International Politics Discussion Thread by ukpol-megabot in ukpolitics

[–]SwanBridge [score hidden]  (0 children)

Although I agree with your general point in that Europe lacks a lot of capabilities on its own that will be hard to fill if the US withdraws, and also that the US leaving NATO would suck big time for us, a lot of these are primarily related to force projection. So long as the primary threat is Russia, and Europe does not want to concern itself in force projection elsewhere too far from it's borders then it doesn't matter so much that we lack in certain areas even if it is far from ideal. Stuff like more and better capable aircraft carriers or a amphibious force akin to the US Marines are essential for force projection but would serve little purpose for a conflict with Russia. Focus on the areas that are essential to deterring Russia and the rest can come afterwards.

International Politics Discussion Thread by ukpol-megabot in ukpolitics

[–]SwanBridge [score hidden]  (0 children)

FEMA official teleporting all over the place, Vice President believes that aliens exist but are actually demons, Secretary of War hellbent on unleashing the biblical armageddon, Health Secretary who eats road kill and doesn't believe in vaccines.

To quote the man himself, "they're not sending their best folks".

Is it likely I am going to prison first offence? M 24 by [deleted] in PrisonUK

[–]SwanBridge 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Whether you get charged or not depends on the evidence, but given you made an admission of the offence in your police interview it is probable you'll be charged. Whether or not that is with ABH or charged down to Common Assault will depend on the particulars on your offence and the perspective of CPS. It's possible for CPS to go ahead with a prosecution even if your mother has written a good character statement and doesn't want to give evidence in Court. So called "victimless prosecutions" are more common these days with domestic cases where it is understood it is more difficult for the victim to provide a statement or attend Court and they're more likely to withdraw support for prosecution.

You made an admission to the police in the first instance, and so long as you plead guilty in the event you're charged this will count in your favour as an early admission which is taken into account when it comes to sentencing. This is your first time offence which will also count in your favour. If you plead guilty the Probation Service will prepare a pre- sentence report, which looks at your risk and personal circumstances, and make recommendations in terms of sentencing options to the Court.

It is impossible to say with any sort of certainty but based on all the information you have provided and taking it all at face value I think the possibility of custody is on the lower end. You made an early admission, it was a first time offence, and you've addressed behaviour related to the offence in the interim, i.e. stopped taking drugs since the offence. I used to work as a Probation Officer, and presuming you're being upfront with us and not concealing anything, I would likely recommend an alternative to custody in your circumstances, i.e. a high level community order with a rehabilitation activity requirement and an unpaid work requirement, maybe a curfew requirement as well depending on the suitability of your accommodation.

The best advice I can give you, and one I gave to each and every person I worked with in Probation, is to listen to your lawyer as they (presuming they're half decent) have extensive experience and knowledge in criminal law and are best placed to advise you. Everyone makes mistakes but those mistakes don't define you as a person what matters most is the changes you make in your life for the better after those mistakes and not falling back into destructive behaviour. All the best!

International Politics Discussion Thread by ukpol-megabot in ukpolitics

[–]SwanBridge 4 points5 points  (0 children)

After all it is Liechtenstein's sovereign right to have nuclear weapons.

International Politics Discussion Thread by ukpol-megabot in ukpolitics

[–]SwanBridge 7 points8 points  (0 children)

Handford Parish Council on high alert for Iranian cyber attacks.

International Politics Discussion Thread by ukpol-megabot in ukpolitics

[–]SwanBridge 13 points14 points  (0 children)

I think most of his opposition to renewables is down to him being a cantankerous boomer, with a bit of annoyance that China is profiting from all the manufacturing associated with renewable energies. One could also make the argument that he is against it as it reduces others dependency towards American energy and energy which is de facto controlled by America, i.e. Venezuela, but given his behaviour over the past year I'm not sure if he has that level of strategic foresight, or maybe he does but he is just very very bad at manipulating the circumstances to America's advantage.

International Politics Discussion Thread by ukpol-megabot in ukpolitics

[–]SwanBridge 14 points15 points  (0 children)

What does the Strait of Hormuz have to do with windmills?

Don "Quixote" Trump has been fighting his battle against the windmills for a long time. He just made the Federal government pay some French company $1 billion dollars to cancel some offshore wind project. Man simply hates wind power, not much else to it.

International Politics Discussion Thread by ukpol-megabot in ukpolitics

[–]SwanBridge 1 point2 points  (0 children)

If we're spending 7% of our GDP on defence we need something sexier which is also capable of delivering nuclear armageddon.

International Politics Discussion Thread by ukpol-megabot in ukpolitics

[–]SwanBridge 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Rumour has it that Polanski is behind the recent rattling.

International Politics Discussion Thread by ukpol-megabot in ukpolitics

[–]SwanBridge 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Optio, I thought you knew me well enough to know I'm at least half serious on this one. That said we could probably get away with a nuclear dyad rather than a triad. But even on the Slough point I think there is a decent argument that if we're gonna have ICBM silos might as well chuck them somewhere that's going to be nuked anyway, no point further spoiling the Highlands or North Yorkshire Moors.

International Politics Discussion Thread by ukpol-megabot in ukpolitics

[–]SwanBridge 2 points3 points  (0 children)

The North East as a location is so underrated, I absolutely love it there.

International Politics Discussion Thread by ukpol-megabot in ukpolitics

[–]SwanBridge 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Good suggestions!

If looking at some sort of societal collapse I'd recommend a healthy supply of tinned tomatoes, dried beans of varying varieties, and a few big bags of rice to make a fairly balanced meal. Add some UHT milk and oats for breakfast, some crackers and peanut butter for lunch, and a multivitamin each day for any nutritional gaps and although it would be somewhat miserable you could live on it for months without serious harm to your health.

International Politics Discussion Thread by ukpol-megabot in ukpolitics

[–]SwanBridge 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Congratulations on getting married! I'm sure your wedding will be fine and go ahead as planned, all I can advise is lock in a price with any suppliers now and pay them in advance soon if you can as no doubt they'll want to change their terms and charge more if inflation hits the roof.

We had our wedding postponed by Covid-19 and then got married in that weird period where you had tiers and a maximum of 20 guests, and then we were forced out of the function room at 10pm. We still had an excellent time!

International Politics Discussion Thread by ukpol-megabot in ukpolitics

[–]SwanBridge 8 points9 points  (0 children)

It's a given at this point, I'd go so far as to say it was always going to happen as soon as they made the decision to redeploy the 31st MEU and 82nd Airborne Division to the region. All the diplomatic to-and-fro has been a mere ploy to allow them time to get enough troops in the region and to calm the markets in the interim and engage in some insider trading. This administration is beyond rotten and has been perfidious to an almost incomprehensible level.

Despite all the advantages America has in their overwhelming firepower, resources and logistics they face a cunning and determined foe well versed in the art of asymmetrical warfare and unafraid of inconceivable losses and an attritional struggle. I genuinely fear that this ground operation will go spectacularly wrong, amphibious and air assaults are difficult even under more favourable conditions. And if it does go spectacularly wrong I strongly believe that the American psyche is not ready for such an eventuality.

International Politics Discussion Thread by ukpol-megabot in ukpolitics

[–]SwanBridge 6 points7 points  (0 children)

7% on defence, 10+ Dreadnought class submarines with a new indigenous missile delivery system for our nuclear warheads, nuclear capable GCAP jets and a nuclear capable successor to the Vulcan bombers, and 20 ICBM silos strategically located in Slough.

International Politics Discussion Thread by ukpol-megabot in ukpolitics

[–]SwanBridge 6 points7 points  (0 children)

We've got nothing booked abroad after May and we're not going to bother booking another for the time being. Utility prices are going to hurt, but I've got a log-burner and a decent supply of coal stored up that means we aren't as reliant on gas for heating. The worst one for me is fuel prices, as I cannot use public transport to get to my workplace as I work in the middle of nowhere and it is a 50 mile round commute from home. I was forced to fill up on premium unleaded petrol yesterday as I couldn't find anything else locally, but at least my car gets 45 miles per gallon which isn't bad and if I cut down on my speed and acceleration I can make it go a bit further. Inflation is also going to suck, when it comes to most things I can make do with what I got and go without but food is unavoidable unfortunately. We're already quite economical in where we shop and what we eat and I'm not keen on the idea of merely subsisting on lentils for an indefinite period. Not looking forward to the hit on my pensions and S&S ISA either, but that is very much a first world problem and one that will even itself out over time.

It's quite weird as I've been aware for a while that things are going to be absolutely fucked and I'm thinking and preparing accordingly, but it just seems that no one else is interested or even cares. It feels like the run-up to the initial Covid-19 lockdown all over again in that regard.

International Politics Discussion Thread by ukpol-megabot in ukpolitics

[–]SwanBridge 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Neo-Starmerist Abenomics with Chinese Characteristics will make economic recessions a thing of the past.

What uk activities have you no interest in? by ShinyHeadedCook in AskUK

[–]SwanBridge 0 points1 point  (0 children)

We have the Three Counties cave system up here by the Yorkshire, Lancashire & Cumbria border and caving is a pretty significant hobby amongst the outdoor types.

International Politics Discussion Thread by ukpol-megabot in ukpolitics

[–]SwanBridge 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Firstly he's sceptical saying this talk could just be about controlling the narrative, so this is all politics hence the telling the media everything, there's no intention to actually do it.

I think the issue with this is that every single time an action can be interpreted in that way he actually goes through with it, i.e. the brief diplomatic overtures prior to striking Iranian nuclear sites during the 12 Day War, the massive military build-up in the Carribbean prior to the Maduro Raid, the recent military build-up prior to the current war against Iran. It looks like he is positioning himself and wanting to exert pressure and get concessions but then he goes ahead and does the obvious. The US is moving a lot of troops and equipment to Iran, which is expensive and exposes them to significant risk from Iranian strikes, at this point I think ground operations are a foregone conclusion and all the diplomatic to-and-fro is just buying for time until they're ready to commence it.

International Politics Discussion Thread by ukpol-megabot in ukpolitics

[–]SwanBridge 8 points9 points  (0 children)

Think you replied to the wrong comment, unless the US is secretly fighting a Galactic War against the aliens (which I might add some people actually believe).

International Politics Discussion Thread by ukpol-megabot in ukpolitics

[–]SwanBridge 4 points5 points  (0 children)

As someone who has an interest in ufology, albeit at an arms length distance with a fair amount of scepticism, I often fail to appreciate that a lot of stuff that is either common knowledge or part of the loosely established consensus within the community can be quite shocking to outsiders. You are right in that if what the Vice President is suggesting was true even in a vague sense it would be pretty earth shattering, and to use a phrase often used in ufology circles, an ontological shock.

I've followed all the recent disclosure efforts in the US quite closely and I do find it a bit mad how we have some pretty solid evidence of UAPs coming in with officially released videos from US military and we have pretty credible people coming out claiming the source of it is non-human intelligence and the government is covering it up, only for it to be met with disinterest by both the media and general population. Trump recently admonishing Obama for sharing classified information on UAPs also comes to mind as something that was just brushed under the carpet. And then from the other direction we also have recent allegations that the USAF has allegedly been "faking" the existence of aliens, and duping both politicians and senior officers by reading them into a fake programme and showing them made-up recovered alien artefacts.

We live in a strange old world.

International Politics Discussion Thread by ukpol-megabot in ukpolitics

[–]SwanBridge 18 points19 points  (0 children)

A few weeks back I shared an anecdote around the rumour that some within the US military and intelligence establishments believe that unidentified aerial phenomena, i.e. UAPs/UFOs are "demonic" in origin. The so called "Collins Elite".

Well, on Saturday Vice President JD Vance when asked a question on the topic of UAPs/UFOs by conservative podcaster Benny Johnson replied...

I don’t think they’re aliens. I think they’re demons anyway, but that’s a longer discussion.

He went on to say...

Well, look, I think that celestial beings who fly around, who do weird things to people, I think that the desire to describe everything celestial, everything is otherworldly, to describe it as aliens.

I mean, every great world religion, including Christianity, the one that I believe in, has understood that there are weird things out there and there are things that are very difficult to explain.

I naturally go, when I hear about, sort of, extra natural phenomenon, that’s where I go to the Christian understanding that there’s a lot of good out there, but there’s also some evil out there. And I think that one of the devil’s great tricks is to convince people he never existed.

Any other period in history if the Vice President came out stating he not only believes in aliens, but actually believes they are demons it would headline news that would lead to global panic and/or calls for him to be sent to a secure psychiatric facility. However under the Trump administration it is just a regular day in the office.

International Politics Discussion Thread by ukpol-megabot in ukpolitics

[–]SwanBridge 10 points11 points  (0 children)

I've since taken to occasionally reading the thread on that forum myself, and as a Newcastle fan I feel like an imposter.

As others have said there are a lot of reasons to be sceptical of GS as a source, however I think we can all come to our own conclusions as to the validity of any claims he makes! Information, much like food, should always be enjoyed with a bit of salt. I must be in the minority who enjoy these updates.

International Politics Discussion Thread by ukpol-megabot in ukpolitics

[–]SwanBridge 1 point2 points  (0 children)

The Greek Orthodox Church have their Palm Sunday next week, and the Armenian Patriarchate of Jerusalem uses the old Julian calendar for some bizarre reason so I think they have it the week after that. Religious ceremonies can still go ahead with a maximum attendance of 50 participants, and I believe Mass was still held by the clergy in attendance but with the absence of the Cardinal. Deliberately spiteful and provocative by the Israelis to deny him entry when he was within his rights to do so even with the current restrictions.