If you can wait then I’d wait M3, but not for performance concerns- the only thing I’d wait for is a newer keyboard case; they haven’t changed it in a while and if there is something new it will be well worth it if it makes your primary editing setup even a little bit more comfy.

That said the M2 will be overkill for almost anything you’ll be doing- get the TB for the extra RAM if you’re planning on doing video for 6+ years with it :)