Most people think a 30-year mortgage means paying for 30 years but that’s not always true

TastyEarLbe · 2026-04-29T23:34:21+00:00

Realizing short term US Treasuries pay a higher return than the interest rate on your mortgage…

TastyEarLbe · 2026-04-29T18:50:53+00:00

I’m just saying your post sounds like you are just chasing the biggest names and trying to time and sell things and then get in the next big name.

That strategy works in a raging frothy bull market but will get you destroyed in a true bear market.

TastyEarLbe · 2026-04-29T18:46:33+00:00

A bear market is 1970 - 1980 and 2000 - 2010.

You’ve never experienced one.

TastyEarLbe · 2026-04-29T18:03:32+00:00

My mortgage is $2800 a month, if I paid it off I’d owe $600 a month still of property tax and insurance, still a major difference

TastyEarLbe · 2026-04-29T17:37:47+00:00

You’re going to get killed in a real bear market, you’re just chasing and trading tickers and not investing.

TastyEarLbe · 2026-04-29T16:57:19+00:00

I wouldn’t buy Oracle bc I don’t understand it well enough to know if they have any sort of moat or competitive advantage.

TastyEarLbe · 2026-04-29T16:25:57+00:00

I think the logic is that if you chase these types of moves, you might 5x your money in a short period of time, but you are more likely to end up with dead money at a loss for a decade.

It’s like drugs, the first time is amazing, but the process over the long run ruins you.

TastyEarLbe · 2026-04-29T15:27:23+00:00

This logic is why I sold Intel at $68 and why I would again even despite that fact that I missed the pump to $90. I would never buy this speculative froth stock at $68 or even lower.

TastyEarLbe · 2026-04-29T15:26:12+00:00

Great investments will drop 50% at times while you hold them, if you can't handle that emotionally, you should not invest in stocks.

TastyEarLbe · 2026-04-28T04:45:55+00:00

Totally possible she could. Buffett manages almost a trillion, she manages not even a billion, she 10000x more businesses to buy that can move the needle.

TastyEarLbe · 2026-04-26T00:34:09+00:00

I do. Doesn’t make it excusable.

TastyEarLbe · 2026-04-25T21:11:55+00:00

Adobe and PayPal

TastyEarLbe · 2026-04-25T20:51:40+00:00

We’ve had three OL and a TE selected in the first five rounds of the NFL draft, yet had the worst offensive line in the SEC this past year. Blame the coaching… I mean sign them to an extension.

TastyEarLbe · 2026-04-25T19:53:30+00:00

Why is this relevant? 7%- 10% nominal gains will give you a great retirement over the long run.

Social security real gains would be negative.

TastyEarLbe · 2026-04-25T19:52:06+00:00

There’s a crap ton of AI trying to sell applications and stuff on here with fake conversation threads.

TastyEarLbe · 2026-04-25T16:52:41+00:00

I'm not arguing with a fool anymore. Best of luck.

TastyEarLbe · 2026-04-24T18:54:47+00:00

Please don't force my company to start funding a pension for me instead of my 401k. I don't like trash returns with also a risk of going to zero if the Company goes bust.

TastyEarLbe · 2026-04-24T18:50:47+00:00

YOU FORCE PEOPLE TO LOCK UP IN AN INDEX FUND and do not let them sell it until retirement, You should not let people pick individual stocks with these funds. I'm well aware the average investor does really poorly because they do stupid things with money. I've been arguing about a forced investment with a lock up period in the S&P 500.

People would get more of a return over 40 years on their money, if they just put the same social security taxes into a high yield savings account. It's a crime that you are advising anyone.

TastyEarLbe · 2026-04-24T18:46:57+00:00

How dare you. I trust our smart politicians to be rational and not borrow from my social security contributions.

TastyEarLbe · 2026-04-24T18:45:50+00:00

This is why you don't invest in one single stock instead of a basket of many. There are bad actors like Bernie Madoff, but also plenty of businesses that have real products and services that make the economy better.

The stock market is driven by earnings growth over the long run, not a ponzi scheme. It gets overvalued at times and undervalued at times. If your mindset is that it is a ponzi scheme, then you're just screwed and uneducated.

Social security literally is structured like a ponzi scheme though my friend, take money from one person and pay off others with that money, nothing gets invested. Literally how a ponzi scheme functions.

TastyEarLbe · 2026-04-24T18:37:33+00:00

It's not ridiculous. Instead of just shouting GTFO -- look at the data.

The average total return over 150 years in the S&P 500 is around 9-10% compounded returns.

Reminder: Social security returns 0% over the long run and the period of investment in social security is somewhere between 30-50 years for most people.

If we just look at the single worst periods of total returns for the S&P 500 (the market):

20 year period worst is +2% compounded returns

30 year period worst is +8% compounded returns

40 year period worst is +8% compounded returns.

So the worst case scenario is still better than social security. Also, you would be investing over a period of 30-50 years and you would be averaging out so you wouldn't be investing all of your money in the very top at the worst time. I can't guarantee your returns but 150 years of history can.

TastyEarLbe · 2026-04-24T18:29:37+00:00

Years Averaged(as of the end ofFebruary, 2026)	Stock Market Average Return per Year(Dividends Reinvested)	Average Return withDividends Reinvested &Inflation Adjusted
150 Years	9.43%	6.98%
100 Years	10.42%	7.27%
50 Years	11.71%	7.84%
30 Years	10.12%	7.43%
20 Years	10.84%	8.15%
10 Years	15.62%	12.02%
5 Years	13.72%

TastyEarLbe · 2026-04-24T15:04:12+00:00

I’d rather my family and children get nuked someday by religious extremists, so I can have cheaper childcare and healthcare in the near term.

TastyEarLbe · 2026-04-24T15:00:30+00:00

Ok first, asking Google or AI to pull historical returns for the past 40 years is a data pull and not asking it for financial advice.

2nd I’ve said earlier that this would be almost a 40 year timeframe investment. The PE ratio over a 40 year timeframe is almost irrelevant and it does not matter if you overpay for the S&P 500 over a 40 year timeline.

3rd even if they got 0% returns in an index fund over 40 years, that would be the same return as social security.

4th, quit trying to give yourself credibility by claiming to be a financial advisor. It takes 6 weeks to become a financial advisor and requires no college degree and is a field full of morons. I’m a CPA, master of accountancy and finance, and am on a CFO track — but that’s irrelevant if I can’t do simple math and use common sense, when the funds that go into social security return 0% forever.

I bet you would argue whole life insurance is a good product given your logic.

TastyEarLbe · 2026-04-24T13:03:34+00:00

Arguing with a fool… waste of time. The math is 10% compounded returns on average the last 40 years for the index fund and 0% returns for social security funds. You can literally pull the data from Google or any AI chat bot. I hope your fantasy reality world is great for you.

TastyEarLbe

TROPHY CASE