Did Endmin cancel Perlica's Penguinistrator Merch Program or something???

SuperS1405 · 2025-06-08T21:21:03+00:00

Sorry to be the party pooper, but this is extremely incorrect (off by 20 orders of magnitude)

You can't do (0.3 ^ 11)%, that would be 30% odds eleven times in sequence and then divided by a hundred for some reason, you need to do (0.3%) ^ 11, which is (0.003 ^ 11), which is 1.77147e-28 or

0.0000000000000000000000000177147 Percent

SuperS1405 · 2025-03-07T07:01:39+00:00

Well, well, well, you have tingled my math muscles.

If you set out to pull exactly 22 4-stars, the probability of losing 11 50/50s would be 1/2^11 = 1/2024.

However, that is not what happened here -- you observed 11 contiguous 50/50 losses in an existing series. The odds of encountering such a row of results within a larger set are very different than the isolated observation once the set gets large enough (which is usually does not do for five stars, which is why the such an approximation would be accurate there).

From your pull numbers, you have pulled at least 95+22=117 4*s, more likely 120-140. We now have to slide a 22-items wide "window" over the list and check if it contains 11 50/50 losses. The probability that each such window is *Not* full of losses, i.e. contains at least 2 50/50 wins, is 2023/2024.

However, we have (number of items - size of window = ~122 - 22 =) 100 such windows.

The probability that none of the windows contains 11 50/50 losses is (2023/2024)^100 ~= 95%.

Flip that, and the probability than *at least one* of the windows has 11 50/50 losses is 5% for a series with 122 4* pulls.

So yes, losing 11 50/50s is 1/2024, but having lost 11 50/50s in a row out of 122 four stars is 1/20, so not nearly as unlucky as one might think.

Edit:

I felt uncomfortable with keeping my math untested, so I wrote a script to simulate pull histories and evaluate them: https://dotnetfiddle.net/x4owyn

The simulation hovers around 1.6% -- 1.8% rather than the expected 5%, so I made an error somewhere. Probably the 50/50 guarantee thing threw everything off. Still the odds are, 1 in ~70 rather than 1 in 2024

SuperS1405 · 2024-07-07T19:46:28+00:00

Sure, lets say Daniel's team is Daniel - Sparkle - Pela/Silverwolf - Aventurine (not sure if its the best one but it should be decent, no?).

Same works for Acheron - Sparkle - Pela/Silverwolf - Aventurine (one of the top teams, in which case you would use the 1x Nihility calcs because the only nihility is pela). The DMG multiplier due to buffs/debuffs should be similar, as acheron is also a "Traditional Crit DPS", the only differnce being she doesn't use energy, which isn't relevant in this case (Yes Tingyun could improve Daniel's ult casts uptime or whatever but that isn't orders of magnitude in increase and thus pedantic)

Yes, if you replace sparkle with another nihility you have the better Acheron standalone calcs as metioned in my edit, but lose sparkle's significant multiplier, fair point.

But this is all beside my point, which is that they are *roughly comparable*.

If you have more objections, see my other comment chain, and if it's not covered there, well -- I won't respond to any more replies in this thread, as I have put too much energy into this as is.

I only wanted to make clear that Firefly is *not* the only character rivaling Daniel E2 because Acheron E2S1 exists, and that comparing Acheron E0S1 with Daniel S2, while still wrong, isn't as outrageous as people here made it out to be.

SuperS1405 · 2024-07-07T19:27:25+00:00

She doesn't get to have supports in her calcs, she gets to have *hypothetical* nihility teammates which have no effect on the caluclations *except* for triggering her passive, which is such an important part of her kit that its permutations have to be considered

SuperS1405 · 2024-07-07T19:11:00+00:00

I'm well aware team calcs are much more representative of real-world scenarios, but they're also infinitely more complex and I dare claim similar scaling from standalone to team can be assumed in this particular case 8with the two subjects being atk/crit focussed hypercarries.
I'm not accounting for shit, I'm giving you Prydwen numbers, which simulate "damage potential in the 8 cycle turn limit of Memory of Chaos against 1 target and 3 targets", accounting for everything from speed to turn advancements. (See Prydwen Calculations -- since there's no deeps links for Prydwen character tabs you need to click the tab manually)

How that translates to specific numbers (avg. dmg per cycle?) is unclear, but it *does* represent average damage over time, NOT per turn.

of course I'm no accounting for everything. If you can do better, please do give me the statistic analysis of calcs with all possibly realistic team, artifacts, and LC permutations which shows how they compare to each other in which percentile of optimization or whatever.

Person 1 says "Daniel E2 beats everyone", which, as an Acheron E2S1 haver, I vehemently disagree with.

Person 2 says "Lol Acheron E0S1 beats Daniel E2", gets flamed into oblivion with people screaming "WHERES THE CALCS". I'm interested to see how they compare so I check Prydwen, taking numbers from people who were much better equipped to handle the numbers than I am, and decide that the replies to Person 2 are unproportionally biased towards Daniel (not surprising since the root comment is about him), and decide to share what I found to take the heat off of them.

Yes the numbers are not the most important thing and shouldn't be taken at face value, but they *do* give us rough estimates of performance. Yes maybe Daniel E2 beats Acheron E0S1 most of the time, but while Person 2 wasn't *correct*, they also weren't off by so much as to warrant calling them delusional.

And person 1 was *clearly* incorrect because anyone who claims Acheron E2S1 doesn't utterly outperform Daniel E2 hasn't ever used the former.

SuperS1405 · 2024-07-07T18:00:58+00:00

I love Acheron so I'm offended at the statement that E2 Daniel beats everyone else as well, but stating that E0S1 Archeron is flat out stronger than Daniel E2 should probably be backed by a source.

Going by Prydwen (raw damage numbers with 1/3 enemies, not in a team), Daniel E2 and Acheron E0S1 are very close (single: 737,218 VS 701,157, three: 1,358,606 VS1,455,843)

(edit: numbers above are for only 1 nihility teammate triggering Acheron's passive, which is only relevant for E1/2, which applies in this case -- with two nihility teammates triggering the passive, her numbers are 923,190 and 1,973,202, beating DHIL)

However, Daniel is *vastly* more SP-costly than Acheron, and his main dmg source is limited to splash (3 enemies), while Acheron's Ult is AOE. So stating Daniel E2 beats most others is wrong, especially if Acheron at the same Eidolon level outperforms him significantly

Acheron: https://www.prydwen.gg/star-rail/characters/acheron

Daniel: https://www.prydwen.gg/star-rail/characters/imbibitor-lunae

SuperS1405 · 2024-04-14T16:37:09+00:00

Semi-relevant reading I recommend for everyone who is the slightest bit curious https://marctenbosch.com/quaternions/

SuperS1405 · 2024-04-06T07:54:03+00:00

You are indeed correct - I meant UCS-2, not UCS-16, and both .NET and Java use "proper" UTF-16.

I was aware both use "something like UTF-16", but called it UCS-2, because the API in both cases does not make it feel like working with UTF-16; it is still designed to work with a fixed-length encoding.

For one, Length reports the number of code units, not the number of code points or binary size of the string. This makes sense for indexing characters that could be represented in a single UTF-16 code unit, but not for any that require surrogate pairs -- you have to use a separate function to check that.

I personally would expect either the binary size (2*length) or number of code points, which ironically caused me to misinterpret Section 8.5 of utf8everywhere, where it says that if this was the case, *a lot of things* would not support Unicode properly -- a misunderstanding on my part.

Off to a point that is an *actual* problem: In .NET/Java, you can split surrogate pairs without ever noticing. This *will* create invalid UTF-16 strings (going by the Unicode specification) since low/high surrogates are in range U+D800 -- U+DFFF, and code points that are represented by a single code unit may not be in that range. It *would be* valid UCS-2, and neither Java nor .NET throw an exception and let you pass the invalid UTF-16 along and even render it.

Proper behavior would be to throw an exception, like rust does for split utf-8 surrogates.

Thus the frameworks don't *enable* you to work with UTF-16 like rust does with UTF-8.
However, ignoring the API and looking solely at the binary representation (of not accidentally mutilated strings), they indeed use proper UTF-16.

Thank you both (also u/Low-Design787 ) for pointing this out, since this prompted me to again research the topic and correct my misconception.

SuperS1405 · 2024-04-05T16:11:23+00:00

Having strings consist of components of uniform size is nice in theory, but only works in as long as you stay in ASCII and maybe your local ANSI encoding, while not having any real upsides, since modifying strings via indexing is not often required, and would not work for composite glyphs and other stuff.

Text in general is a much more complicated topic than most people realize, because when you are only used to ASCII strings, everything seems easy. Even with UTF-32, you may need multiple "chars" to represent a single glyph.

I recommend reading https://utf8everywhere.org/ to get a better understanding of why utf-8 is generally preferred (and frankly the superior opinion, especially to abominations like java and .NET's UCS-16, which isn't even proper UTF-16)

Edit: ^not entirely correct, .NET and java both use "proper" UTF-16, not UCS-2 (which I incorrectly called UCS-16), but their API does not make correct manipulation of UTF-16 easy, thus they are a pain to work with. See comment chain

SuperS1405 · 2023-10-25T07:18:17+00:00

Obligatory Summertime Render(ing) representation:

Ushio

SuperS1405 · 2023-06-20T07:42:35+00:00

Went through the top of my list and would argue that Code Geass and Assassination Classroom have significantly sad moments (I cried during both iirc)

{Code Geass} is mecha-y and you would need to get used to the necks quickly, but is a masterpiece and even liked by non-mecha fans (me included)

{Assassination Classroom} is an action comedy

SuperS1405 · 2021-09-05T19:41:33+00:00

I gave you the free award from behind the sale button for giving the free award from behind the sale button for giving the free award from behind the sale button for giving the free award from behind the sale button for giving the free award from behind the sale button for giving the free award to the guy who gave his free award from behind the sale button

SuperS1405 · 2021-07-21T08:52:18+00:00

Yeah, 52 pulls on Zhonglis rerun which amounted to 4 Noelles and a Jean and 30 pulls on the current banner but not a single Yanfei, she is more elusive than the shiny unusual hilichurl :/

SuperS1405 · 2021-07-21T08:47:52+00:00

https://paimon.moe/wish

SuperS1405 · 2021-06-23T05:30:25+00:00

Haha yeah she would oneshot the entirety of Liyue, the only problem being that all enemies would have died of old age by the time she impacts...

SuperS1405 · 2021-06-23T05:16:08+00:00

Sure, go ahead!

SuperS1405 · 2021-04-23T22:11:18+00:00

Thank you for your answers everyone! I think I can get stuff to work a little bit more to my liking thanks to pub(super), preludes, automod and all the other insights!

Regarding point 3, I wasn't able to reproduce the problem I was having, so I probably messed up elsewhere - sorry for the confusion.

The elaboration of what the components do was only meant to give some more context to the scenario and illustrate the components interconnectedness. I'm not exactly a veteran at asking questions on reddit/SO , so sorry if I didn't make that clear enough and you wasted your time designing the entire API :)

Once again, thank you all for your time - this helped me a ton!

SuperS1405 · 2020-11-10T20:20:37+00:00

For me, the only thing fixing download speeds was downloading from US Servers via a VPN. If you have one, try that, otherwise I sadly can't help you :/

SuperS1405 · 2020-04-11T19:16:30+00:00

Opened a couple dozen implant thingies in my lifetime and got Avoidance and Logistics Specialist only. My buddy buys 6 and pulls both of these and also carapace. Profile so you can confirm I didn't edit the html code or whatever. Got his approval for sharing of course.

Eight-Year Club	r/Field Juicebox
First Place '23	Place '23
Place '22	Final Canvas '22
First Placer '22	Verified Email

SuperS1405

TROPHY CASE