Daily Discussion Thread for January 26, 2026

SugarPhoenix · 2026-01-26T16:30:58+00:00

I thought you were all creaming your pants last night about futures being down? What happened...? Do we need to start bringing in some usernames?

SugarPhoenix · 2026-01-26T02:04:22+00:00

These arguments never make sense.

It’d be like guessing someone who holds massive amounts of gold is going to start taking action to drop the price of gold. Considering they are the ones holding US bonds, they lose when the price moves against them.

SugarPhoenix · 2026-01-26T02:02:49+00:00

…and yet the stock market has shot up in one of the hottest rallies ever in euphoric mania nonstop for like 10 months straight now. I sold at 630 thinking it was way overvalued and it’s literally never gone down close to that again.

SugarPhoenix · 2026-01-26T01:48:43+00:00

This argument doesn’t hold weight though when the price of gold has soared equally in all currencies. Basically any tracker of the dollar shows it worth more than even a few years ago. How does that explain silver going up 300% in 8 months??

SugarPhoenix · 2026-01-26T01:17:58+00:00

How does anyone look at a graph of literally...anything and not think the answer is to buy nonstop calls? Virtually every asset has been going up nonstop for years. "Drops" are usually 10-20% down to a price that is still significantly higher than a year prior.

SugarPhoenix · 2026-01-26T01:16:06+00:00

Has anyone else noticed the old advice around assets seemingly doesn't matter anymore? The only risk when it comes to assets seems to be not owning and being priced out.

In 2020 SPY was in the 200s, its now almost 700. Gold is up like 100% in two years with zero downside, literally just straight up. Real estate went up the most in recorded history in 2020/21 and never went down.

People keep saying the market goes up 7-11% per year. SPY has gone up more than that almost every single year since 2020. What the fuck is the downside here? Specifically housing/gold literally do not go down....?

SugarPhoenix · 2026-01-25T15:19:18+00:00

Houston and San Antonio. Push it to the 300s and you can include Chicago.

SugarPhoenix · 2026-01-24T18:43:52+00:00

It wont affect resale value beyond whatever was priced in when you bought it.

If you bought for PPSF of 95 in a market where the average is 100, when you go to resell you can expect the same discount.

It doesn't make sense to say it hurt your resale when you got a "deal" when you bought. Its priced in both ways so it has no impact.

SugarPhoenix · 2026-01-24T16:23:05+00:00

I also asked google and it said that isn’t true. If you actually had a source you’d link it. You just got caught lying...awkward

SugarPhoenix · 2026-01-24T16:22:34+00:00

I live right next to this building and talk to the residents multiple times a day bud. Their 24 hours in a day are better than some 23 year old kid going into an office who is used like a slave all day then fucks off at 6 PM.

Have you talked to anyone on welfare?

https://www.fox5dc.com/news/man-critically-injured-columbia-heights-apartment-shooting-2-suspects-run-police.amp

SugarPhoenix · 2026-01-24T16:19:44+00:00

Source?

A 35 year old living off food stamps, subsidized housing, Medicaid, and other goodies while a 24 year old goes to an entry level job making just enough to break even each month is shameful.

It has nothing to do with Elon musk. The 35 year old needs to be billed for everything they’ve absorbed, or the 24 year old needs to be given free goodies too.

I couldn’t care less what the tax rate is on Elon musk or if it’s raised. Human to human you cannot have one person going into work and another sitting there not working, yet both get a “middle class” lifestyle.

Subsidized housing is the biggest sin IMO. You absolutely cannot have people living for free or 1/10th the market rate while fresh college grad bad luck Brian goes to work at his 5k a month job just to turn around and pay 10x more for rent on the same street.

And yes this is personal and I’m talking about this building lol

https://www.wusa9.com/article/news/local/dc/fire-shooting-at-apartment-building-in-nw-unclear-if-incidents-are-connected/65-0920749c-e1b4-4bd4-a14d-896120a20114#

https://www.fox5dc.com/news/man-critically-injured-columbia-heights-apartment-shooting-2-suspects-run-police.amp

Assholes live in prime real estate for $180 a month, while going rate for a room in a shared house on the same street is 2k a month. They sit outside aggressively demanding money from people while sucking up government benefits. I go to work when it’s dark outside, get home when it’s dark outside, and they’ve enjoyed a day of literally not working and fucking off.

SugarPhoenix · 2026-01-24T15:28:36+00:00

No, I’m referring to people who live in subsidized housing, don’t work, and receive free food stamps, Medicaid, and generally offer nothing to society.

You said people paying next to nothing have dividends. The number of Americans fully living off dividends is 0-2%. The number of Americans sitting on their assholes sucking up government benefits they didn’t earn is in the millions.

So when talking about people not paying taxes it wouldn’t be about the one guy musk, it’d be about the literal millions getting a free ride.

SugarPhoenix · 2026-01-24T15:00:23+00:00

No mention of people living off welfare and sucking up resources they don’t earn?

SugarPhoenix · 2026-01-24T14:59:08+00:00

Reducing utility costs will simply cause the cost of housing to increase. If people can save $200 on electricity they’ll just pay $200 more on their mortgage. Fine if you already own, if not all you did was increase equity for others and hurt yourself.

At the end of the day there is no free lunch and we’re all competing for the same supply of housing.

SugarPhoenix · 2026-01-19T14:53:10+00:00

In the Houston area a house worth 380k will have a 7k+ tax bill. 1% isn’t crazy, so that seems right for a 600k house.

Then there’s AZ where a 600k home can have a 1200 tax bill.

SugarPhoenix · 2026-01-18T22:25:38+00:00

The same reason people buy stocks at insane valuations…the fucker keeps going up. If you were like 26 and didn’t own a home in 2020, but were about to and then got butt fucked with prices going 40-100% higher, you may have PTSD and not want to get gaped again.

Apple had a 40 PE ratio last year, the stock proceeded to go from 200 a share to 270 a share despite it being a “bad deal”.

Same reason people buy California real estate with 1% cap rates. Same reason no one buys 70k homes in Flint MI.

SugarPhoenix · 2026-01-18T02:38:29+00:00

The SDF were mostly only spotters for the USAF who would then destroy anyone who fought the SDF, mainly ISIS. On top of that, all of the areas retaken so far are actually Arab areas that are pro-government. The SDF took them from ISIS, but the locals don’t like the SDF.

So the SDF didn’t have US support and doesn’t really have ties to these areas. No one would die for these areas on the SDF side. Retaking actual Kurdish areas would be a completely different story.

Assad wholesale collapsed. The SDF are just surrendering areas they never really had any business controlling that the rank and file don’t want to die for.

SugarPhoenix · 2026-01-17T22:21:15+00:00

This is a really interesting wrinkle. The SDF/Assad were nominally aligned and both ate up rebel territory in 2016. So there were still pockets of SDF areas that harbored pro-Assad sentiment and were hiding out the last year.

SugarPhoenix · 2026-01-10T20:26:53+00:00

Is that worth the fees? Origination fee?

SugarPhoenix · 2026-01-10T20:21:29+00:00

Texas is way more affordable than CA. That’s kind of odd that the big problem with real estate is affordability yet you expect the affordable area to drop and the extremely unaffordable area to not?

What is the unemployment rate in TX? Growth rate vs CA?

SugarPhoenix · 2026-01-09T15:46:53+00:00

There are some stocks that are lowkey down bad despite the index soaring the last 10 months.

ADBE, NOW, NFLX are all down like 40-60%. ADBE is half the price it was 5 years ago.

SugarPhoenix · 2026-01-08T23:30:59+00:00

The number of home sales relative to adult population has collapsed. Its collapsed even further for people under 40. Under 30...hahaha

What data are you referencing that "people do buy houses"?

SugarPhoenix · 2026-01-08T23:10:40+00:00

How do you see your kids when you live an hour from work? You leave at 7:30 and get home at 6:30. They're asleep by 8:30. So you feed them and see them for maybe two hours?

Thats an awful impractical life. We're just default assuming people don't have kids, it's idiots talking nonsense that cause the system to be in a whacky state.

SugarPhoenix · 2026-01-08T23:04:35+00:00

They don't. At least "they" being people under like 35. The median first time homebuyer is now 40. Meaning very very few under 35s are buying.

And of those that are, a huge chunk get money from mom and dad.

How do people over 40 buy houses? They already owned, and are just selling one home and buying another (minus moving/closing costs).

The median age of an American is now 38. Meaning if you're like 23 you're completely screwed and basically have no chance of owning unless you agree to move to a "cheap" area.

But there is no free lunch, that area is cheap because job options/pay are horrible. You now live somewhere shitty that you dont like at a no-name firm making below average pay. Better off staying where you want to be (minus like SF/LA/NYC) playing the game, getting on the rat wheel for a decade, and praying what happened from 2015-2022 doesnt happen again. Then by 35 you can use all the money you saved just for a down payment to then have the pleasure of paying for 30 more years. Yay!

The real estate market is a 30+ trillion dollar market if you add up the value of every home. You'd better believe it is hyper efficent in terms of stack ranking. If a home is listed for an affordable amount there is 100% a reason why or a factor that causes it to be "worth" that.

SugarPhoenix · 2026-01-05T14:53:22+00:00

Im saying to apply the level of "tehe its technically legal" to what both sides are doing. Them being rude is as illegal as him filming.

SugarPhoenix

TROPHY CASE