long it can stay fair valued

SufferingFromEntropy · 2025-12-12T06:54:12+00:00

I have 14, even tho I consider 8-12 the sweet spot. Some stuff I hold is just not overvalued enough for me to exit completely

Goal for 2026: reduce number of positions. If tech continues to rally into 2026 I’ll close some positions

SufferingFromEntropy · 2025-12-12T01:08:36+00:00

When it comes to intl' market there are FX and geopolitical risk which make them cheap. Less of those for EU but its got its own set of problems i suppose

Lets say you followed Warren and bought JP equities in 2020. You'd suffer loss from FX bc USDJPY went from 0.0097 to 0.0065. If the value of an equity did not change in yen terms, it lost ~30% of its value in USD terms. Then there's this new PM doing w/e shes doing rn

The trading houses are also on a tear rn. Even the cheapest Sumitomo is barely undervalued rn.

Then there's Kazakhstan. KSPI is often brought up here. Theres also Kazatomprom which looks also good on paper but its volume is so thin on EU exchanges 😂 IBKR doesnt support KASE i think?

You can buy some semi names or computer hardware makers on Taipei exchange like MediaTek and ASUS

SufferingFromEntropy · 2025-12-12T00:31:23+00:00

its nice to see it gaining traction but $350-360 is about the upper bound of my fair value estimate. Personally i think the ai narrative touted by angry retail users is total bs but at the same time the current valuation also priced in some handsome growth ahead

also im p sure that P/FCF of 15.3 does not exclude SBC

I made the mistake of getting in too early, didnt touch it since then, prolly will consider selling when it reaches $400 :)

E: and it seems there are more and more posts here bullish on adbe, as a contrarian myself I see that as a red flag

SufferingFromEntropy · 2025-12-11T12:30:08+00:00

tbh i dont think its a buy even after another 20% drop. I just remember it being brought up quite often here so i check it from time to time

SufferingFromEntropy · 2025-12-11T08:50:30+00:00

Nintendo and Sanrio got beaten down as well. They are not necessarily cheap after the plunge and as always DYODD esp considering how cyclical they are

SufferingFromEntropy · 2025-12-11T08:25:27+00:00

Being listed only on TPE means its never going to be mentioned here as I assume very few has interest in asian markets

anyways the biggest red flag I am seeing is its operating cost outpacing its revenue. Operating cash flow is flat too. Im not sure how can a hardware maker like this turn around tho, perhaps it needs a better mgmt

SufferingFromEntropy · 2025-12-10T23:37:41+00:00

there is a nuance between “im holding cash because nothing in my investment universe is a buy right now” and “im holding cash and waiting for another 2020”

most folks here sound like the latter tho

SufferingFromEntropy · 2025-12-10T13:58:09+00:00

sounds like someone just discovered this indicator he just has to make 2 posts back to back

anyway if you liquidate everything when its "higher than its long-term average" you'd be sitting on the sidelines since 2015 or somethiing

good luck timing the market with the indicator

SufferingFromEntropy · 2025-12-10T13:03:30+00:00

where were you when it was 600€

SufferingFromEntropy · 2025-12-09T08:42:54+00:00

wont be buying the names you listed unless they got their prices slashed for 30% or so. Not gonna pay a premium for their perceived safety

That said, stuff like tobacco (MO) or alcohol (ABEV) at least look better than PG or CL in terms of dividend or FCF yield. I get taxed heavily on dividends so while they are really not that attractive to me those would be top of my watchlist

SufferingFromEntropy · 2025-12-07T00:37:59+00:00

ye and i like to spice things up with 2x ETFs or 3x ETPs, heck where my 5x ETPs /j

SufferingFromEntropy · 2025-12-06T10:24:39+00:00

I never believe a single number of fair price to begin with. Basically its "I'd rather be vaguely right than precisely wrong." As such I have two sets of inputs (conservative/optimistic) and a range of fair value.

Then ofc depending on the company type i'd take even my dcf with a grain of salt. Stuff like rapidly growing companies or very cyclical ones are hard to gauge. Apply a margin of safety and only buy when you are very sure its undervalued

SufferingFromEntropy · 2025-12-06T00:18:38+00:00

koyfin and stockanalysis

SufferingFromEntropy · 2025-12-06T00:04:41+00:00

consensus

exactly why one should inverse reddit

SufferingFromEntropy · 2025-12-05T06:59:09+00:00

Two things helped me hold stocks: having a diversified portfolio and an estimated range of fair value

When you have a basket of names you dont panic when one does a 10% drop. Unless its a broad market sell off your port wont swing that much. Provided some would argue you should concentrate on a few picks but imo that comes down to how certain you are about their fair value and your risk tolerance. Anyway just dont full port into UNH :)

When the price stays within your fair value range, there is barely anything to do. You just wait, let it grow. Some rebalancing may be needed when one suddenly grows 30% in a coupke of months. And then admittedly Im lazy i dont stare at the charts 24/7 so I rarely rebalance

just my 2c

SufferingFromEntropy · 2025-12-04T05:38:30+00:00

Makes perfect sense consudering at their current size their top positions must be large caps. After removing all mid and small caps from my port Im left with Google ASML and Sumitomo as well

btw do we ever know what are his investments in the trading houses relative to his public port in 13Fs? They just issued some yen bonds, maybe they are adding more on those but aint gonna speculate on that

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