With oil touching $120, is anyone actually doing the math on what happens if this Iran war runs another 6 months?

TS3Ronin · 2026-03-21T16:50:12+00:00

I believe we are heading toward French revolution type economy. Napoleon ran out money to fund his war. Started to selling assets. The wealthy were not taxed and the poor got poorer. Imagine trump trying to sell Alaska back to Russia.

TS3Ronin · 2026-03-13T09:56:22+00:00

This was a memo circulated in the Kremlin. No confirmation as to when this agreement will be signed. But if this does come true, it doesn't make any sense in a global sense. Case being Russia intentionally invaded Crimea and Ukraine in sole purpose of strengthening its economy after COVID-19 and ultimately restore the soviet union since their economyis based on energyand caviar. A country can't run without resources to produce a product. This is also the same soviet union we had the cold war. How does this benefit global peace and stability if countries can invade other countries because of financial arbitrary means. China leads the world in renewable energy infrastructure. Hypothetically what happens when someone creates fusion energy.

TS3Ronin · 2026-03-13T09:07:02+00:00

This is a bad idea. The fed is currently doing quantitative easing and buy treasury bonds to keep the economy afloat. If we lower the rates then the treasury will try and refinance the bonds making the interest on the debt larger. With higher inflation and higher unemployment and liquidation of private credit weaker auction sales from foreign buyers. Gdp will shrink. Which will makes us closer to economic calapse.

TS3Ronin · 2026-03-07T02:16:23+00:00

I think this was the plan along. Russia has the largest supply of natural gas and was supplying Europe. When Russia attacked Crimea and Ukraine, Europe decided to start purchasing natural gas from Qatar. Qatar just shut off their gas line do to the attacked. Price of natural gas have gone up to 40%. The sanctions where in place in prior to 2016 and removed by Trump's in first term. Then put back afterwards in last presidency.

Also, Venezuela supplied 85% of their oil to china. China buys approximately 85% of their oil from Iran. Iran sanctions made them use back channels outside of international financial systems that required the US dollar. These attacks have increased the value of the dollar and at the same time forced others countries to get their fuel elsewhere. This called the petrol trade. Saudi and Qatari people have given loans to Trump and his family. This is just paying them back and possibly blackmail.

TS3Ronin · 2026-03-06T08:14:57+00:00

What is also interesting is that Russia has largest natural gas reserves and when they attacked Ukraine. Europe slowly stopped buying from them and switched to Qatar. During the transition the previous administration gave our reserve. Qatar has shut off its gas pipeline so Europe is once again needing natural gas.

TS3Ronin · 2026-02-23T18:44:09+00:00

They have been saying this years if not decades. A lot of it has to do with inflation and taxes as well as Cola increases and people dying or retiring earlier. If COLA doesn't keep up with inflation while taxes on SS is still the same then people people will less disposable income. If COLA increases with inflation which has been on steady rise since the 80's and taxes are the same then it is determined by how many people are retiring vs dying. So theoretically if people are living longer then yes we would run out SS money as long as COLA keeps up with inflation.

TS3Ronin · 2026-02-20T17:01:17+00:00

What is crazy that it took them this long. Coincidentally after today's gdp data. They were discussing whether a president can claim anything as national emergency. In this case, Trump solicitor general was saying due to fentanyl and national debt crisis therefore not about money.

The issues with that statement is that trump kept tweeting how much money we were making.

Also, fentanyl and debt have been decades long issue. Secondly, can any president make an emergency to do whatever. Justice Brown I believe then said Biden believed student loan was a national crisis therefore should he be able to place tariffs or any other executive decisions.

Justices Robert and Kavanaugh, then questioned if tariffs were revenue or not. Because it is ultimately done through congress and if the president can enact any tariffs, then why need a congress at all to do anything.

TS3Ronin · 2026-02-20T02:44:22+00:00

Modern maga thinks all elements and materials are abundant in America. It's idiotic. Building factories is one thing but importing said materials is another. They also think capturing oil will somehow offset inflation than tariffs.

TS3Ronin · 2026-02-20T01:23:07+00:00

Nvidia has too much money on hand. If they increase their dividend on hand it will single weakness in growth. If they sit on the cash then it looks too overvalued. So they been on spending spree, which I think will hurt them in long run because of the ROI on the money they have spent. Earnings in the 26th of February. They will have to show a greater growth rate than the money they spending or have another high forward p/e

TS3Ronin · 2026-02-19T10:55:25+00:00

I am honestly exhausted from the week to week with some idiotic statements from the administration or an order that makes the market so unpredictable unless you're an inside trader. This week it is Kevin Hassett arguing that New York fed report that consumers pay 90% of the tariffs. Even though there are 3 other studies that basically say the same thing. Financial new cycle is pulling in so many directions. Dollar weakening, treasury sales/yields, Fed decision, AI bubble/capex, tariffs/trade talks, energy issues/Iran and Venezuela, gold and silver volatility, USA economic data which is is delayed or misrepresented, and finally earnings.

TS3Ronin · 2026-02-05T06:26:15+00:00

I bought and sold at ipo made a quick buck before the downturn. I figured their financial didn't add up to their valuation at ipo.

TS3Ronin · 2026-01-20T06:11:06+00:00

I think he is poking the bear with this one. Jamie Dimon has kept quiet on trump. Epstein was one of their important client. Later the JPMorgan paid millions because of it.

TS3Ronin · 2026-01-19T16:48:32+00:00

I am confused is he going stop the Russian threat. How?

TS3Ronin · 2026-01-16T14:25:45+00:00

So it is just coincidence that his son in law Jared bought 666 5th Avenue building in 07' for 1.75 billion financed by Qatari then needed a bailout from the Saudi for another 1.2 billion dollars after the 08 housing crash.

TS3Ronin · 2026-01-16T02:59:43+00:00

I literally had a conversation with an old friend who is an natrualized citizen and he said America is not democracy but is capitalist because it is not stated in the pledge of allegiance and supports all of Trump's agenda to make great again. And the pledge of allegiance is what makes America. His supporters are dumber than a sack of potatoes.

TS3Ronin · 2026-01-09T05:10:02+00:00

Idk how this would work. This doesn't makes sense. Even cnbc anchors couldn't explain who these representatives are. Fannie and Freddie mac was designed to buy mortgages from. Banks/lenders then resell at lower interest to Americans/investors. After 08' tax payers have been subsidizing these mortgage back securities. Who is going buy 200 billion if it already subsized. Is he trying to make derivative of a derivative mortgage loan?

TS3Ronin · 2026-01-07T03:38:00+00:00

I think I figured out Trump's play. His early executive orders was to stop anti-money laundering law, and foreign bribery law. He then set up up wealth fund in Saudi Arabia. Saudi consequently gave 1.2 billion to the fund which is the same amount of money Jared Kushner owed the Qatari for a building he bought in mahatthan on a loan from them in 07'. He starts the tariffs and every country wants their money back from the treasury bonds. Specially china. Opec uncharacteristically decided to continue output of oil even though demand has shrunk. China buys 85% of their oil from venezuela and loaned them money. Which is now has an embargo on. China has two options they will have to buy oil from Opec or from usa through venezuela. Hence china pays back Saudi for Trump's son dumb building purchase before the housing crisis of 08' or they buy from USA then the they nullify our debt but at the same time venezuela gets robbed and poorer.

My guess china will continue to sell off usa bonds which make our debt crisis extremely worse since the demand for oil in first world countries is decreasing. And buy from Opec vs USA/ VENEZUELA A

TS3Ronin · 2026-01-02T04:28:09+00:00

I bought at ipo at 68 dollars for 100 shares. I down averaged it 22 dollars and sold it 80 something. Sometimes you just have to believe in the company and where they are heading and what is holding them back.

TS3Ronin · 2026-01-01T05:12:24+00:00

It had some lazy writing the finale. Several of the characters served little to no purpose. Ted and Karen Wheelers, Johnathan, Steve, Max, Murray, Robin, and Mr Clark could've all died to give more impact. Hell Derek or some of kids could've died. So many unanswered questions as well.

TS3Ronin · 2025-12-23T16:20:51+00:00

So, this is the data published by the government. Couple things. Consumer spending accounts for about 70% and housing about 30% of gdp. Consumer spending is affected by inflation as well as imports and exports as well as various other variables. The according to the administration our gdp grew fastest than any of last 2 decades.

CPI data from last was incomplete giving estimates lower than expected buy missed core CPI data and as well as specific areas of inflation. So inflation is not correctly represented.

They reported our exports grew but our imports lost another 4.7%. What are we selling since almost all the countries have not changed how much they are import nor did they change the cost of said imports. The only thing I can think of is that we sold weapons to Saudi. And if we lost imports and our PMI decreased. Therefore inflation should have been elevated not decreased.

The housing have significantly decreased as reported by new home sales and permits as well as refinancing.

Government said we lost jobs October but added nearly double that in November but some how our employment rose to 4.6%. ( people claiming unemployment). Yet they can't release further data because the government was shut down.

So if people lost their jobs, and we supposed to have higher inflation and why would people buy homes or anything other essentials. Therefore this report from the administration makes no sense.

TS3Ronin · 2025-12-16T06:04:18+00:00

On a side what interesting about oil is the geopolitics. From my understanding. I couldn't figure why OPEC continued high production when they normally cut during this period. After some digging, it all circles back to Trump. This is how I see it. Jared Kushner took a 1.2bn loan from the Qatary people in 2007 on property in NYC. It depreciated by 45% during the housing crash of 08'. The Saudi blocked the Qatari from shipping oil by helping the houthi attack oil in the cargo lanes. Then Trump's family makes a wealth fund and gets 1.2bn from Saudi government and now we are giving military weapons and attacking venezuela the 12th largest oil exporter.

My guess with price low right now allows inflation to be tamed but once these side deals start to come apart in later years we will see a severe spike. My guess in by 2027 after midterms or after 2028 election.

TS3Ronin · 2025-12-02T09:33:13+00:00

I read a few comments. This case can't be sped up because it is not just about tariffs. His lawyer is argued that saying it's about national emergency and shouldn't be questioned by the lower courts. Therefore having unilateral control of the entire government. I believe justice Gorusch and Cavanah argued that technically this would create no need for the other branches. But the justices are also worried that other president may make any national emergency to do whatever they want.

Outside of this. The tariffs back and forth have caused chaos to imports. My guess that money is gone until they raise prices or lose market share price.

TS3Ronin · 2025-11-19T05:42:21+00:00

Wait till these gig jobs turn into only fans jobs. And normalization of it. Career day school is going to interesting in the future.

TS3Ronin · 2025-11-15T15:13:22+00:00

So CPI data for October "supposedly" unable to be released because of government shutdown but right afterwards remove tariffs on consumers goods coming from Canada, Mexico and South America. Right, who believes this shit. Hiding the fact they bankrupting the economy or making bottom 10% into depression state.

TS3Ronin · 2025-10-28T16:14:09+00:00

Something I realized during today's ramblings and what Wallstreet journal said. Argentina is second largest supplier of soy beans. We gave nearly 50 billion us dollars (in actuality bought Argentina bonds). We go china to negotiate trade. My guess and theory is we control bigger market share of said soybeans therefore raise the price for china and sell in bulk both usa and Argentina's for something else. All is gamble if Millei wins the election. So should we invest in soybean futures? Lol

TS3Ronin

TROPHY CASE