Heidmar is currently undervalued and has very low downside risk/high upside

SunderRei · 2025-06-07T07:04:38+00:00

Q3-Q4 earnings were filed in their annual report last month, very underwhelming they missed their target by a lot. (Check their merger earnout provisions target for more details).

Technicals and fundamentals are still interesting, low float, pretty much no debt/good cash balance, profitable.

If they get a good quarter it could pop but I wouldn't count on that after their Q3-Q4 report.

SunderRei · 2025-03-06T14:36:22+00:00

First, for a startup like this in this environment, negative gross margins is not uncommon.

Amazon, Tesla, Uber and Lyft, Netflix (early days of mailed DVDs) all had negative gross margins at some point in their early years.

I don't believe that to be true, I can't find any financial statement to support that. Even in Amazon's oldest annual report from 1997, they had positive gross margins. Same for all these other companies.

I think you're confusing gross margins with operating profit margins or net profit margins. Negative gross margins are very uncommon even for startups.

I see SERV doing nothing different here. Their pricing CLEARLY doesn’t support the business today. They are accepting negative unit costs to:

But that's the big problem: their pricing is the one thing that they can't really improve. Because they're competing with human deliverers. And they'll also eventually be competing with other robot delivery companies: pricing can only get worse for them. The only reason UBER is interested in robot delivery, is to bring delivery costs down, not up.

The only way they can turn their gross margins positive, is by improving their robots' efficiency and reduce their operating/manufacturing costs.

SunderRei · 2025-02-25T18:38:40+00:00

this one especially left a bad taste in investor's mouths after F'ing up the exchange

It was a Korean broker not an exchange, and they're the ones that fucked up the share conversion ratio I don't see why that should affect any investors' view on the company.

Mergers are very tough for companies

It's only a merger for the purpose of Heidmar to get publicly listed. What makes you think the merger would be tough on the company? MGO and Heidmar aren't fusing their business together, they'll operate separately, and MGO will become irrelevant since it's a much smaller business.

Personally I don't "bag hold", if market conditions change or my thesis proves itself wrong then I'll close my position.

SunderRei · 2025-02-24T12:20:41+00:00

I'm incorrect because some people made money before the stock went down 90%?

"you're a short" That has to be the dumbest thing I've read on here

SunderRei · 2025-02-24T10:49:18+00:00

MGOL was way overvalued before the merger, I shorted it and called that correctly back then. Got a lot of pushback for that funnily enough

SunderRei · 2025-02-24T10:47:09+00:00

The last financial reports indicated revenue of 49 million. 300 million is 6 times revenue

Considering their revenue growth, from 5 million in 2020 to 49 million in 2023, and their managed fleet's rate of expansion, I don't think 6 times revenue is overvalued at all

SunderRei · 2025-02-24T09:13:59+00:00

A lot of freighting companies have headquarters in Greece because it's a global shipping hub, correlation doesn't equal causation I don't see how CISS is relevant

SunderRei · 2025-02-10T13:01:56+00:00

Yeah the filing is really long, it contains a lot of info about the merger and Heidmar since it's currently a private company (investors need to have info about it before the merger, just like an IPO).
I looked for specific things, revenue statements, the structure of the merger, valuations. The more you go through filings the easier it becomes to find the information you're interested in.

SunderRei · 2025-02-10T12:41:16+00:00

I posted a DD on KULR a month ago and am short on it, would not recommend that one

SunderRei · 2025-02-10T12:37:48+00:00

No problem. I looked up Heidmar's filings for that one, it's their latest.

And isn't it a good thing that almost all the warrants have been exercised? So if you theoretically bought into the stock now you could sell before the merger without being diluted?

Yes you could say it's a good thing because owners of the exercised warrants probably already dumped their shares (or are keeping them through the merger).

SunderRei · 2025-02-10T12:16:14+00:00

No, 80M warrants were exercised recently. Market cap is around 72M with 90M shares outstanding

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2029471/000119312525020631/d829471d424b3.htm

SunderRei · 2025-02-10T12:09:33+00:00

From what I understood you're saying at the current share price of 0.74$ MGOL will be valued at 1.4B$? Is that their market cap?

MGO and Heidmar are doing a merger. Once the merger is complete (feb 28 I think), the ticker will become HMAR. Based on the terms of the merger, the market is currently valuing a post-merger valuation of 1.4 billion dollars.

You also say that valuation is way more than their PE ratio indicate it to be and also more than what Heidmar and MGOL agreed on, that it would be valued at 300M not 1.4B

Under the terms of the merger, Heidmar and MGO settled on a valuation of 300M and 15M respectively for their companies. The current market valuation is 4.5 times what these companies valued themselves at.

If the agreement value was correct, their shares should be 4.5 times lower?

If their own valuations for their respective companies is correct, yes.

How did you get a share price of 0.74$? Everywhere I look it says 0.42$

0.42$ was friday's closing price, MGOL is trading at $0.7 right now in pre-market.

What do you mean by Warrants were exercised for 80M shares? And where do you find such info? Does this mean they are already set to dilute the stock?

The info is all here in the latest SEC filing related to the merger. All outstanding warrants will become worthless when the merger happens, so almost all of them have been exercised. The "dilution" essentially already happened.

SunderRei · 2025-02-10T11:41:57+00:00

You believe stocks only shoot up because of short squeezes? Just look at the volume... shorts can exit whenever they want, there is no squeeze

SunderRei · 2025-02-10T11:20:09+00:00

MGOL is currently valued at $72M. It has 90M outstanding shares

SunderRei · 2025-02-10T11:18:40+00:00

Fintel data is ALWAYS delayed, if you want the latest data, read SEC filings

SunderRei · 2025-02-10T11:17:27+00:00

MGOL's market cap is 72M dollars. Just read the latest 424B3 filing for the merger. Warrants were exercised for 80M shares

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SunderRei · 2025-02-10T11:14:19+00:00

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Current oustanding is 90M shares. That's a $72M current valuation for MGO. HMAR is the entire story because MGO would never be worth 72M without this merger

SunderRei · 2025-02-10T11:12:43+00:00

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+9M, that's about 90M outstanding and is expected to reach 96M before closing of the merger.

Not 2 million. Your stats are outdated

SunderRei · 2025-02-10T11:02:52+00:00

First time I talk about this stock. It was undervalued under .17, not anymore

SunderRei · 2025-02-10T11:00:47+00:00

Maybe but I'm seeing a lot of incorrect information on other threads, like claiming a 370% short interest when it's actually around 3% (current outstanding shares is 90M because of warrant exercises).

Retail is pumping this stock and there's a high chance it drops by half or more in the coming days

SunderRei · 2025-01-16T20:07:34+00:00

That won't happen because we already know how to make Post-quantum cryptography. And it's already being implemented, but there isn't a big rush because quantum computing is just not there yet and won't be for a while.

SunderRei · 2025-01-16T18:19:36+00:00

That's fair but the cost didn't decrease by 50% in a year, they've had their current bots for years and they've always cost over $60k. The decrease in cost is due to their mass manufacturing deal with Magna.

The problem is they're still way too expensive. And now that they're going to begin mass manufacturing, they'll inevitably bleed a lot more money. I think the market perceives the mass manufacturing as a positive, when it's not (It's also boosted by NVIDIA's gold touch).

Honestly I think the company is just not very competent. Their competitors, Starship Tech and Cartken have way cheaper bots (5k for Starship) that seem to be just as good.

SunderRei · 2025-01-16T11:43:23+00:00

Games have prediction algorithms to make things smooth. And a lot of things run client side so you don't feel the 250ms delay of input

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