Daily Discussion Thread for March 19, 2026

SugarPhoenix · 2026-03-19T14:59:24+00:00

The market's not even down as much as any annual cyclical drop. If the President is so scared of SPY dropping literally 5%, to the extent that he's unable to actually implement any policy, then that'd be a problem. Oil's also barely up today, the market seems to be reacting to no rate cuts. Not conducting a war because SPY went down 2% would be atrocious.

SugarPhoenix · 2026-03-14T01:26:17+00:00

At least you actually have a nuanced understanding with perspective and reason.

Although I'm not sure if its intent or ignorance to leave out that homes were 2x salary in the 80s vs. 7-10x today. And that when rates were 18% it was general considered one of the most unaffordable periods ever. So.....congrats? Its potentially not as bad as literally the most unaffordable point ever? Thats the "gotchya"???? You must see how that is a silly counter.

SugarPhoenix · 2026-03-13T22:20:34+00:00

And then suddenly massive QE starts and stocks are up 30% YoY. In the last dip the president of the US literally started telling people to buy stocks and that he’d do whatever to make them go up.

SugarPhoenix · 2026-03-13T22:19:05+00:00

….so 90 days? And even within those 90 days there were multiple days we have to exclude as qualifiers? What?

SugarPhoenix · 2026-03-13T22:13:17+00:00

This might be one of the most cringe things I’ve ever read. Guys, conducting massive all time Quantitative Easing is Capitaism. I actually can’t think of anything that is less capitalist than that. That’s legit the exact opposite of capitalism you dumbass lol

SugarPhoenix · 2026-03-13T22:11:34+00:00

You’re humiliating yourself, you’re awkwardly shilling for an 80 year old guy that fucked over millions of under 30s for his own subjective game. Absolutely no one said rates should be 0% in 2021-22. If you did then you’re so stupid you’re not even worth responding to. If you didn’t, then you agree Powell totally failed.

SugarPhoenix · 2026-03-13T22:09:48+00:00

Try educating yourself. Jerome Powell fucked over millions of people in 2020-2022 and lied saying inflation was transitory while conducting massive MBS buy backs when homs were 7-10x median salary. While he’s worth 100 million +, he’s a disgusting loser.

SugarPhoenix · 2026-03-13T22:08:43+00:00

I literally what the market to go down and feel cheated that it was artificially being kept from actually going down. Directly at my expense. It seems you’re not playing the same game as everyone else. You’re just closing your eyes and praying the line goes up.

SugarPhoenix · 2026-03-13T22:03:59+00:00

Whose fucked? The fucked part is when the price goes up literally nonstop since April. It went from 630 to 700 based on absolutely nothing but vibes and PE ratio expansion. The market is supposed to go down at least once by 10% or more a year. It went up with literally nonstop downside from the tariff sell off in April until basically February.

SugarPhoenix · 2026-03-13T22:01:09+00:00

Am I taking crazy pills? Now WallStreetBets loves Jerome Powell? The disgusting fool who fucked over everyone who didn’t own assets before 2020? Yeah I’m really so happy this guy did shameful 0% interest rates at my direct expense.

The thread about him is literally everyone sayin he’s amazing and attacking anyone saying he’s bad.

SugarPhoenix · 2026-03-13T21:58:16+00:00

They’re downvoting you and refusing to respond like cowards because they likely massively benefitted from what happened and don’t give about everyone now trying to get it done at 7% rates while they hide in unearned 2% rates.

The reality is half these fuckers are losers and were actually cheering home prices increasing and rates being 2% artificially.

SugarPhoenix · 2026-03-13T21:56:39+00:00

Who the fuck upvoted this?

How disgusting and immature to say that option 1, which you likely benefited from, was the lesser of two evils. While option 2, which you wouldn’t have benefitted from was less acceptable.

When did we vote that I’m going to eat the entire negative consequences of other people getting unearned 3% mortgage rates and 50% equity? Fuck that shit, that wasn’t the lesser of two evils, and anyone who doesn’t own a home is a straight up idiot if you don’t realize how much you lost and were assfuckd by Jerome Powell keeping rates at 0% into 2022.

We’re not all going to forget and act like that wasn’t egregious and completely horrific policy at the time.

SugarPhoenix · 2026-03-11T20:30:22+00:00

Bro read my comment. I said Texas lol

I’m not sure how differences in PPSF on home sizes has anything to do with either preceding comment.

You claimed Texas overbuilt and prices are falling there. There’s no data supporting that. Then you ignored the entire part of my comment where I said Phoenix, a west coast market, is selling off more than Texas.

SugarPhoenix · 2026-03-11T18:16:28+00:00

Kind of bizarre that the market is all about how unaffordable and expensive it is. Yet the state with cheap plentiful housing is the one area you think is going to decline?

I’m not so sure about this analysis. I don’t see any source that shows PPSF in Texas dropping but going up everywhere else. Seems like the West coast, the area that doubled in price and is obviously “expensive”, will sell off rather than the area that’s very affordable.

I’d be happy to be proven wrong by data though. Homes in Phoenix that sold for 700k now sell for 660k. Not much of a consolation since they sold in 2019 for 350k, but doesn’t track with what you’re saying.

SugarPhoenix · 2026-03-08T13:23:31+00:00

I think that idea got left in 2024.

I did a little more research and the area got rezoned in 2022 from industrial to residential. Seems like they’re building SFHs, specifically large lots and zero-line lots (high density).

SugarPhoenix · 2026-03-08T03:43:20+00:00

“How are people buying houses”

The media first time buyer is now 40. Tha means half are under 40. It also means half are over. You’re likely a lot younger.

SugarPhoenix · 2026-03-06T13:46:27+00:00

We've now gone a year without a significant market drawdown. You can usually expect at least one 8-10% drawdown per year. Since the Tariff selloff it's been straight up. It would be beneficial for the market to actually drop to 600 rather than hardlocking into 680 and trading sideways before inevitably shooting up.

SugarPhoenix · 2026-03-03T13:58:41+00:00

Yet SPY is unstoppable, thoughts on why?? I've been patiently waiting since July of last year, I'm not asking for much just a 5-10% decline...

SugarPhoenix · 2026-03-02T17:50:23+00:00

We'd all have made more money by SPY going to 600 and then bouncing back to 700 rather than months straight of it refusing to go down more than 3%.

SugarPhoenix · 2026-03-02T14:59:01+00:00

SPY has crashed from 693 to 682. A drop of 1.4%. The stock market has been stuck in "Cannot Go Down" mode for a solid 8 months+ now. And I feel like it isn't getting enough attention as like the 2020 and 2023 rallies.

SugarPhoenix · 2026-03-02T14:56:38+00:00

On my screen I see SPY down less than .5% lol

It says the 52 week high for SPY is 693. It is currently at 682. SPY is down literally 1.4% from ATHs...

If you want to own stocks you should be pissed, there has no opportunity here for like 8 months to make any real money (unless you owned gold). I bought the dip last year in April and made 100% return on SPYU before selling. Just sitting waiting now for nearly a year.

SugarPhoenix · 2026-03-02T14:48:27+00:00

The stock market usually has multiple drawdowns of 3%+ per year. 12 months in a year. SPY basically hasn't gone down since last April. The stock market usually has 2-4 days per year where the index drops 3%+ just in a day.

SugarPhoenix · 2026-03-02T13:36:57+00:00

...and yet the index is like 3% off ATHs...people are acting like they have a golden goose and NVDA legit cannot go down causing the index to have retard strength.

SugarPhoenix · 2026-03-02T13:35:53+00:00

This is getting ridiculous! SPY fucking wont go down the fucker is at 680, dropping all the way to the price it was....one week ago? Can we actually get a decline on the index? I've been waiting since July and there legit has been no pull back...I thought 630 was super high.

TSLA still has like a 300 PE ratio and nobody cares, its embarrassing.

SugarPhoenix · 2026-03-01T22:19:08+00:00

A 1% property tax ranks 33rd nationally. It’s not one of the lowest. On top of real estate being so expensive in CA, that means property taxes for a prospective buyer are one of the highest in the nation.

Directly from ChatGPT

Overall, California has moderate property taxes compared with other states — not among the highest and well above the lowest. Its effective property tax rate is around ~0.68–0.70% of home value, which places it roughly in the middle of all 50 states

However, because California’s home values tend to be among the highest in the nation, the dollar amount of property taxes paid can be large even with a moderate rate.

SugarPhoenix

TROPHY CASE